Two Games on Sunday

Portfolio: $803 (-12.8% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)

Today's Games

Tampa Bay (-160) @ Cleveland (+140)
San Francisco (-150) @ Arizona (+130)

In the first game Wade Davis is matched up against Justin Masterson. Davis has been rock solid as of late going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 2 starts. He has showed great control, but is getting a little lucky on his hit rate and he is also not striking out too many. I don't think he'll continue to pitch this good. Masterson has had a bad year, but he has had flashes of turning the corner. If he keeps the ball in the strike zone he is really hard to hit. The Indians are playing really well right now and the team is just out there having fun. I can not say the same about the Rays regarding the fun part. I think the overall team confidence will help Masterson today and I like the Indians as the dog.

In the second game Giants ace Tim Lincecum is matched up against rookie Barry Enright. Lincecum really struggled in his last start, but I do not see that continuing. His indicators are all down a little this year, but he is still one of the top pitchers. He'll eventually work through it. The Diamondbacks could not have asked for more from Enright, who they called up from Double A last month, as he has gone 2-2 with a 2.66 ERA. His indicators were really solid in Double A and he has carried those over to the majors, but with him being 24 years old straight out of Double A I would expect him to hit a rough patch soon. And what better time than against a hot Giants team with a two time CY Young winner on the mound? I like the Giants in a max bet.

Bets

$10 CLE +140
$30 SF -150

Two Games Wednesday

Portfolio: $773 (-16.1% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)

Today's Games

San Francisco (-130) @ Milwaukee (+120)
Florida (-120) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+110)

In the first game back to back NL CY Young winner Tim Lincecum is matched up against erratic Chris Narveson. Lincecum has struggled more than usual this year but his ERA is still 3.28 and he still has solid indicators. His control is was is hurting him as he's walking 1 more batter per nine than last year. He was not too impressive in his last outing but I think he'll start to turn it around soon. Narveson looks like he is just an average pitcher at best and is prone to giving up big innings. With this big of a pitching mismatch and the Giants having the better team I am scratching my head why the line is this low. Max bet on Giants -130.

In the second game CY Young front runner runner Josh Johnson is matched up against the the solid Hiroki Kuroda. Johnson is having a season of a lifetime since he has not given up more than 2 earned runs since May 8th. That is 10 starts! His indicators are rock solid and the best of his career and I expect him to throw well again tonight. Kuroda is a decent pitcher who won't overpower anyone so he is prone to letting up lots of runs from time to time. He was roughed up in his last 2 starts and his control hasn't been there this year. I don't expect him to get rocked again tonight, I just don't expect him to out duel Johnson. Max bet on Florida.

Bets

$39 SF -130
$36 FLA -120

Can't Get Much Worse

I am just stuck in a bad streak, but it won't last.

Portfolio: $770 (-16.4% return)
S&P 500: $1078 (17% return)

Today's Games

San Diego (-100) @ Florida (-110)
Minnesota (-100) @ NY Mets (-110)
Boston (+110) @ San Francisco (-120)

In the first game Mat Latos is matched up against Anibal Sanchez. Latos has been a top pitcher in the National League this year and his strikeout, walk, and hit rate all look like the real deal. His hit rate may be a little low, but even if that corrects he is still top notch. There is no signs of him slowing down. Sanchez is having a decent year at 7-4 with a 3.30 ERA, but his indicators show he's just an average pitcher. His ERA should probably be more towards 4 instead of 3. I like the Padres at even money with their young stub on the mound.

In the second game Scott Baker is matched up against Jonathon Niese. Baker has a very good strikeout to walk ratio, but he gives up a lot of fly balls so his hit rate is up plus he gives up a decent amount of extra base hits including home runs. If he can learn to get some ground balls he will become a good pitcher pretty fast. Niese is a youngster that has some potential. His indicators look pretty average, and the fact that he's young means he will be inconsistent. He was just rocked his last time out, so his confidence might be a little shot. I like Baker to throw a quality game versus a National League lineup.

