Giants Win Big, Up $20

The Giants offense continued to be in sync and their defense finally stepped up. Those front four looked better then they have all year and Eli Manning is playing some of the best football of his career. It looks like he has taken his game to a whole new level this year. I'll be out of town for the next week or so, so I'm not sure if I'll have any games. But we'll see.

Also, is it baseball season yet? I need to catch up to the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)
S&P 500: $1114 (21% return)

Today's Games

None

Good Games Yesterday, But No Bets

It was a pretty exciting day yesterday and I'm glad I didn't bet any games. The couple of game I was thinking of did not turn out right. But I do like the game tonight. The playoff race in the AFC is so cloudy right now while the NFC is basically set. The Giants are the only team not currently in a playoff slot that still has a chance.

Portfolio: $884 (-4% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)

Today's Game

NY Giants @ Washington (+3)

This game looks like a trap, but I'm not buying it. I like the Giants in a must win game. They have proven that they are one of the better road teams over the last couple years. It looked like last week they had a good rhythm on offense and I see them keeping that up. The Redskins are playing better, but I can see them getting run over by a hungry team. I have no problem giving the points on the road.

Bet

$22 NYG -3

No Games Today

I don't see any games I like. This week looks tough as there are a lot of high lines. The only low home dog is tomorrow night and I might actually like the Giants, but for today I do not see any good bets. Check back tomorrow though as I'll probably bet that game.

Portfolio: $884 (-4% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)

Today's Games

None

Rough Day, Down $44

Wow, that’s pretty tough to go 0-4. It’s just as tough as going 4-0. I guess I am just not seeing things right. I was going to bet on the 49ers tonight, but when things are going bad its best just to take a step back instead of trying to get what you lost back. There is all the time in the world to gain losses back, so whenever you feel the urge to gain a loss back it means you should take a step back.

The Bengals really surprised me, and it’s obvious their weakness is the inability to stretch the field. They do not have a home run threat in the passing game as Chad Johnson has become more of a possession receiver. The main reason they lost was that they could not stop Adrian Peterson, but no team really can. The Bucs game looked like a trap, but the trap never went off. I bet if Gradkowski didn’t get hurt the Raiders game would have went differently. You can’t really do anything about injuries. The Eagles got two scores, defense and special teams, that proved to be too much for the Giants to overcome.

Portfolio: $884 (-4% return)
S&P 500: $1106 (20.1% return)

Today’s Games

None

NFL Today

There are a handful and games I like today and hopefully I will do better than last week. I really don't want to fall below even again.

Portfolio: $928 (0.8% return)

S&P 500: $1106 (20.1% return)

Today's Games

Cincinnati @ Minnesota (-7)

NY Jets @ Tampa Bay (+4)

Washington @ Oakland (+1)

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (+1)

I'm surprised the line is this high since the Bengals defense is so good. I don't think the Vikings will be able to put up a lot of points, and the Bengals play a ball controlling game so the game should be close. I'm not sure who will win, but I like it to be close. Plus this is the time of year that Favre seems to wear down.

The Jets are back in the playoff hunt and have a solid running game and defense, but on the road against a team that seems to be improving might not be good for them. I like this game to be close and the Bucs to pull it out in the end. The Jets struggles in the passing game will do them in.

The Redskins and Raiders have both been playing better recently and this should be a good game today in a game that means nothing. I like the Raiders at home since this is the first time the Redskins have had to head West for a game. Usually if a team is not used to the trip they will lose.

In what should be a good game tonight I like the home team. I'll take Eli Manning over Donovan McNabb in a big game any day.

Bets

$11 CIN +7

$11 TB +4

$11 OAK +1

$11 NYG +1

Packers Win A Sloppy Game

I'm down $11 from yesterday and $24 for the weekend, not a good week. I was right about this being a tough week, but I was wrong about thinking I can win. As of now, next week does not look too easy as there are a lot of home favorites.

Portfolio: $928 (0.8% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)

Today's Games

None

2-3, Down $13

Not a good day yesterday, but also not a horrible day. I should have stuck with all the low home dogs. Also, I'm pretty sure 10 out of 14 dogs covered yesterday, so it was probably a good day for sports books as most people bet favorites.

Portfolio: $939 (2% return)
S&P 500: $1106 (20.1% return)

Today's Game

Baltimore @ Green Bay (-3.5)

This should be another good Monday Night matchup as both teams are in the thick of the playoff race. I believe the Packers will struggle on defense as injuries are catching up the them. The Ravens defense is not what it used to be, but they still have big play capability. The Ravens offense is led by Ray Rice and I think he will have a huge game tonight. Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay passing attack is good, but they will be one dimensional tonight. I expect this to be a higher scoring game, with the Ravens able to move the ball better.

Bets

$11 BAL +3.5

NFL Today

This week looks pretty tough, but I should be able to make some gains for my portfolio.

Portfolio: $952 (3.4% return)

S&P 500: $1106 (20.1% return)

Today's Games

Houston @ Jacksonville (+2)

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-7)

San Diego @ Cleveland (+14)

Dallas @ New York Giants (+1)

Minnesota @ Arizona (+3.5)

In a game that will be huge in shaping the AFC Wild Card, I like the more talented team. Although I generally do not bet on low road favorites, I think the Texas are a very talented team that struggle to win against superior foes. They seem to win games that they should, and the Jaguars have been playing a little over their head this year. The Jags are an average team, but not much better. I feel comfortable laying the 2 points on the talented road team.

The Colts just find a way to win every week, but I believe that will come to end end sometime soon. The Texans had that game last week and choked it away at home. The Titans are playing as well as any team right now and the way to beat the Colts is to control the ball and be more physical than them. I think the Titans can do that. I don't know if they'll win, but I like the 7 points.

The Chargers/Browns game will be a blowout. With the Browns losing Shaun Rogers they now have no threat on the defense, and they already had no threat on offense. Look for the Chargers to pressure Quinn like crazy and dominate the entire game.

I like the Giants in this game because are the low home dog. I think these teams are pretty even, so I'll take the home team.

In what should be a good game tonight, I like the home dog getting 3.5 points. Warner should be playing and the Arizona defense should slow down the Vikings offense.

Bets

$11 HOU -2

$11 TEN +7

$11 SD -14

$11 NYG +1

$11 ARI +3.5

Off Week, 1-2 Down $12

I thought I would at least go 2-2 yesterday but the Texans choked and the Steelers played way better than I thought with a young quarterback making his first start. The game tonight should be a good one, and if you only watched ESPN the last week you would have thought this was the only game on the schedule for Week 12. I'm staying away from this game because I'm not sold on the Saints defense, so I expect this to be a shootout with the team that plays best in the fourth quarter to win. The Saints have been getting interceptions this year which is more of a luck stat so I do not see them keeping it up. The Patriots have one of their weakest defenses in years, but they are playing better every week.

Portfolio: $952 (3.4% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5 % return)

Today's Games

None

NFL Today

These next few weeks are best weeks in the NFL as many teams will see what they are made of. This is also when most gamblers lose a lot of money.

Portfolio: $964 (4.7% return)

S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)

Today's Games

Indianapolis @ Houston (+3.5)

Miami @ Buffalo (+3.5)

Arizona @ Tennessee (-3)

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-7.5)

The Colts have been walking the tightrope recently and I look for them to fall off this week. They will be without Dwight Freeney today and that will let Schaub have the time to pick apart a soft secondary. The Colts have a good defense and generally do not blitz because Freeney and Mathis get such good pressure on the QB. Their defense is based around the front four getting pressure. The absence of Freeney will have an effect on the whole line. The Texans are coming off the hard fought loss and should be eager to get back on the field and pick up a win to stay in the playoff race. I'll take the points.

