Portfolio: $833 (-9.6% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today's Games
Texas (-150) @ Boston (+140)
In the only game today newly acquired Cliff Lee is matched up against the struggling John Lackey. By staying in the American League, Cliff Lee has a chance for his second CY Young award. His indicators are career bests so it looks like he will continue his dominance and lead the Rangers to the postseason. He is exactly what the heavy hitting Rangers needed. John Lackey is looking like a bad acquisition for the Red Sox, and that has been rare the last few years. I don't know if he's hurt, feeling too much pressure, or just losing his stuff. Maybe it's a combination, but he is having his worst season as a pro. His indicators are horrible. His strikeouts per nine are down 1.5 from his career average, his walks per nine are up 1, and his hits per nine are up 1.5. That puts his indicators this year at fringe major league starter. Add that to the fact that Boston is missing serious offensive production and the Rangers at -150 look like a great pick. Max bet (5%) on Texas with a CY Young contender facing a makeshift lineup with a struggling starter.
Bets
$30 TEX -150
Showing posts with label cliff lee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cliff lee. Show all posts
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
1-2, Down $12 from Sunday
And the losing continues.
Portfolio: $758 (-17.7% return)
S&P 500: $1039 (12.8% return)
Today’s Games
Seattle (+150) @ NY Yankees (-160)
In my only game Cliff Lee is matched up against Phil Hughes. Lee has been spectacular this year with a 2.39 ERA and 4 complete games, but his record is only 6-3. This is just another example of how wins and losses are a fluke stat. Lee’s strikeout rate is the second highest of his career and almost a full batter per nine higher than the last 2 years, which were his best. All of his indicators are actually a little better than his 2008 CY Young year. He has only walked 4 batters in 86 2/3 innings. He is coming off back to back complete games and all signs are pointing in the right direction for him to continue. Hughes has good stuff and solid indicators. He got off to a great start and then stumbled a little. He is coming off a skipped start due to workload concerns, and I’m not sure how he’ll react. I know the Mariners offense is horrible, but I’m not sure what the Yankees will get out of Hughes in this start. I’ll take a leading CY Young candidate at +150 odds any day.
Bets
$10 SEA +150
Portfolio: $758 (-17.7% return)
S&P 500: $1039 (12.8% return)
Today’s Games
Seattle (+150) @ NY Yankees (-160)
In my only game Cliff Lee is matched up against Phil Hughes. Lee has been spectacular this year with a 2.39 ERA and 4 complete games, but his record is only 6-3. This is just another example of how wins and losses are a fluke stat. Lee’s strikeout rate is the second highest of his career and almost a full batter per nine higher than the last 2 years, which were his best. All of his indicators are actually a little better than his 2008 CY Young year. He has only walked 4 batters in 86 2/3 innings. He is coming off back to back complete games and all signs are pointing in the right direction for him to continue. Hughes has good stuff and solid indicators. He got off to a great start and then stumbled a little. He is coming off a skipped start due to workload concerns, and I’m not sure how he’ll react. I know the Mariners offense is horrible, but I’m not sure what the Yankees will get out of Hughes in this start. I’ll take a leading CY Young candidate at +150 odds any day.
Bets
$10 SEA +150
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Two Games Friday
Portfolio: $860 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)
Today's Games (5/28)
St. Louis (-140) @ Chicago Cubs (+120)
Seattle (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels (+100)
In the first game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wells. Carpenter is a top 5 starter in the National League and his indicators look pretty strong this year as his strikeout rate is at a career high. He has given up 9 long balls this year after only giving up 7 all of last year, but I actually think that number last year was a fluke. He should end up with around 20 for the season, so I don't look too much into that number. Wells is a strike thrower who is turning into a solid young starter, but he won't fan a ton of hitters. Wells is coming off what may be his best start of the season while Carpenter is coming off a poor start by his standards. I feel the line should favor the Cardinals more with Carpenter pitching.
In the second game Cliff Lee is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Lee is on top of his game again this year as his control is pinpoint. He has walked only 1 batter in 36 2/3 innings this year. His super low walk rate is the key to him being one of the top pitchers in the league. He is also striking out about a batter an inning more this year. He was roughed up pretty good in his last start, but that happens from time to time with him because he doesn't not blow batters away and keeps the ball in the zone. He usually bounces back OK from those types of outings though. Kazmir has struggled all year and there are not too many signs of him turning it around. He may be hiding an injury as his strikeout rate is by far the lowest in his career and he is walking more batters than any time in the last 4 years. I know the Mariners have one of the worst offenses in the game, but they have been waking up lately and I don't think they'll need to score too many runs with Lee on the mound. I believe the line is so low for this much of a pitching mismatch because of how poorly the Mariners have been playing.
Bets
$14 STL -140
$12 SEA -120
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)
Today's Games (5/28)
St. Louis (-140) @ Chicago Cubs (+120)
Seattle (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels (+100)
In the first game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wells. Carpenter is a top 5 starter in the National League and his indicators look pretty strong this year as his strikeout rate is at a career high. He has given up 9 long balls this year after only giving up 7 all of last year, but I actually think that number last year was a fluke. He should end up with around 20 for the season, so I don't look too much into that number. Wells is a strike thrower who is turning into a solid young starter, but he won't fan a ton of hitters. Wells is coming off what may be his best start of the season while Carpenter is coming off a poor start by his standards. I feel the line should favor the Cardinals more with Carpenter pitching.