In the third game Jon Lester is matched up against Tim Lincecum in what should be a great game. Both pitchers are top notch and both teams and playing well. Other than Lincecum having slightly better stuff these pitchers are very similar. Lincecum is really tough to beat at home and that is the only reason while I'll lean with the Giants in this one.

Bets

$10 SD -100
$10 MIN -100
$12 SF -120

No Action Yesterday

I most likely will not be betting on any baseball games the rest of the regular season, but you can bet that I will be betting on the playoffs. I'll take a look at the Zack Greinke matchup tomorrow as he is trying to lock up the CY Young. I doubt I’ll have any college football games, but check back on Sunday to see NFL picks.

An interesting stat: Tim Lincecum did not allow a home run at home this season, a span of 124.1 innings pitched. He is just insane.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1030 (11.8% return)

Today’s Games

None

No Action Yesterday

It’s nice to see the NFL season starting again. I might bet a couple games next week now that I have a little feel for the teams. The one thing to remember about the NFL is that teams are not as good or bad as you think. I generally like to bet on teams that looked horrible the week before or against media over-hyped teams. A good example of this theory was the Jets/Texans game yesterday. The Jets were starting a rookie on the road while the Texans were supposed to have a high powered offense, so the -5 line seemed a little low. I bet Vegas made a killing on that game.

Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today’s Games

Cleveland (+140) @ Minnesota (-160)
Colorado (+170) @ San Francisco (-180)

In the first game Jeremy Sowers is matched up against Carl Pavano. Sowers is a soft tossing left hander who has control issues. He really is not a major league pitcher, and I have yet to figure out why the Indians continue to give him opportunities. His K’s are way below the major league average at 3.69 and his walks are above the major league average at 3.61. He is also a fly ball pitcher. Not much to like here. Pavano is having an average season after being out most of the last 3 years due to injury. His indicators are pretty good and he has been throwing well over the last few months. He does occasionally get lit up, and that has really hurt his overall numbers. I doubt the Indians will light him up, and the Twins should be able to cross the plate a few times against Sowers.

In the second game Jason Hammel is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Hammel is turning into a solid middle of the rotation starter, and has been throwing well as of late. But I do not think he will out duel the rested Lincecum, who had his last start skipped due to a stiff lower back. Lincecum should have a little extra on his pitches and I really would not be surprised to see him go the distance in this must win game. The kid is so competitive that once he’s out there on the mound he will be fine.

Bet

$16 MIN -160
$36 SF -180

CC Dominates, Yankees Win

It took until the 9th inning for the Yankees offense to wake up, but CC pitched well enough anyway, giving up 1 run in 7 and striking out 9. $20 is not too good of a return off $48, but I’ll take it.

Portfolio: $1044 (13.4% return)
S&P 500: $995 (8% return)

Today’s Games

San Francisco (-140) @ Philadelphia (+120)

In the only game I like today Tim Lincecum is matched up against Pedro Martinez. I have written about Lincecum enough that you should know what I think of him. He is coming off an 8 inning, 0 run performance against the Rockies and looks to continue that at Philadelphia. He does not really allow the long ball and that is one of the reasons why I like him here. The Phillies strikeout a decent amount and that’s not good news when facing the major league leader in that category. Also, Lincecum carved them up pretty good last month. Martinez has had 4 starts since being signed by the Phillies and none of them were anything special. He’s also not expected to go deep into games. He’s obviously lost most of his stuff, but his control his still there. Not that it really matters since the Giants make every pitcher look like a control freak. I like the Giants here and look for Lincecum to reach the 10 K mark. What a pitching matchup this would have been if the Pedro of 1999 was facing the Lincecum of today. I would definitely pay to see that one.

I will be out of town from Friday until Tuesday and I’m not sure how much I will be able to update my blog. I generally need some time to look over the games and I’m not sure if I’ll be able to do that. Also, only a week away from football season.