Miami is without their best player, Ronnie Brown, but Ricky Williams stepped it up against the Panthers last Thursday. I do not see him doing that again. The Bills are a team that doesn't quit, and it looks like Fitzpatrick is gaining some confidence along with the team. I like the Bills with the points at home.

It looks like Kurt Warner will play today and that is huge for the Cardinals, but they happen to be facing one of the hottest teams at home. Vince Young seems to do whatever it takes to win and Chris Johnson is maybe the biggest home run threat in the game. The Titans defense has stepped it up a notch, and they will be tough to beat at home. The Cardinals looked to have taken the step as a good team with a solid defense and wins on the road this year, I just think the Titans have too much going for them right now.

The Steelers are in trouble as Troy Polumalu is out again and so is Ben Roethlisberger. They are starting rookie Dennis Dixon at QB and we all know what the Ravens defense does to rookie QB's. I like the Ravens big as I do not see the Steelers scoring too many points.

Bets

$11 HOU +3.5

$11 BUF +3.5

$11 TEN -3

$11 BAL -7.5

Titans Win, Up $10

That was a pretty good game last night. Vince Young looks like he did his rookie season, except better. And it looks like the Texans missed Owen Daniels. I'm slowly catching up to the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $964 (4.7% return)
S&P 500: $1106 (20% return)

Today's Games

None

1-0, Up $10

It was an entertaining day in the NFL yesterday, and I ended up gaining $10. The Ravens just could not get the ball in the end zone and Flacco’s pick at the end of the game lost it. I’ll take a push on that game, but I think I should have won. The Chargers did just as I said and dominated the Broncos. I like when bad teams get off to good starts because their lines are artificially inflated for a few weeks like you have seen with the Broncos. I look for their lines to be normal now. And vice versa with the Chargers. They got off to slow start and their lines were artificially low for a few weeks, but from now on they should be normal.

Portfolio: $954 (3.6% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)

Today’s Games

Tennessee @ Houston (-4)

This should be a good Monday Night Football game. The Titans are riding a three game winning streak and the Texans are off to their best start in franchise history. The Titans made the switch to Vince Young and it has paid off. They are back to their ball controlling ways, but their defense has not been good although it has been playing better lately. Chris Johnson has been a beast lately and I do not see him slowing down. The Texans high powered offense will be hurt with Owen Daniels out for the year as he was Schaub’s safety blanket. The running back position is also up in the air with Slaton’s ineffectiveness and fumbling problems. I like the fact that Vince Young is playing in Texas and the Titans are playing with the confidence they showed last year. The Texans will turn the ball over at least one time and if the Titans can win the turnover battle I see them winning this game, so I’ll take the points.

Bets

$11 TEN +4

NFL Today

Portfolio: $944 (2.5% return)

S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)

Today's Games

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (+2)

San Diego @ Denver (+6)

The Colts/Ravens game should be a good one. The Colts look the keep their perfect record and the Ravens need a win to keep pace in the AFC playoff race. The Colts are coming off two hard fought games in a row, especially last week against the Patriots. The Ravens are coming off an easy win against the Browns are should be fully prepared for the Colts. The Colts are a little banged up and after two emotional games I look for a let down this week. The Ravens should be more than prepared for the Colts and I think their physical style will be too much for the Colts this week.

San Diego is a really talented team that is playing better every week. The Broncos are the opposite and will most likely be without Kyle Orton this week. I like the Chargers in a blowout. I almost backed away from this game because the line jumped from 2.5 to 6, but the more I think about it the more I think the Chargers will win big.

Bets

$11 BAL +2

$11 SD -6

3-0, Up $40

I finally passed the break even mark of $921 and hopefully it will be permanent. I’m starting to get a feel for the NFL now. My betting strategy varies greatly from baseball to football as baseball is a numbers game and football is not. Although I had the most confidence in my San Diego bet yesterday, the Falcons/Panthers game looked like the biggest trap game and that is why I liked the Panthers. The middle of the NFL season is where I believe most people fail, so it’s smart to go against the public.

I’m not going to bet on the Monday Night game tonight between the Ravens and Browns, but I would lean with the Ravens. I’m a Browns fan and know them better than any team. Brady Quinn is the starter again and I think he’s got a long way to go to be a serviceable quarterback. Their skill position players are way below average, and our leading tackler is out for the season. The Ravens on the other hand are almost in a must win situation, but I don’t really know how Flacco will react on the big Monday Night Stage. I think the Ravens will win by 30 points as Quinn will not be able to move the ball and the Browns defense will tire, but Monday Night Football changes teams and players. I’ll stay away from this game.

Portfolio: $944 (2.5% return)
S&P 500: $1093 (18.7% return)

Today’s Games

None

NFL Today

I'm hoping to break the $921 mark for the first time in a while.

Portfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)

S&P 500: $1093 (18.7% return)

Today's Games

Jacksonville @ New York Jets (-7)

Atlanta @ Carolina (+2)

Philadelphia @ San Diego (pk)

In a battle of two average teams I think a line of 7 is pretty high. The Jaguars have solid coaching and play a conservative game. The Jets are also a conservative team so I do not expect to see a blowout. I'll take the 7 points in this close matchup.

This should be a good game even though DeAngelo Williams is most likely out. The Falcons have Roddy White and Michael Jenkins banged up, but it looks like they will play. If the Panthers do not turn the ball over like they have been in the past I like them to win the game. I'm not too sure how well the Falcons are on the road yet and Jonathan Stewart should have a solid game as the featured back.

The Eagles and Donovan McNabb always struggle when they go to the west coast. The Chargers are one of the most talented teams in the league and seem to be improving every week. I like more talented team at home.

Bets

$11 JAC +7

$11 CAR +2

$22 SD pk

Steelers Win, Up $20

I'm starting to make a comeback. I probably won't have any games until the weekend.

Porfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)
S&P 500: $1093 (18.7% return)

Today's Games

None

2-1, Up $9

Not a bad day yesterday, but I was really surprised that the Titans won. One thing about Vince Young is that he wins games. It looks like they are playing their typical ball controlling game. Hopefully this will be the start of an upward streak for me as try to catch up to the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $884 (-4 % return)
S&P 500: $1069 (16.1% return)

Today's Games

Pittsburgh @ Denver (+3)

In what looks like a great game tonight I like the Steelers to handle the Broncos pretty easily. The Steelers are a solid team that has found a stud power running back in Rashard Mendenhall to go along with a solid passing game. Polamalu is getting heathly and their defense is tough. The Broncos are really not that good even though they got off to a 6-0 start. They don't have a good running game, their passing game is average, and their defense is not as good as the media says. I don't like betting against home dogs getting little points as they are usually trap games, but I think this one is a good play.

Bet

$22 PIT -3

3 Games Today

This time of the year is slow for me betting wise. For football I'll usually only bet on NFL games, and I'm going to try to get into college basketball in the winter. So don't be surprised if my blog is only updated once or twice a week.

Portfolio: $875 (-5% return)

S&P 500: $1069 (16.1% return)

Today's Games

Houston @ Indianapolis (-8)

Tennessee @ San Francisco (-5)

San Diego @ New York Giants (-5.5)

Both teams are banged up in the Texans/Colts game, but I think the Colts injuries will have a bigger effect. They are starting 2 rookie corners against a solid receiving corps and a solid quarterback. Missing Owen Daniels will really hurt the Texans, but I look for Walter to step up. The Colts are a really good team, I just see them struggling and possibly losing their first game of the year.

The 49ers are almost in a must win game after a hot start to the season. The Titans are coming off their first win and have made the switch to Vince Young. The Titans are a running team, but the 49ers are a really good defensive team so I do not see the Titans scoring too many points. The Titans defense has been under average this year and the 49ers seem to be improving offensively every week. I like the 49ers in an easy win.

