Portfolio: $833 (-9.6% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today's Games
Texas (-150) @ Boston (+140)
In the only game today newly acquired Cliff Lee is matched up against the struggling John Lackey. By staying in the American League, Cliff Lee has a chance for his second CY Young award. His indicators are career bests so it looks like he will continue his dominance and lead the Rangers to the postseason. He is exactly what the heavy hitting Rangers needed. John Lackey is looking like a bad acquisition for the Red Sox, and that has been rare the last few years. I don't know if he's hurt, feeling too much pressure, or just losing his stuff. Maybe it's a combination, but he is having his worst season as a pro. His indicators are horrible. His strikeouts per nine are down 1.5 from his career average, his walks per nine are up 1, and his hits per nine are up 1.5. That puts his indicators this year at fringe major league starter. Add that to the fact that Boston is missing serious offensive production and the Rangers at -150 look like a great pick. Max bet (5%) on Texas with a CY Young contender facing a makeshift lineup with a struggling starter.
Bets
$30 TEX -150
Showing posts with label john lackey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label john lackey. Show all posts
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
1-2, Down $12 from Sunday
And the losing continues.
Portfolio: $758 (-17.7% return)
S&P 500: $1039 (12.8% return)
Today’s Games
Seattle (+150) @ NY Yankees (-160)
In my only game Cliff Lee is matched up against Phil Hughes. Lee has been spectacular this year with a 2.39 ERA and 4 complete games, but his record is only 6-3. This is just another example of how wins and losses are a fluke stat. Lee’s strikeout rate is the second highest of his career and almost a full batter per nine higher than the last 2 years, which were his best. All of his indicators are actually a little better than his 2008 CY Young year. He has only walked 4 batters in 86 2/3 innings. He is coming off back to back complete games and all signs are pointing in the right direction for him to continue. Hughes has good stuff and solid indicators. He got off to a great start and then stumbled a little. He is coming off a skipped start due to workload concerns, and I’m not sure how he’ll react. I know the Mariners offense is horrible, but I’m not sure what the Yankees will get out of Hughes in this start. I’ll take a leading CY Young candidate at +150 odds any day.
Bets
$10 SEA +150
Portfolio: $758 (-17.7% return)
S&P 500: $1039 (12.8% return)
Today’s Games
Seattle (+150) @ NY Yankees (-160)
In my only game Cliff Lee is matched up against Phil Hughes. Lee has been spectacular this year with a 2.39 ERA and 4 complete games, but his record is only 6-3. This is just another example of how wins and losses are a fluke stat. Lee’s strikeout rate is the second highest of his career and almost a full batter per nine higher than the last 2 years, which were his best. All of his indicators are actually a little better than his 2008 CY Young year. He has only walked 4 batters in 86 2/3 innings. He is coming off back to back complete games and all signs are pointing in the right direction for him to continue. Hughes has good stuff and solid indicators. He got off to a great start and then stumbled a little. He is coming off a skipped start due to workload concerns, and I’m not sure how he’ll react. I know the Mariners offense is horrible, but I’m not sure what the Yankees will get out of Hughes in this start. I’ll take a leading CY Young candidate at +150 odds any day.
Bets
$10 SEA +150
Friday, October 16, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1097 (19.1% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Angels (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)
After a quiet week I finally see a game I like. John Lackey is matched up against CC Sabathia in Game 1 of the ALCS. Lackey struggled down the stretch of the regular season but pitched great against the Red Sox in the ALDS. His strikeouts and walks were down at the end of the season and in his start against the Red Sox. The strikeouts being down worries me a little but less walks are a good sign. He is a big game pitcher who has had success in the postseason throughout his career. He definitely will not go out and lay an egg. Sabathia was dominant down the stretch of the regular season and dominated the Twins in the ALDS. Believe it or not that was his first dominant postseason start of his career. Being an Indians fan I have seen him pitch most of his career and I can tell you that he is not a big game pitcher. Even in the regular season if there was a big game he wouldn’t deliver. I was actually not that upset when the Indians traded him last year because I knew he has never won the big game and I did not see him turning it around. In all of his previous postseason starts he clams up and loses his control. In 2007 he walked 37 batters in 241 innings, but in the postseason that year he walked 13 in 15 1/3 innings. The Indians probably would have won the World Series that year if CC was somewhat decent. The Angels have a veteran lineup that is aware of CC’s postseason struggles and will make him work. If CC believes this is a big game then he will struggle. I think the Angels at +150 are a great value play. I’m betting my maximum amount of $40, or 4.3%.