Bets

$28 SF -140

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)

Today’s Games

Chicago White Sox (+200) @ New York Yankees (-240)
Washington (+170) @ St. Louis (-190)
Colorado (+110) @ San Francisco (-130)

In the first game Mark Buehrle is matched up against CC Sabathia. Buehrle has struggled ever since his perfect game and has been getting hit hard lately while his K’s have dropped. Sabathia has won his last 4 starts and is in CY Young form. His pinpoint control and increased K rate are the main drivers behind that. When he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes it’s really hard to score runs off him. I look for the Yankees and CC to cruise in this one.

In the second game John Lannan is matched up against John Smoltz. Lannan has been getting absolutely tagged lately as his ERA is 12.00 over his last 3 starts, not good news facing the Cardinals. Smoltz is coming off his only decent start this year, and should have the confidence he lacked earlier in the season with the Red Sox. I’ve been saying all along that he still has some left in the tank, and if you type in “Smoltz” in the search on the top left corner of the page you can see my past analysis of him. His K and BB rates are right in line with his last 2 healthy seasons. I like the Cardinals to win easily.

In the third game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Tim Lincecum for the second time in 5 days. Jimenez pitched great and Lincecum pitched below his standards and the Rockies won 4-2. Jimenez is on top of his game right now, but I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t be up for the challenge to get even. Lincecum has struggled with control his last 2 starts, so if he can get that fixed, which I think he will, he should be in a position to dominate. This is a true test for both starters in another huge series, and Lincecum will come out on top this time.

Bets

$24 NYY -240
$19 STL -190
$26 SF -130

Yankees Lose, Cardinals Win - Up $5

It's always good when you split and gain money.

Portfolio: $1093 (18.7% return)

S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

Today's Games

Florida (+120) @ Atlanta (-130)

San Francisco (+100) @ Colorado (-110)

New York Yankees (+110) @ Boston (-120)

In the first game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Derek Lowe. Nolasco struggled early in the year, was sent down to the minors for a few starts, and has been pretty good ever since he was called up. He was roughed up 2 starts ago, but has been dominant other than that over the last 2 months. His strikeout and walk rates are ace caliber, so it's really no surprise that he's turned it around. Lowe on the the other hand got off to a good start, but has struggled the last few months. It looks like his skills are deteriorating as his strikeouts have dropped, his walks have increased, and his ground ball rate has dropped which has led to a higher hit rate. He is 36 years old so he might never get his stuff back again. I look for the underdog Marlins with their potential dominant starter to take the rubber game of this big series.

In the second game Tim Lincecum is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but didn't look to impressive in his last start against the lowly Reds. Jimenez is turning into the Rockies ace and has been lights out as of late, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA over his last 3. His dominance should not continue as his walk rate is up and his hit rate is down. I look for Lincecum to bounce back and win the rubber game of this huge series.

In the third game CC Sabathia is going up against Josh Beckett in a rematch of the 2007 ALCS game 5. Sabathia has been in Cy Young form as of late and his indicators reflect that. Beckett was roughed up his last start and has been giving up the long ball lately, which is not good when facing the Yankees. After two uneven games, I looks for the Yankees and the red hot Sabathia to take this rubber game.

Bets

$20 FLA +120

$30 SF +100

$20 NYY +110

My Losing Ways Continue

The Rays lost 6-0 as Ervin Santana threw a 3 hit gem. On the positive side I only bet $12.

Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $994 (7.9% return)

Today's Game

Los Angeles Dodgers (+180) @ San Francisco Giants (-190)

I'm going with a safe one today to get back on the winning track. Journey man Jeff Weaver is matched up against Tim Lincecum. The Dodgers won the last 2 nights and Lincecum will make sure the Giants don't get swept by the division leader because that's what top ace's do. Weaver is nothing special and the Giants should have no problem scoring.

Bet

$38 SF -190

Smoltz Gets Rocked Again, Red Sox Lose

Wow, John Smoltz continued his streak of bad pitching and I'm starting to wonder if he really has lost it. Good thing I only bet $10.