The Chargers/Giants game will be a good one, and I have a feeling the Chargers will come out on top. It think they are the more talented team and if their defense can step up they will be really good. I'll take the points here.

Bets

$11 HOU +8

$11 SF -5

$11 SD +5.5

No Action Last Night

Game 6 of the World Series is tonight, but I'm staying away from it. I'm not sure how well Pedro will pitch and I seem to think Pettitte is not a big game pitcher. I think the Phillies really need a big game out of Rollins and Victorino. The Yankees just need to get through the 7th inning with the lead as they will bring in Rivera for 2. It should be interesting.

Portfolio: $875 (-5% return)
S&P 500: $1045 (13.5% return)

Today's Games

None

No Action Last Night

The Phillies live to see another day.

Portfolio: $875 (-5% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Phillies Lose Third Straight - Down $20

The Phillies and myself continued our losing streaks last night. At least the baseball game was a good game. That was a heck of a play by Damon in the ninth. It should be a another great game tonight and I don't see the Phillies losing 4 straight, but I'm staying away from it because I have not been seeing baseball games clearly for over a month now. The Monday Night Football game also looks to be good, but I'm staying away from that too. If I had to pick I would take the Falcons and the points. My portfolio has dropped to the lowest level in it's history, so I better pick it up.

Portfolio: $875 (-5% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Phillies Lose - Down $20

Cole Hamels once again struggled and the Yankees did not look tight after A-Rod got that lucky homerun call. It should be a good game tonight. There are no NFL games that I like today. Except for Houston all of the favaorties are at home and most of the lines are high.

Portfolio: $895 (-2.8% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)

Today's Games

New York Yankees (-170) @ Philadelphia (+160)

In Game 4 of the World Series CC Sabathia is matched up against Joe Blanton. As you can see, the analysis for end of the season and postseason games is different than regular season games. End of the season and postseason games have was more human element involved and therefore are harder to predict. It's kind of like football. So in this game I believe CC will lay an egg and that is why I like the Phillies.

Bets

$20 PHI +160

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $915 (-0.7% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)

Today's Games

New York Yankees (-120) @ Philadelphia (+110)

In Game 3 of the World Series Andy Pettitte is matched up against Cole Hamels. Pettitte has pitched well this postseason and wrapped up the ALCS against the Angels last week. Hamels has continued to struggle as he is giving up a higher than normal amount of hits. The Phillies have been really tough at home the last 2 postseasons and the Yankees still look like they are playing tighter than normal. I like the Phillies to take Game 3 at home as I think they are the better all around team and have more confidence.

Bets

$20 PHI +110

Yankees Win - Down $30

Pedro pitched well but Burnett dominated. I did not think Burnett would dominate the Phillies, and I did not think the Phillies would only score 1 run. Game 3 will be interesting with Andy Pettitte facing Cole Hamels. A win last night would have a been a big boost to my portfolio, putting it at $999 (8.5% return), but instead I fall back into the negative. The breakout is coming.

Portfolio: $915 (-0.7% return)
S&P 500: $1066 (15.7% return)

Today's Games

None

Phillies Win - Up $45

Cliff Lee dominated just like he has all postseason and CC finally looked like his old choking self. He did not look sharp at all and he should have given up more runs as he was consistently missing locations and pitching from behind the whole game. I think the Yankees are in some trouble as they looked tight last night and will most likely be that way again tonight.

Portfolio: $945 (2.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today's Games

Philadelphia (+180) @ New York Yankees (-200)

In Game 2 of the World Series Pedro Martinez is matched up against AJ Burnett. Both pitchers have been average this postseason with Pedro being a little better. Burnett has good stuff but continues to struggle with control. Pedro has a little left in the tank and his control is still way above average. The Phillies look like they are playing loose and they generally beat up pitchers who can't locate their pitches. I am sticking by my theory that the Yankees seem to be happy just to make the World Series and seem to have no energy left. Combine that with the fact that they looked really tight and I see the Phillies winning easily tonight.

Bets

$30 PHI +180

No Action Yesterday

I was glad to see the NBA season start. I will very rarely bet on NBA games, but I will follow it. This season is going to be one of the better one's in recent history. The NBA is back to having a good product.

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)

Today's Games

Philadelphia (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)

In Game 1 of the World Series Cliff Lee is matched up against CC Sabathia in what should be a great matchup between two former Indians and CY Young winners. Cliff Lee has been dominant this postseason but has been helped out by a low hit rate. His other indicators are solid. Sabathia has also been dominant and his indicators look solid, but I am still sticking by my theory that he will choke. I also feel like the Yankees are just happy to get to the World Series and gave everything they got to get here. I think the Phillies expected to get here. I would not be surprised to see the Phillies take the Series in 5. I think the Phillies are a great bet tonight at +150.

Bets

$30 PHI +150

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1067 (15.9% return)

Today's Games

None

Horrible Day, 0-4 Down $43

Wow I did not expect that. The Texans could not put the game away in the 3rd and the Dolphins somehow blew the cover. Who knows what is up with Carolina, and the Cowboys looked sharp coming off a bye. For some reason there are more lopsided games in the NFL this year than I can remember. I think it may be due to the quarterbacks. There are a decent amount of good ones and a decent amount of bad ones, with not too many in the middle.

The Yankees advance to the World Series and it should be a good one. I give the edge to the Phillies, and I still believe CC Sabathia will choke.

My chart is not looking too good lately.

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1080 (17.3% return)

Today's Games

None

ALCS Game 6 Postponed

No action last night due to rain, but I still like the Angels at the same odds.

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)

S&P 500: $1080 (17.3% return)

Today's Games

Los Angels Angels (+170) @ New York Yankees (-190)

San Francisco @ Houston (-3)

Buffalo @ Carolina (-7)

New Orleans @ Miami (+7)

Atlanta @ Dallas (-4)

See yesterday's post for analysis on the baseball game.

The 49ers/Texans game is a matchup of good defense vs good offense and bad offense vs bad defense. The Texans have an explosive offense and the 49ers have a tough defense. The 49ers get Michael Crabtree, although he probably won't have much of an impact. They also get Frank Gore back, but he may still be limited by his ankle. I like the Texans at home as I do not think the 49ers can hold them for their anemic offense.

The Bills have a lot of problems on offense mainly due to horrible offensive line and quarterback play, and last week they let up over 300 yards rushing in an overtime win against the Jets. They face the Panthers who had two 100 yard backs last week and plan on doing that again this week. I see the Panthers controlling the clock in an easy win. I'll take the Panthers -7.

The Saints have been the best team in the league so far and are coming off an impressive victory over the Giants last week. The Dolphins are coming off a bye and have a tough ball controlling offense and a decent defense. They play very physical style of football that I'm not sure the Saints have seen. The best defense against a high powered offense like the Saints is a ball controlling offense. The Saints have been getting a lot of turnovers this year, averaging around 3 per game, and that has really helped out their offense. The Dolphins do not turn the ball over so I do not expect the Saints to continue getting turnovers. I like the rested Dolphins +7 at home against the talk of the league right now. Another reason why I like this game is because ESPN has been hyping up the Saints.

I like Atlanta in this game as I think they are one of the better teams in the NFC. The Cowboys are falling apart at all levels and I think there is too much pressure on them right now.

Bets

$10 LAA +170

$11 HOU -3

$11 CAR -7

$11 MIA +7

$11 ATL +4

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)

S&P 500: $1080 (17.3% return)

Today's Games

Los Angeles Angels (+170) @ New York Yankees (-190)

In Game 6 of the ALCS Joe Saunders is matched up against Andy Pettitte in what should be a great game. Saunders pitched well against the Yankees earlier in the series while Pettitte labored a little. The Angels have been making uncharacteristic mistakes and are having problems scoring runs. The Yankees have been playing loose and seem to be having fun. This game will be a little different and I would not be surprised to see the Yankees a little tighter than normal. I think the Yankees have just a slightly better chance to win, but with the current odds I believe the Angels are a good play.

