Great Game Last Night

The Tigers/Twins game last night was one of the better baseball games I’ve seen in a while and that got me pumped up for the playoffs.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)

Today’s Games

Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)

In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.

In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.

Bets

$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150