I kinda got lucky with the Yankees and Cardinals pulling it out, but all of my pitching predictions were correct. Lincecum was dominant and I was hoping he'd go out there for the 9th even after throwing 127 pitches. I think pitch count is way overrated, and it's nice to see the Giants as they don't put much stock into it.
Portfolio: $1077 (16.9% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)
Today's Game
Atlanta (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
In the only game I like today Derek Lowe is matched up against Cliff Lee. You can see my analysis of Lowe from 8/23. Not much has changed and I believe his best days are behind him. Lee on the other hand is in CY Young form and has almost been unhittable since joining the Phillies. His indicators as of late are right on last years and he has upped his K rate. While Lee can't keep up his sub 1.00 ERA, he should still pitch solid enough to get the win as the Phiilies should be able to score off Lowe early and often.
Bet
$38 PHI -190
Showing posts with label atlanta braves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label atlanta braves. Show all posts
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
On A Cold Streak, Red Sox Lose Again
Beckett pitched well enough to win, but the Red Sox offense continued to slump. It’s been a rough few days, but my gains are still positive and I’m beating the S&P 500 by 2.2%.
Portfolio: $975 (5.9% return)
S&P 500: $955 (3.7% return)
Today’s Game
San Francisco (-110) @ Atlanta (-120)
Tim Lincecum is going up against Jair Jurrjens in a matchup of two good, young pitchers. If you have read previous posts or look at past analysis, I am pretty high on Lincecum. I bet on him last game at -150 and lost, and I said that we would probably never see a better line for him the rest of the season. Well, the Giants have been slumping lately, especially their offense while losing 5 of 6. This has set up a perfect situation to bet on. Lincecum should put up a pretty solid start against an average Braves offense in a pitchers ballpark, so the Giants won’t need much runs to win. Jurrjens has been pitching pretty well lately, but it doesn’t look like he can keep up it up. His 2.77 ERA is low considering that his strikeouts are down, walks are up, and ground balls are down. He is benefitting by a low hit rate and high runners stranded rate, both of which are mainly luck. Look for the Giants offense to wake up and score a handful of runs in an easy win.
Bets
$44 SF -110
Portfolio: $975 (5.9% return)
S&P 500: $955 (3.7% return)
Today’s Game
San Francisco (-110) @ Atlanta (-120)
Tim Lincecum is going up against Jair Jurrjens in a matchup of two good, young pitchers. If you have read previous posts or look at past analysis, I am pretty high on Lincecum. I bet on him last game at -150 and lost, and I said that we would probably never see a better line for him the rest of the season. Well, the Giants have been slumping lately, especially their offense while losing 5 of 6. This has set up a perfect situation to bet on. Lincecum should put up a pretty solid start against an average Braves offense in a pitchers ballpark, so the Giants won’t need much runs to win. Jurrjens has been pitching pretty well lately, but it doesn’t look like he can keep up it up. His 2.77 ERA is low considering that his strikeouts are down, walks are up, and ground balls are down. He is benefitting by a low hit rate and high runners stranded rate, both of which are mainly luck. Look for the Giants offense to wake up and score a handful of runs in an easy win.
Bets
$44 SF -110
Monday, July 20, 2009
Giants Finally Win Low Scoring Affair
Matt Cain and Zach Duke both pitched well, but Cain was a little better and the Giants offense finally decided to score a little. I won $20.
Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)
The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.
The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.
Bets
$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110
Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)
The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.
The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.
Bets
$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Best Bet Was No Bet
Good thing I backed off the 2 games that popped out yesterday. The Diamondbacks look to be heating up and the Royals couldn't hit the rookie left hander even though Greinke pitched solid.
Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $880 (-4.5% return)
Today's Game
Atlanta (+110) @ Colorado (-130)
Today's game has undefeated rookie Tommy Hanson going up against Aaron Cook. Hanson is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA to start off his career, but I believe he is in for his first loss tonight. He has not been striking out batters anywhere near the rate he did in the minors, and his hit rate is pretty low and should begin to tick up. He seems to have found his control in his last 2 starts, after walking 15 in his first 23 innings, but the Rockies are a patient team and will make him work. Aaron Cook has been pitching really good as of late, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 starts. His strikeout rate, walk rate, hit rate, and groundball rate are all normal. Cook struggled early in the season, walking more batters than normal and giving up an unusual amount of home runs, but he has corrected those and has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball lately. Look for Cook pitch solid and Hanson to last no more than 6 innings.
Bet
$26 COL -130
Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $880 (-4.5% return)
Today's Game
Atlanta (+110) @ Colorado (-130)
Today's game has undefeated rookie Tommy Hanson going up against Aaron Cook. Hanson is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA to start off his career, but I believe he is in for his first loss tonight. He has not been striking out batters anywhere near the rate he did in the minors, and his hit rate is pretty low and should begin to tick up. He seems to have found his control in his last 2 starts, after walking 15 in his first 23 innings, but the Rockies are a patient team and will make him work. Aaron Cook has been pitching really good as of late, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 starts. His strikeout rate, walk rate, hit rate, and groundball rate are all normal. Cook struggled early in the season, walking more batters than normal and giving up an unusual amount of home runs, but he has corrected those and has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball lately. Look for Cook pitch solid and Hanson to last no more than 6 innings.
Bet
$26 COL -130
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