In the second game Cliff Lee is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Lee is on top of his game again this year as his control is pinpoint. He has walked only 1 batter in 36 2/3 innings this year. His super low walk rate is the key to him being one of the top pitchers in the league. He is also striking out about a batter an inning more this year. He was roughed up pretty good in his last start, but that happens from time to time with him because he doesn't not blow batters away and keeps the ball in the zone. He usually bounces back OK from those types of outings though. Kazmir has struggled all year and there are not too many signs of him turning it around. He may be hiding an injury as his strikeout rate is by far the lowest in his career and he is walking more batters than any time in the last 4 years. I know the Mariners have one of the worst offenses in the game, but they have been waking up lately and I don't think they'll need to score too many runs with Lee on the mound. I believe the line is so low for this much of a pitching mismatch because of how poorly the Mariners have been playing.
Bets
$14 STL -140
$12 SEA -120
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
No Action Yesterday
I was glad to see the NBA season start. I will very rarely bet on NBA games, but I will follow it. This season is going to be one of the better one's in recent history. The NBA is back to having a good product.
Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)
Today's Games
Philadelphia (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)
In Game 1 of the World Series Cliff Lee is matched up against CC Sabathia in what should be a great matchup between two former Indians and CY Young winners. Cliff Lee has been dominant this postseason but has been helped out by a low hit rate. His other indicators are solid. Sabathia has also been dominant and his indicators look solid, but I am still sticking by my theory that he will choke. I also feel like the Yankees are just happy to get to the World Series and gave everything they got to get here. I think the Phillies expected to get here. I would not be surprised to see the Phillies take the Series in 5. I think the Phillies are a great bet tonight at +150.
Bets
$30 PHI +150
Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)
Today's Games
Philadelphia (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)
In Game 1 of the World Series Cliff Lee is matched up against CC Sabathia in what should be a great matchup between two former Indians and CY Young winners. Cliff Lee has been dominant this postseason but has been helped out by a low hit rate. His other indicators are solid. Sabathia has also been dominant and his indicators look solid, but I am still sticking by my theory that he will choke. I also feel like the Yankees are just happy to get to the World Series and gave everything they got to get here. I think the Phillies expected to get here. I would not be surprised to see the Phillies take the Series in 5. I think the Phillies are a great bet tonight at +150.
Bets
$30 PHI +150
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Great Game Last Night
The Tigers/Twins game last night was one of the better baseball games I’ve seen in a while and that got me pumped up for the playoffs.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)
Today’s Games
Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)
In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.
In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.
Bets
$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)
Today’s Games
Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)
In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.
In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.
Bets
$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Solid 3-0, Up $40
I kinda got lucky with the Yankees and Cardinals pulling it out, but all of my pitching predictions were correct. Lincecum was dominant and I was hoping he'd go out there for the 9th even after throwing 127 pitches. I think pitch count is way overrated, and it's nice to see the Giants as they don't put much stock into it.
Portfolio: $1077 (16.9% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)
Today's Game
Atlanta (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
In the only game I like today Derek Lowe is matched up against Cliff Lee. You can see my analysis of Lowe from 8/23. Not much has changed and I believe his best days are behind him. Lee on the other hand is in CY Young form and has almost been unhittable since joining the Phillies. His indicators as of late are right on last years and he has upped his K rate. While Lee can't keep up his sub 1.00 ERA, he should still pitch solid enough to get the win as the Phiilies should be able to score off Lowe early and often.
Bet
$38 PHI -190
Portfolio: $1077 (16.9% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)
Today's Game
Atlanta (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
In the only game I like today Derek Lowe is matched up against Cliff Lee. You can see my analysis of Lowe from 8/23. Not much has changed and I believe his best days are behind him. Lee on the other hand is in CY Young form and has almost been unhittable since joining the Phillies. His indicators as of late are right on last years and he has upped his K rate. While Lee can't keep up his sub 1.00 ERA, he should still pitch solid enough to get the win as the Phiilies should be able to score off Lowe early and often.
Bet
$38 PHI -190
Sunday, July 26, 2009
No Action Last Night
Portfolio: $959 (4.1% return)
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)
Today's Game
Cleveland (-140) @ Seattle (+130)
Cliff Lee is matched up against Jason Vargas in this game where the Indians are going for the sweep. The reigning CY Young winner Lee is having a solid season with a 3.17 ERA. His strikeouts, walks, and ground balls are about the same as last years while his hit rate is elevated a little. He is coming off back to back complete game victories where he only allowed 1 run each time. Vargas is an average pitcher in the sense that his strikeout, walk, hit, and ground ball ratios are all about the major league average. The Indians bats have been hot lately and I look for them to complete the sweep with their ace on the mound.
Bet
$28 CLE -140
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)
Today's Game
Cleveland (-140) @ Seattle (+130)
Cliff Lee is matched up against Jason Vargas in this game where the Indians are going for the sweep. The reigning CY Young winner Lee is having a solid season with a 3.17 ERA. His strikeouts, walks, and ground balls are about the same as last years while his hit rate is elevated a little. He is coming off back to back complete game victories where he only allowed 1 run each time. Vargas is an average pitcher in the sense that his strikeout, walk, hit, and ground ball ratios are all about the major league average. The Indians bats have been hot lately and I look for them to complete the sweep with their ace on the mound.
Bet
$28 CLE -140
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