Portfolio: $987 (7.2% return)

S&P 500: $997 (8.3% return)

Today's Games

Boston (+110) @ New York Yankees (-120)

Chicago Cubs (+130) @ Colorado (-140)

Cincinnati (+260) @ San Francisco (-320)

In the first game Josh Beckett is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Beckett is having a solid season and his indicators are right on his career averages. He is a top 10 pitcher and one thing he has improved this year is his ground ball rate which has brought his hit rate and home runs down. Burnett is having an average season for him by going 10-5 with a 3.89 ERA although it looks like his skills aren't all the way there. His strikeouts are down, walks are up, and his ground ball rate is at it's lowest in 8 years which has lead to more home runs. I look for him to struggle against a patient Boston offense that has lit him up twice this year.

In the second game Carlos Zambrano is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. You can see my analysis on Zambrano from 7/27 as not much has changed. Jimenez is a solid ground ball pitcher who strikes out 8.02 per nine. He has really cut down on his walks this year, going to 3.38 BB/9 from 4.67 BB/9 last year. He is even better in his last 4 starts only giving up 2.57 BB/9 and that's largely why he's 2-0 over that span. Basically he has such good stuff that if he can find his control he has a pretty good chance of winning, and since he has had good control recently I like Colorado at -140.

In the third game Homer Bailey is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Bailey was once a top prospect but has failed to show anything in the big leagues. He has not struck out many and walks too many and he is also a slight fly ball pitcher. Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball and has pitched better at home than on the road. Add in the fact that the Reds have one of the worst offenses and this should be a piece of cake for the Giants. I never like to bet games that are this heavily favored since there is too much risk, but this is almost automatic and I need to keep up with the S&P 500.

Bets

$20 BOS +110

$28 COL -140

$32 SF -320

On A Cold Streak, Red Sox Lose Again

Beckett pitched well enough to win, but the Red Sox offense continued to slump. It’s been a rough few days, but my gains are still positive and I’m beating the S&P 500 by 2.2%.

Portfolio: $975 (5.9% return)
S&P 500: $955 (3.7% return)

Today’s Game

San Francisco (-110) @ Atlanta (-120)

Tim Lincecum is going up against Jair Jurrjens in a matchup of two good, young pitchers. If you have read previous posts or look at past analysis, I am pretty high on Lincecum. I bet on him last game at -150 and lost, and I said that we would probably never see a better line for him the rest of the season. Well, the Giants have been slumping lately, especially their offense while losing 5 of 6. This has set up a perfect situation to bet on. Lincecum should put up a pretty solid start against an average Braves offense in a pitchers ballpark, so the Giants won’t need much runs to win. Jurrjens has been pitching pretty well lately, but it doesn’t look like he can keep up it up. His 2.77 ERA is low considering that his strikeouts are down, walks are up, and ground balls are down. He is benefitting by a low hit rate and high runners stranded rate, both of which are mainly luck. Look for the Giants offense to wake up and score a handful of runs in an easy win.

Bets

$44 SF -110

Pretty Good Night

I hit both games yesterday to bring my portfolio up $58.

Portfolio: $1076 (16.8% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)

Today's Game

San Francisco (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)

Tim Lincecum is matched up against Paul Maholm in what should be a win for the Giants. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion and at -150 I think this is a great bet. I do not know why the line is so low since he is facing a below average hitting team. My guess is because he struggled a little in the All-Star game and that was only 3 days ago. But Lincecum is a dominant strikeout pitcher who happens to be on top of his game. He doesn't walk too many and gets ground balls. Maholm is a finesse lefty who doesn't strikeout or walk many. He is a ground ball pitcher, but this year he is getting around 20% fewer ground balls. In Lincecum's last 3 starts he is 3-0 with a 1.19 and 25 K's in 22 2/3 innings. Maholm is 2-0 with a 5.19 ERA and 5 K's in 17 1/3 innings. I don't think the Pirates will be scoring too many runs tonight. At -150 I think this is a steal.

Bets

$45 SF -150

KC Barely Scores Enough

The Royals ended up winning 3-2, with Greinke pitching well and Morton struggling. A rain delay caused Greinke to only last 6 1/3 innings. Otherwise, he probably would have went the distance. I gained a solid $30.