Bets

$10 LAA +170

No Action Yesterday

The Angels will not go down easily. I thought they were done when the Yankees scored 6 in the top of the 7th, but they fought back.

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $1093 (18.7% return)

Today's Games

None

Phillies In World Series

My portfolio gained $20 as the Phillies advanced to the World Series. The Yankees will most likely advance too and it will make for a great Series with the edge going to the Phillies.

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $1082 (17.5% return)

Today's Games

None, although I would not be surprised to see the Angels take this one.

No Action Yesterday

Well the Yankees look like they will be heading to the World Series as they are playing loose and with confidence. The Phillies have a chance to wrap up their series tonight at home with their ace on the mound.

Portfolio: $923 (0.2% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)

Today's Games

Los Angeles Dodgers (+130) @ Philadelphia (-150)

With the Phillies up 3 games to 1 Vicente Padilla is matched up against Cole Hamels. Padilla has been a real find for the Dodgers late in the season and has pitched really well this postseason, but his current success is not sustainable. Hamels has uncharacteristically struggled this postseason but he and the Phillies smell blood and should put the Dodgers away tonight at home.

Bets

$30 PHI -150

Phillies Win - Up $20

I'm back in the black, but I still have a long way to go to catch the surging S&P 500. I'll get there though.

Portfolio: $923 (0.2% return)
S&P 500: $ 1098 (19.2% return)

Today's Games

None

2-1, Up $9

I was surprised the Giants/Saints game didn’t live up to the hype as the Saints dominated from the start, but the other big matchup between the Ravens and Vikings was pretty good. The Jets continued their freefall after ESPN basically anointed them a top team after their 3-0 start. Sanchez really struggled and maybe he really did need another year in college as Pete Carroll said last year. The Eagles laid their typical egg against a team they should blow out, and I put that all on McNabb. The Bengals were outplayed from the start in an obvious let down game. I have no clue what happened to Seattle, but that’s probably the product of Hasselbeck not getting regular reps in practice.

Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today’s Games

Los Angeles Dodgers (+120) @ Philadelphia (-130)

In Game 4 of the NLCS Randy Wolf is matched up against Joe Blanton. Wolf has been pitching bad for at least a month now and I don’t see it turning around. He was lucky not to let up more runs and get the loss against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLDS. Blanton struggled down the stretch as his control was bad, but he hasn’t started in a couple weeks and his arm should be fresh. This might be a high scoring game and I like the Phillies to score more runs.

Bets

$26 PHI -130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $894 (-2.9% return)

S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today's Games

Los Angeles Dodgers (+160) @ Philadelphia (-170)

Houston @ Cincinnati (-5)

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-3)

In Game 3 of the NLCS Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Cliff Lee. Kuroda is a solid pitcher who pitched well down the stretch but did not pitch in the NLDS due to an injury. He will be making his first start in 3 weeks today, and could be a little rusty. Lee has been outright dominant in the postseason so far and is showing no signs of letting up. I like the Phillies at home as they should have more than enough firepower this game.

The Texans have a high powered offense and an under average defense and the Bengals have an average offense and an above average defense. The Bengals seem to play to their level of competition and all their games have been close this year. They also struggle on special teams, especially on field goals. If Cincinnati wins this game I do not think it will be a blowout, so the Texans +5 look like a pretty good pick here.

The Giants/Saints game should be a pretty good game, but I think the Giants have the edge. The Saints are not too god coming off bye's and the Giants have a pretty solid defense. Manning has taken his game to a new level with his young receivers and the running game will start to click. The Saints are an elite offensive team, but I still do not think their defense can slow down the Giants. They have been getting a lot of interceptions this year and Manning is pretty good about not throwing any.

Bets

$17 PHI -170

$11 HOU +5

$11 NYG +3

Angels Lose, CC Dominates For A Change

Wow, maybe CC has turned the corner but I still wouldn't be surprised to see him go out and clam up later in this postseason.

Portfolio: $894 (-2.9% return)

S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today's Games

None

I will have a couple NFL games tomorrow and possibly the baseball game.

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1097 (19.1% return)

Today’s Games

Los Angeles Angels (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)

After a quiet week I finally see a game I like. John Lackey is matched up against CC Sabathia in Game 1 of the ALCS. Lackey struggled down the stretch of the regular season but pitched great against the Red Sox in the ALDS. His strikeouts and walks were down at the end of the season and in his start against the Red Sox. The strikeouts being down worries me a little but less walks are a good sign. He is a big game pitcher who has had success in the postseason throughout his career. He definitely will not go out and lay an egg. Sabathia was dominant down the stretch of the regular season and dominated the Twins in the ALDS. Believe it or not that was his first dominant postseason start of his career. Being an Indians fan I have seen him pitch most of his career and I can tell you that he is not a big game pitcher. Even in the regular season if there was a big game he wouldn’t deliver. I was actually not that upset when the Indians traded him last year because I knew he has never won the big game and I did not see him turning it around. In all of his previous postseason starts he clams up and loses his control. In 2007 he walked 37 batters in 241 innings, but in the postseason that year he walked 13 in 15 1/3 innings. The Indians probably would have won the World Series that year if CC was somewhat decent. The Angels have a veteran lineup that is aware of CC’s postseason struggles and will make him work. If CC believes this is a big game then he will struggle. I think the Angels at +150 are a great value play. I’m betting my maximum amount of $40, or 4.3%.

Bets

$40 LAA +150

No Action Yesterday

Another slow day in sports and the S&P 500 had a nice day. I am staying away from the baseball game tonight as game 1's are usually unpredictable. Hamels has struggled lately even though his indicators are good but he has pitched well against the Dodgers this year. Kershaw has pitched really well lately after missing some time due to injury. I think this game is a coin flip.

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1092 (18.6% return)

Today's Games

None

No Action Yesterday

There was absolutely nothing sports wise on TV last night and not much going on tonight also. Here's something to think about. If you had to make one bet on an NFL game to double up your money would you pick the better team laying the points? I think over 90% of people would do that even though the line is supposed to make the game even. It's hard to bet on the weaker team with the points and that is why most people lose over time on football.

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1073 (16.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Miami Wins - Up $10

My prediction was spot on as the Jets defense proved they were not the second coming of the 2000 Ravens. Henne outplayed Sanchez and the Dolphins controlled the clock. The media and ESPN have made Vegas a lot of money over the years by over-hyping teams.

And what a baseball game last night as the Phillies won it at the end again. The postseason has not been that entertaining so far, but I am looking forward the the LCS's.

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1076 (16.8% return)

Today's Games

None

2 Wins, Up $20

It's about time my portfolio makes a gain as my free fall can be seen in the chart below. My NFL picks should start to be decent now that I have a better feel for the season. I am back in the black, but still have a ways to go to catch the S&P 500. I bet I will catch up to the S&P over the next month or so.

Portfolio: $924 (0.3% return)
S&P 500: $1071 (16.3% return)



Today's Games

NY Jets @ Miami (+3)

The Jets are getting all the hype and the Dolphins have lost their starting QB for the season. The Jets are not as good as the East Coast biased media have made them out to be. The Dolphins have a ball controlling offense that should do it's job against an over hyped defense. Just by following the media the 1 1/2 opening line and the current line at 3 would make this a no brainer to pick the Jets, and that's the reason why I like the Dolphins plus the points in this game.