Bets
$40 LAA +150
S&P 500: $1097 (19.1% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Angels (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)
After a quiet week I finally see a game I like. John Lackey is matched up against CC Sabathia in Game 1 of the ALCS. Lackey struggled down the stretch of the regular season but pitched great against the Red Sox in the ALDS. His strikeouts and walks were down at the end of the season and in his start against the Red Sox. The strikeouts being down worries me a little but less walks are a good sign. He is a big game pitcher who has had success in the postseason throughout his career. He definitely will not go out and lay an egg. Sabathia was dominant down the stretch of the regular season and dominated the Twins in the ALDS. Believe it or not that was his first dominant postseason start of his career. Being an Indians fan I have seen him pitch most of his career and I can tell you that he is not a big game pitcher. Even in the regular season if there was a big game he wouldn’t deliver. I was actually not that upset when the Indians traded him last year because I knew he has never won the big game and I did not see him turning it around. In all of his previous postseason starts he clams up and loses his control. In 2007 he walked 37 batters in 241 innings, but in the postseason that year he walked 13 in 15 1/3 innings. The Indians probably would have won the World Series that year if CC was somewhat decent. The Angels have a veteran lineup that is aware of CC’s postseason struggles and will make him work. If CC believes this is a big game then he will struggle. I think the Angels at +150 are a great value play. I’m betting my maximum amount of $40, or 4.3%.
Bets
$40 LAA +150
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Rough Day, 0-2 and Down $50
My free fall continues, but things will turn around.
Portfolio: $956 (3.8% return)
S&P 500: $1058 (14.9% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-110) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)
In the only game I like today Jon Lester is matched up against John Lackey. Lester is probably the best left handed starter in the playoffs and he has been dominant in the second half on the season. He has had one bad start in the last 2 months and his indicators are really strong. Lackey is a solid veteran pitcher who has struggled lately. His hit rate is up and it has been slightly up all year which means he may be losing a little, but not too much to get worried. I like Boston to take game 1 as Lester is the more stable option.
Bets
$22 BOS
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
2-0, Up $30
Not a bad night. That Patriots/Bills game last night was crazy. Both football games last night once again showed how unpredictable the first week of the season is, and why I stayed away from it.
Portfolio: $1122 (21.8% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)
By looking at the chart below you can see that my returns compared to the S&P 500 are more volatile, but that I have been outpacing it most of the time. This is just the beginning, spread the word to people that you think would find this quick daily read interesting. Once baseball season ends there will be less posts, and I'm not sure how much NBA I will get into. But you can expect football picks and most likely some college basketball.
Today’s Games
Kansas City (+150) @ Detroit (-170)
Los Angeles Angels (-110) @ Boston (-110)
In the first game today Robinson Tejeda is matched up against Jarrod Washburn. Tejeda has not allowed a run since becoming a starter, a span of 13 innings over 2 starts. His stuff has been electric and he has really cut down on his walks. The Tigers couldn’t touch him in his last start. Washburn has underachieved for the Tigers after the trade, but has fared well against the Royals this year. He has been getting tagged as of late and his indicators point to him keeping it up. I like the Royals in a good value play here as this game should be a pick’em.
In the second game today John Lackey is matched up against Diasuke Matsuzaka. The Angels ace has been on top of his game lately and should keep it up in what will most likely be a Division Series matchup. Lackey is a big game pitcher who will be up for this game. Matsuzaka has not pitched in the majors since June. He throws way too many pitches and walks too many. He will not last past the 6th against a good Angels team. I’m not sure why the line is even, but I’ll take the Angels at this value.
Bet
$10 KC +150
$22 LAA -110
Portfolio: $1122 (21.8% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)
By looking at the chart below you can see that my returns compared to the S&P 500 are more volatile, but that I have been outpacing it most of the time. This is just the beginning, spread the word to people that you think would find this quick daily read interesting. Once baseball season ends there will be less posts, and I'm not sure how much NBA I will get into. But you can expect football picks and most likely some college basketball.
Today’s Games
Kansas City (+150) @ Detroit (-170)
Los Angeles Angels (-110) @ Boston (-110)
In the first game today Robinson Tejeda is matched up against Jarrod Washburn. Tejeda has not allowed a run since becoming a starter, a span of 13 innings over 2 starts. His stuff has been electric and he has really cut down on his walks. The Tigers couldn’t touch him in his last start. Washburn has underachieved for the Tigers after the trade, but has fared well against the Royals this year. He has been getting tagged as of late and his indicators point to him keeping it up. I like the Royals in a good value play here as this game should be a pick’em.
In the second game today John Lackey is matched up against Diasuke Matsuzaka. The Angels ace has been on top of his game lately and should keep it up in what will most likely be a Division Series matchup. Lackey is a big game pitcher who will be up for this game. Matsuzaka has not pitched in the majors since June. He throws way too many pitches and walks too many. He will not last past the 6th against a good Angels team. I’m not sure why the line is even, but I’ll take the Angels at this value.
Bet
$10 KC +150
$22 LAA -110
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