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)

Today's Games

San Francisco (-130) @ St. Louis (+110)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)

Tim Lincecum is matched up against Brad Thompson. I'm not sure why the Giants are not favored by more, since they have a better record and have one of the best pitchers in baseball going up against an average pitcher at best. Lincecum is dominant, averaging 10.63 K/9 while only allowing 2.4 BB/9. Mix that in with the fact that he gets more ground ball than fly ball outs, which means he is less likely to give up extra base hits. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 26 innings while striking out 29 and only walking 3. He's in peak form. Thompson is a heavy ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact having only struck out 13 batters in 42 innings, and none in his last 12. He has good control in only walking 2.36 batters per 9, so the free swinging Giants probably won't draw a single walk off him. He's giving up the major league average of about a hit per inning, but that shouldn't last as that is about a hit per inning below his career average. I think the Giants are a no brainer here, and I think the line isn't more in their favor because of the DeRosa trade. A trade usually brings up the moral of a team and they play better, but I don't think that will be the case tonight since they are going up against Lincecum. Should be interesting to see the Pujols vs. Lincecum battles. I'm going to bet the max I can (5%).

In the second game, Rich Harden is matched up against Zach Duke. Harden has nasty stuff with a K/9 rate of 10, but walks a lot of batters with a 4.5 BB/9 rate. He also throws a lot of pitches which leads to a lot of early exits. His strikeout rate is in line with his career average but the reason why he has a 4-4 record with a 4.95 ERA is due to his walk rate being up along with his hit rate. Harden’s walk rate is up 0.60 BB/9 and his hit rate of 8.10 per 9 is almost 1 hit per inning more than his career average. This may be due to the fact that he is no longer a ground ball pitcher. Wrigley is not a good place for fly ball pitchers and this shows with a home ERA of 6.31 compared to a road ERA of 2.96. Good thing this game is at PNC. Zach Duke on the other hand is a strike throwing ground ball pitcher who won’t miss a lot of bats. Duke is having a good year with an 8-5 record and a 3.09 ERA, but that shouldn’t last. His strikeout rate and walk rate are normal, but his hit rate is 8.57 per 9 compared to his 10.65 per 9 career average. This is odd given the fact that his groundball rate is the lowest of his career. Also, a move to the mean has already started as he has given up 29 hits in his last 26 innings. The thing that Duke has going for him is that he is a lefty, but with the Cubs right handed heavy lineup I think they are in line to score a few runs tonight.

Bets

$39 SF -130
$22 CHC -110

First Win

That was an easy $44 last night, with the Rockies easily winning 11-1. Here's the updated financial situation. Remember, this is not real money, just a simulation to see how much I can outgain the stock market.

Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 893 (-3% return)

Today's Picks

Two late game's look good tonight, San Francisco (-130) @ Oakland (+110) and Colorado (+100) @ LA Angels (-120).

Tim Lincecum is going up against the rookie Vin Mazzaro for the second time this year. The Giants won with Lincecum throwing a complete game shutout a couple weeks ago. Lincecum is the best pitcher in all of baseball in my opinion, with 3 plus pitches he can throw at any time. He's a high strikeout pitcher that gets a good amount of goundballs, pretty rare. Mazzaro is a good prospect that has shown he is hard to hit. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has decent control. This is right up Lincecum's alley with Oakland being a poor hitting team and their ballpark being a pitcher's park. The Giants should win a low scoring affair tonight with Lincecum possibly throwing another gem.

Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against another rookie Sean O'Sullivan in the second game. Jimenez is a heavy ground ball pitcher that throws hard. He's not really a strikeout pitcher, but if his stuff is good, he can miss some bats. O'Sullivan is a decent prospect that has pretty good control for a youngster. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has shown good K/BB ratio's in the past. He has struggled in the minors this year going 6-4 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while splitting time in AA and AAA. The Rockies are on fire lately and should jump on the righty O'Sullivan early with their lefty dominant lineup.

I like the veterans, if you can call Lincecum and Jimenez veterans, to previal against the good prospects in both games. I like the Rockies hitting and the Athletics lack of hitting.

Bets

$39 SF -130
$30 COL +100