Bets

$11 MIA +3

No Action Yesterday

I didn't get around to updating my blog yesterday, but I was not going to pick any games anyway since I'm on a cold streak. I can't seem to get one break, but that's how it goes in sports betting. You just have to stay consistent and not loose your cool and things will eventually turn around. I'm staying away from baseball today as I have missed all my postseason picks so far, but there should be some good games today.

Portfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)

S&P 500: $1071 (16.3% return)

Today's Games

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-6)

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9)

The Browns are not as bad you think and they seem to be playing with more enthusiasm now that they have their better QB starting. The Browns also have one of the better special teams and Buffalo has one of the worst coverage units. I look for the Browns to pull this one out and Trent Edwards to get benched, so I'll take the 6 points.

Cincinnati and Baltimore have the same record but for some reason the Ravens are favored by 9 at home. They are not that much better than the Bengals and the Bengals defense has been really solid this year. Flacco is not at an elite level and I look for him to struggle a little today. The Bengals are playing with a pride this year and even if they lose I do not think it will be by more than 9 points.

Bets

$11 CLE +6

$11 CIN +9

Red Sox Lose – Down $22

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)

Today’s Games

Minnesota (+260) @ New York Yankees (-310)
Boston (-100) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)

In the first game Nick Blackburn is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Blackburn has been really solid lately as he has had pinpoint control, walking only 1 in his last 27 1/3 innings. He will not strikeout many,( 4.29 K/9) gives up more than a hit per inning and is a fly ball pitcher that gives up home runs. But he has been really effective as of late as he has upped his K’s a good amount and has only had one bad start in his last nine. Burnett is an erratic pitcher that has been throwing well lately, although he doesn’t hesitate to give out the free pass. I have a feeling that Blackburn will frustrate the veteran Yankee lineup as he seems to be hitting his spots. I am not that worried that this is his first postseason game because the Twins have been playing like they have been in the postseason for the past month. The Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball and I think they will rally back and make a good series. Blackburn is coming off a start in which he outdueled Zack Greinke, the probable American League CY Young winner, in a must win game. This is a good value play.

In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Jered Weaver. Beckett’s indicators aren’t the best lately as his hits and walks are up a little, but his strikeouts are there. Weaver has been throwing well lately and his indicators are right in line with his season averages. Beckett is a proven big game pitcher and I don’t think he’ll let his team go down 0-2.

Bets

$10 MIN +260
$20 BOS -100

Rough Day, 0-2 and Down $50

My free fall continues, but things will turn around.

Portfolio: $956 (3.8% return)

S&P 500: $1058 (14.9% return)

Today's Games

Boston (-110) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)

In the only game I like today Jon Lester is matched up against John Lackey. Lester is probably the best left handed starter in the playoffs and he has been dominant in the second half on the season. He has had one bad start in the last 2 months and his indicators are really strong. Lackey is a solid veteran pitcher who has struggled lately. His hit rate is up and it has been slightly up all year which means he may be losing a little, but not too much to get worried. I like Boston to take game 1 as Lester is the more stable option.

Bets

$22 BOS

Great Game Last Night

The Tigers/Twins game last night was one of the better baseball games I’ve seen in a while and that got me pumped up for the playoffs.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)

Today’s Games

Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)

In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.

In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.

Bets

$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150

No Action Yesterday

It should be an interesting one game playoff today between the Tigers and Twins. I think the game can go either way even though the Twins are -170 favorites. Porcello has struggled in the Metrodome as most ground ball pitchers do, but Baker has also struggled against the Tigers with the exception of his last start on Thursday. Baker also has been walking too many batters lately and that's his strength. I'd say this game is a coin flip.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)

S&P 500: $1040 (12.9 % return)

Today's Games

None

1-2, Down $23

I’m not off to a good start betting on the NFL, going 1-3 so far. I should stick to my theory of no team is as good or as bad as you think.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today’s Games

None

Royals Lose

Blackburn out dueled Greinke and the Twins are now tied with the Tigers for first in the American League Central. Greinke looked to be on his way to a dominant complete game performance but he fell apart in the 6th. My portfolio takes another hit as the end of the regular baseball season is taking it's toll on me.

I am starting my football analysis this week but that will take at least a few weeks to see if there are any findings. I have an idea to see if I can find statistical indicators like I do in baseball.

Portfolio: $1029 (11.7% return)

S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today's Games

Detroit @ Chicago (-10)

Tampa Bay @ Washington (-7.5)

Buffalo @ Miami (-1)

The Lions are coming off their first win in over a year, but they are still a pretty bad team that struggles to move the ball and stop the ball. Chicago should put them back in their place this week.

Tampa Bay is starting second year quarterback Josh Johnson for the first time and he should really struggle against a solid defense. Washington's offense has been able to move the ball this year but have failed to get in the end zone consistently.

Buffalo is a decent team that should start to find ways to score. They have a solid defense and Miami should be pretty weak offensively today with Chad Henne at quarterback.

Bets

$11 CHI -10

$22 WAS -7.5

$11 BUF -1

No Action Yesterday

It was an interesting day in baseball yesterday as the Tigers and Dodgers couldn't wrap up their divisions. The Dodgers are already in the playoffs and are just looking to get home field advantage, so it's not that big of a deal for them. The Tigers on the other hand might be a little nervous now as their lead is only 1 game with 2 to go, but they have to like the fact that the Twins are facing Zack Greinke who is determined to lock up the CY Young. It will be interesting.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5 % return)

S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (-130) @ Minnesota (+120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Nick Blackburn. Greinke is out to prove he's the best pitcher in the American League and help eliminate the Twins from the post season. Greinke has been dominant as of late and basically the whole season. His walks are a little up recently, but his other indicators are strong. Blackburn is pitching in the biggest game of his career and has been on top of his game lately, going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is a typical Twins pitcher as he pitches to contact, walks very few, and is not a ground ball pitcher although he does get a few more ground balls than fly balls. There is no significant variances in his indicators lately, and the fact that he hasn't been letting up runs tells me he's due to start giving up some. I believe this will be a low scoring affair and Greinke will try to go the distance in his last start of the season.

Bet

$26 KC -130

No Action Yesterday

I most likely will not be betting on any baseball games the rest of the regular season, but you can bet that I will be betting on the playoffs. I'll take a look at the Zack Greinke matchup tomorrow as he is trying to lock up the CY Young. I doubt I’ll have any college football games, but check back on Sunday to see NFL picks.

An interesting stat: Tim Lincecum did not allow a home run at home this season, a span of 124.1 innings pitched. He is just insane.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1030 (11.8% return)

Today’s Games

None

Detroit Beats Tigers 7-2

Carl Pavano got roughed up for the first time this year against the Tigers while Eddie Bonine's luck continued. Bonine should have given up more than 2 runs in 5 innings considering he allowed 9 base runners. But once again this is why it's tough to bet at the end of the season. You almost have to treat it like college football and go with momentum as stats don't matter as much. Through this little cold streak my portfolio has dipped below the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5% return)

S&P 500: $ 1057 (14.8% return)

Today's Games

None

Buchholz Gets Rocked, Red Sox Lose

The Red Sox almost dug out of the hole that Clay Buchholz put them in, losing 8-7 and leaving the tying run on second base. This is why is hard to bet at the end of the season.

Portfolio: $1081 (17.4% return)
S&P 500: $1061 (15.2% return)

Today’s Games

Minnesota (-130) @ Detroit (+110)

In the only game today Carl Pavano is matched up against Eddie Bonine. Pavano has been a solid acquisition for the Twins and has eaten up the Tigers this year going 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 5 starts. He has 22 strikeouts to only 1 walk in those starts. He has been keeping his team in the game in as of late and his indicators are right where they should be for him. Bonine is making just his 4th start this year and has a 2.31 ERA in his last 2 starts. His indicators tell me he’s nothing special and he is getting lucky with a low hit rate. He doesn’t strikeout enough batters and walks too many to sustain a low ERA. I like the Twins to take this must win game with a veteran pitcher who has had success in big games. At -130 I believe this is a good value play.

Bets

$26 MIN -130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1103 (19.8% return)
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)

Today’s Games

Toronto (+200) @ Boston (-220)

In the only game Ricky Romero is matched up against Clay Buchholz. Romero got off to a decent start, but has struggled in the second half of his rookie season. He has above average stuff, but his control just isn’t there. His walks have even been worse lately, and that’s not good when facing a patient Red Sox lineup. He has been lit up in 4 starts against the Sox this year going 0-3 with an 8.83 ERA. Buchholz has been solid since getting called up in mid-July, and had been lights out as of late. He’s pitching like the Red Sox believed he could, going 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA in his last 4. He is a strikeout pitcher who has had good control lately and gets a decent amount of ground balls. He has all the makings of a future ace and he might make a name for himself this postseason. He has dominated the Blue Jays in 3 starts this year going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA. I believe Buchholz will take this start seriously as he wants to stay on top of his game and carry this momentum into the playoffs.

Bets

$22 BOS -220

Titans Lose – Down $11

The Jets hot streak continues, and the Titans are off to a 0-3 start. Neither team is as good or bad as their record indicates. The Titans especially are not 0-3 bad, as they can stop the run and run the ball. Usually teams that are successful doing that will win more than they lose. I am going to try to put together a model for the NFL to determine statistical indicators and margin of victory, but I won’t know for another 2-4 weeks if anything comes out of that.

Heading into the last week of the baseball season there are only 2 playoff races going on, the American League Central and the National League Wild Card. The end of this baseball season has been one of the least entertaining in a while, and the games are really hard to predict as I don’t know who trying and who’s not. For example, I’m not sure if Josh Beckett will come out tonight with the focus and intensity he’s had over the last month since his team has basically wrapped up the Wild Card. Out of the teams that are in a race, I do not like any tonight. I’m not sure how many baseball games I will like this week, but if you’ve been following my advice the last month I have had a decent run gaining over 20%.

Portfolio: $1103 (19.8% return)
S&P 500: $ 1044 (13.4% return)


Today’s Games

None

Wainwright Solid, Cardinals Win

Portfolio: $1114 (21% return)

S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)

Today's Games

Tennessee @ New York Jets (-1)

No baseball today, but I do like an NFL game. Tennessee is off to an 0-2 start, but can just as easily be 2-0. They stop the run with the best of them and will force Sanchez to beat them. He's been good so far, but I think this is the game where he shows that he is a rookie. The Titans will play conservative like normal on offense and not turn the ball over against an aggressive Jets defense. The Jets were looking forward to the game last week against the Patriots and played an emotional game. Usually teams like that have a downfall the week after. I'm not too confident in betting NFL games yet, so I'll just risk $11, or 1% of my portfolio.

Bet

$11 TEN +1

Rough Night - Down $75

Looks like I was way off on the Red Sox game as Lester was the one who lasted 2 1/3 innings and Chamberlain went 6. The Marlins also blew a save after burning me Wednesday night by coming back against Philadelphia. It's tough going 0-fer when betting favorites in baseball, but overall my portfolio is still in decent shape. I'm still not comfortable betting on college football yet.

Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)

S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)

Today's Games

St. Louis (+130) @ Colorado (-140)

In the only game today Adam Wainwright is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez in a possible division series match up. Wainwright is sharp right now and is looking to lock up some more votes for the CY Young and clinch the division for his team. I do not see a weakness in his game. Jimenez is the Rockies ace and is looking to help his team nail down the wild card, but has been inconsistent lately as his walk rate has spiked. I like the Cardinals in a good value play here.

Bet

$20 STL +130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1163 (26.3% return)
S&P 500: $1051 (14.1% return)

Today’s Games

Boston (-130) @ New York Yankees (+110)
New York Mets (+160) @ Florida (-180)

In the first game Jon Lester is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Lester has turned into the best left handed starter in the American League and has really strong indicators. He has been pitching well lately and he has had success against the Yankees this year, so I expect he should put up another solid performance as he’s gearing up for the postseason. Chamberlain has been on an innings/pitch count limit this month and has really struggled during that span. He is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in his last 4 starts and that’s mainly due to lack of command. I like the Red Sox in this one as the Yankees will be dipping into the bullpen early while Lester should give the Sox at least 6 solid innings.

In the second game Tim Redding is matched up against Ricky Nolasco. Redding is a below average pitcher who will not strikeout many, walks a little too many, and gives up the long ball too much. Although he has a 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, I do not expect him to keep it up as his indicators are weak and he is benefitting from a low hit rate. Florida has also has their way with him this year as he has gone 1-2 with an 8.04 ERA in 3 starts. Nolasco is an inconsistent pitcher who has really good stuff. Although he has a 5.55 ERA over his last 4 starts, his indicators are top notch. Over that span his K/9 rate is 9.25 while his BB/9 rate is 1.48. Those are actually not far off from his season averages and with those indicators he should be in the CY Young talks, but instead he is 12-9 with a 5.34 ERA. I’ll take the guy with the good stuff against a weak lineup.

Bets

$39 BOS -130
$36 FLA -180

Phillies Lose, Red Sox Win - Down $14

Hamels and Beckett didn't go out and dominate, but they pitched well enough to win. Brad Lidge blew another save and was the difference in my portfolio gaining $40 or losing $14.

If anyone watched the Phillies game on ESPN I feel sorry for your ears since you had to listen to such bad commentating. I cannot believe how much they were talking about Cole Hamels not throwing his curveball because they thought his arm was hurt. I believe the commentator was Rick Sutcliffe, but I could be wrong. He also went as far as to say that the Phillies are hiding an injury. This is complete fabrication as Hamels generally does not throw his curveball unless he has the feel for it, which he rarely does. He throws his curve less than 10% of the time and last year during his postseason run he very rarely threw a curve. He’s a fastball and change up pitcher. Even Karl Ravech after the game commented that Hamels was only throwing fastballs. ESPN has gotten so far away from just covering sports that I cannot stand them and very rarely watch anything on that network. Over the years I have found that no one employed by ESPN really knows that much about any sport. I have watched Hamels pitch less than 10 times and somehow I know more about how he pitches than the so called ESPN analyst, what a joke. I will use this to my advantage as a lot of people will believe that and bet against Hamels which will move the line in my favor. One of the factors I use in betting NFL games is the go against whoever ESPN decides to hype up.

Portfolio: $1163 (26.3% return)
S&P 500: $1061 (15.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Dodgers and Royals Win Easily

Both games went just as I predicted and my portfolio gained $40.

Portfolio: $1177 (27.8% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)

Today’s Games

Philadelphia (-170) @ Florida (+150)
Boston (-200) @ Kansas City (+170)

In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Rick VandenHurk. After struggling for most of the year by his standards, Cole Hamels has found his groove as of late. During his struggles he was the victim of bad luck as his hit rate was high for no reason, but that has turned around recently. His indicators are really strong over his last 4 starts in which he has gone 3-1 with an 1.82 ERA and all signs point to him keeping it up. VandenHurk has also pitched well lately and has decent stuff, but gives out the free pass a little too frequently. He is also a fly ball pitcher which does not bode well when facing the Phillies. He has kept the ball in the park in his last 3 starts, but I do not see him keeping that up. I like the Phillies with their ace in postseason form to take this one.

In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Luke Hochevar. Beckett has had an up and down season, but he’s currently on the up part and looks to be gearing up for the playoffs. His indicators are strong and his homerun woes are behind him so I look for him to continue to deal. Hochevar is inconsistent but he’s coming off a complete game, 3 hit shutout. He has the potential to be a solid number 3 and possibly number 2 starter, but you never know what you’re going to get from him start to start. His indicators tell me that his ERA should be lower than 5.79. He has had 4 really good starts this year but has laid an egg in the following start 3 times. I look for Beckett to dominate a weak lineup and Hochevar to lay another egg after a solid performance.

Bets

$34 PHI -170
$40 BOS -200

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1137 (23.5% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)

Today’s Games

Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Washington (+170)
Boston (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)

In the first game Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Livan Hernandez. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets a few more ground balls than fly balls. He is not a strikeout pitcher but hitters struggle to find the sweet spot against him. Overall he’s a solid number 2 or 3 starter who has been pitching well lately. He’s 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and his indicators are really strong. The soft tossing veteran Hernandez mainly relies on deception as he really does not have one strong indicator. This is most likely the reason why he is 8-11 with a 5.22 ERA this year. He has been decent his last 2 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.70, and that is exactly the reason why I like the Dodgers. Kuroda is on top of his game while Hernandez is due for a let down against the best team in the National League.

In the second game Paul Byrd is matched up against Zack Greinke. The veteran Byrd is similar to Livan Hernandez in the fact that he relies on the deception. The difference between the two is Byrd rarely gives up the walk, and that is why he has been better the last few years. Byrd has not been impressive in his brief time with the Red Sox as he is handing out about twice as much free passes compared to the past 6 years and batters and hitting him hard. Greinke is fine after leaving early in his last start due to being hit with a line drive in the elbow. He has been on top of his game lately and looks to add to his case for the American League CY Young award. Soft tossers like Byrd generally struggle against inexperienced hitters so the Royals should be able to put up a few runs early. Greinke should continue to roll and an impressive performance against a good hitting Red Sox team will definitely secure more votes.

Bets

$40 LAD -200
$30 KC -150

Cardinals Lose In 11 - Down $32

Zambrano and Wainwright were both sharp, but an error in the 6th most likely cost the Cardinals the game. Wainwright struck out 10 in 7 innings.

Portfolio: $1137 (23.5% return)
S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Today's Games

None

Boston and Colorado Take Care of Business

My portfolio gained $40 as Jon Lester and Jason Hammel pitched solid and both teams pulled away at the end of the game to win easily. I'm staying away from the NFL this week as it is still way too unpredictable. I have also decided to list my winning percentage for the first time today. If you have been following my advice and using my conservative money management approach then you should be doing pretty well.

Portfolio: $1169 (27% return)

S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Overall Record: 48-33 (59%)

Favorites: 34-18 (65%)

Underdogs: 15-14 (52%)

Today’s Games

Chicago Cubs (+140) @ St. Louis (-160)

Carlos Zambrano is matched up against Adam Wainwright. Zambrano is an erratic pitcher who has not been throwing well lately. While his strikeouts are up, so are his walks and hits. He has also not fared well against the Cardinals this year. Wainwright is making a bid for the National League CY Young award and has been on top of his game in his last 2 starts. His indicators tell me that he will keep it up. He is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA against the Cubs in 4 starts this year and has an ERA of 1.89 at home. This is ESPN’s Sunday night game of the week and Wainwright will have the chance to show everyone how good he has been as the Cardinals should complete the sweep.

Bet

$32 STL -160

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1129 (22.6% return)

S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Today's Games

Boston (-220) @ Baltimore (+190)

Colorado (+100) @ Arizona (-110)

In the first game today Jon Lester is matched up against David Hernandez. Lester is becoming one of the better left handed pitchers in the game and one of the better pitchers in the American League. His K rate of 10.07 and BB rate of 2.86 are pretty close to Tim Lincecum’s with the main difference being he gives up more hits. Lester has been on top of his game lately going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last 3 starts. His hit rate is a little low over that span so that should start to tick up, but he will still be dominant. He has also carved up the Orioles this year, going 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in 3 starts. Hernandez has struggled in his first stint in the big leagues, going 4-8 with a 5.40 ERA. There’s really not much to like so far as he does not miss many bats, issues too many free passes, and is an extreme fly ball pitcher which has led to him giving up 23 homeruns in 85 innings. He has also been lit up by the Red Sox this year in 3 starts, going 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA. He really can’t be pitching any worse right now as he has only thrown 10 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts while carrying an ERA of 13.50. The Red Sox are playing solid baseball right now while the Orioles can’t say the same. One of the better pitchers is facing one of the worst pitchers lately. I’m not sure why the Red Sox are not favored by more, but I’ll bet the max (up to 5%) on them at -220.

In the second game today Jason Hammel is matched up against Max Scherzer. Hammel is turning into a serviceable starter as he has improved his control and is inducing more ground balls. His indicators tell me he has been throwing well lately, but has been a victim of bad luck. His K, BB, and hit rates are all really solid it’s just that he’s been giving a couple more runs than he should be. If he continues to pitch like he has things will turn around. It’s not like he has been bad over his last 4 starts with a 4.07 ERA, it’s just that it should be lower. He has also fared a lot better on the road as his ERA is 2.75 points lower. The hard throwing Scherzer has been pitching pretty well as of late, going 1-1 with a 2.61 in his last 3, but I do not think he will keep it up. His K rate is extremely low compared to his season average and that tells me his stuff might not be there this late into the season. Neither the Rockies nor the Diamondbacks are playing well lately, but I like the Rockies at +100 as they have fared well against Scherzer this year.

Bet

$44 BOS -220

$20 COL +100

Royals Cruise – Up $40

Greinke was dominant fanning 8 in 5 innings before he had to leave the game after getting hit by a line drive in the elbow. Elbow injuries are never good, but this one is different as his tendons and ligaments should be fine.

Portfolio: $1129 (22.6% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)


Today’s Games

None

Cardinals Lose, Down $26

Joel Pineiro struggled in the first inning and the Cardinals failed to give him run support. Maybe the Marlins are not out of the race. If you haven’t noticed, the S&P 500 had a solid day and seems to have gained almost everyday for the past 2 weeks.

Portfolio: $1089 (18.2% return)

S&P 500: $1069 (16.1% return)

Today’s Games

Kansas City(-100) @ Detroit (-120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Edwin Jackson. Greinke is on top of his game right now and is showing no signs of slowing down. He is 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA in 4 starts against the Tigers this year. Jackson got off to a great start but has faded lately. His walk rate and hit rate are ticking up to his career averages and that’s the main reason for his recent struggles. I like the Royals, who are playing good baseball and have the best pitcher in the league on the mound, to beat the Tigers, who might start to feel the Twins creeping up on them. I’m not sure why the Tigers are favored in this game.

Bet

$40 KC -100

Royals Win, Angels Lose – Down $7

Robinson Tejeda had electric stuff and pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball and Dice-K surprisingly outdueled Lackey.

Portfolio: $1115 (21.1% return)
S&P 500: $1053 (14.3% return)

Today’s Games

Florida (+110) @ St. Louis (-130)

In the only game today Josh Johnson is matched up against Joel Pineiro. Johnson has had a solid season, but is showing signs of fatigue as his walks are way up lately. Other than that all his other indicators are normal. He is also being monitored closely as he is coming off Tommy John surgery. I don’t expect him to throw more than 95 pitches. Pineiro is having a career year due to pinpoint control, 1.04 BB/9, and an increased ground ball rate. He has turned himself into a heavy ground ball pitcher after being about a 55/45 ground ball to fly ball guy earlier in his career. He won’t miss many bats, but hitter’s don’t square him up that often. Florida had a bad weekend and may have fallen out of the playoff race while the Cardinals are playing for home field advantage. I like the Cardinals and Pineiro.

Bet

$26 STL -130

2-0, Up $30

Not a bad night. That Patriots/Bills game last night was crazy. Both football games last night once again showed how unpredictable the first week of the season is, and why I stayed away from it.

Portfolio: $1122 (21.8% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)

By looking at the chart below you can see that my returns compared to the S&P 500 are more volatile, but that I have been outpacing it most of the time. This is just the beginning, spread the word to people that you think would find this quick daily read interesting. Once baseball season ends there will be less posts, and I'm not sure how much NBA I will get into. But you can expect football picks and most likely some college basketball.



Today’s Games

Kansas City (+150) @ Detroit (-170)
Los Angeles Angels (-110) @ Boston (-110)

In the first game today Robinson Tejeda is matched up against Jarrod Washburn. Tejeda has not allowed a run since becoming a starter, a span of 13 innings over 2 starts. His stuff has been electric and he has really cut down on his walks. The Tigers couldn’t touch him in his last start. Washburn has underachieved for the Tigers after the trade, but has fared well against the Royals this year. He has been getting tagged as of late and his indicators point to him keeping it up. I like the Royals in a good value play here as this game should be a pick’em.

In the second game today John Lackey is matched up against Diasuke Matsuzaka. The Angels ace has been on top of his game lately and should keep it up in what will most likely be a Division Series matchup. Lackey is a big game pitcher who will be up for this game. Matsuzaka has not pitched in the majors since June. He throws way too many pitches and walks too many. He will not last past the 6th against a good Angels team. I’m not sure why the line is even, but I’ll take the Angels at this value.

Bet

$10 KC +150
$22 LAA -110

No Action Yesterday

It’s nice to see the NFL season starting again. I might bet a couple games next week now that I have a little feel for the teams. The one thing to remember about the NFL is that teams are not as good or bad as you think. I generally like to bet on teams that looked horrible the week before or against media over-hyped teams. A good example of this theory was the Jets/Texans game yesterday. The Jets were starting a rookie on the road while the Texans were supposed to have a high powered offense, so the -5 line seemed a little low. I bet Vegas made a killing on that game.

Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today’s Games

Cleveland (+140) @ Minnesota (-160)
Colorado (+170) @ San Francisco (-180)

In the first game Jeremy Sowers is matched up against Carl Pavano. Sowers is a soft tossing left hander who has control issues. He really is not a major league pitcher, and I have yet to figure out why the Indians continue to give him opportunities. His K’s are way below the major league average at 3.69 and his walks are above the major league average at 3.61. He is also a fly ball pitcher. Not much to like here. Pavano is having an average season after being out most of the last 3 years due to injury. His indicators are pretty good and he has been throwing well over the last few months. He does occasionally get lit up, and that has really hurt his overall numbers. I doubt the Indians will light him up, and the Twins should be able to cross the plate a few times against Sowers.

In the second game Jason Hammel is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Hammel is turning into a solid middle of the rotation starter, and has been throwing well as of late. But I do not think he will out duel the rested Lincecum, who had his last start skipped due to a stiff lower back. Lincecum should have a little extra on his pitches and I really would not be surprised to see him go the distance in this must win game. The kid is so competitive that once he’s out there on the mound he will be fine.

Bet

$16 MIN -160
$36 SF -180

Baltimore Wins, Up $26

Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)

S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today's Games

None

I don't see any baseball games I like and week 1 of the NFL is way too unpredictable.

Kansas City Wins In 12

It looks like I got a little lucky in winning $30, but Greinke should have easily picked up the win considering how dominant he was. He only allowed 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 6 and walking none. Masterson on the other hand was getting out of trouble all night, allowing 8 base runners in 6 innings. He had some key double plays and that is why it is an advantage to be a ground ball pitcher. If he could just learn how to throw more strikes he will be pretty good. The same goes for Fausto Carmona.

Portfolio: $1066 (15.7% return)

S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today’s Games

Baltimore (+260) @ New York Yankees (-320)

In the only game today the Orioles top prospect Brian Matusz is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Matusz has a 5.26 ERA in his brief time in the majors, but has shown promise as of late. Over his last 3 starts his indicators are really strong. He’s strikes out a decent amount while being stingy on the free pass. After allowing a ton of hits in his first few starts, it looks like that is normalized now. He is also left handed and facing the Yankees for the first time. Burnett has not pitched up to expectations and has struggled recently, except for his last start. His K’s are there, but he is walking way too many and his ground ball rate is the lowest of his career and that has lead to giving up the long ball. He has the stuff to go out and dominate on any given start, but I actually think Matusz will hold his own facing the Yankees for the first time. The forecast calls for rain so anything can happen pitching wise, but at +260 I think this is a great value play.

Bet

$10 Bal +260

No Action Yesterday, S&P 500 Continues Steady Gain

The NFL season kicked off last night with the Steelers winning 13-10 and the Titans covering. Tennessee has too good of a defense to be getting 7 points. I will be betting on football games, both college and NFL, but both are really tough to bet on early in the season. I will be betting more on NFL. I am working on a statistical probability system for the NFL, and if it ends up working I won’t be using it until midway through the season. I will still be betting on games before that, just not with my system. I am attempting to find a correlation between certain team stats, winning percentage, and margin of victory.

Over the past few years I have picked NFL games over a 50% clip. Two years ago I was around 65% for the season and hit 16 games in a row over a 4 week span. The probability of hitting 16 games in a row is 1 in 65536. Also, a tip for you bettors, stay away from parlays.

Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)
S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)

Today’s Games

Kansas City (-140) @ Cleveland (+120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Justin Masterson. Grienke is the leading American League CY Young candidate and has been on top of his game lately. He has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts, a span of 17 innings. His indicators tell me it’s legit. Masterson has struggled with his control since being traded to the Indians. He is a heavy ground ball pitcher to strikes out his fair share, so he has the potential to be pretty good. He just has to improve his control. I like the Royals as Greinke carved up the Indians in his last start, striking out 15, and they are playing well as they are coming off a 3 game sweep of the division leading Tigers.

Bet

$42 KC -140

Two Wins, $20

Wainwright dominated, Nolasco pitched solid and their offenses scored enough for both to pick up wins.

Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)

S&P 500: $1033 (12.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Very light schedule today.

Back To Normal Life

After being away from everything for 5 days I am now back on a normal schedule.

Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today’s Games

St. Louis (-200) @ Milwaukee (+170)
Florida (-140) @ New York Mets (+120)

In the first game Adam Wainwright is matched up against Jeff Suppan. Wainwright is in the talks for the NL CY Young, but was roughed up by Pittsburgh is his last start although he did pick up the win. This doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about and he should bounce back against the Brewers, a team who he has dominated this year. Suppan is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he shouldn’t be able to keep that up. His K’s are way down and his BB’s are uncharacteristically high and that explains his 1.94 WHIP over that span. He might be pitching with a dead arm or slightly hurt, and that does not bode well against the division leading Cardinals.

In the second game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Pat Misch. Nolasco has been pretty solid in the second half of the season and his K and BB rates are ace caliber. He has suffered from a low strand rate lately so his ERA of 4.38 over his last 4 starts should probably be lower. Misch is making only his third start this year after appearing in 19 games out of the pen. He won’t miss a lot of bats, walk too many, or get a lot of ground balls, but he is left handed. Nolasco should have a decent outing against a light hitting Mets team as the Marlins need to pick it up if they want to play into October.

Bets

$20 STL -200
$14 FLA -140

I’ll ease into action after being away.

Still on Vacation

This is the first time I've been by a computer the last few days and I probably wont be by one the next 2 days, so I doubt I'll have any games before Wednesday. That was a great pitching duel between Pedro and Lincecum on Thursday, too bas for me Pedro came out on top.

Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1016 (10.3% return)

Today's Games

None