That was not the type of performance the Phillies hoped to see from their newly acquired pitcher. Maybe the whole trade process affected in mentally, which was probably the case since he's been with the Astros for so long.
Portfolio: $755 (-18% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)
Today's Games
Philadelphia (-170) @ Washington (+150)
Florida (-140) @ San Diego (+120)
In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against John Lannan. Hamels is having an average year and can't seem to turn the corner. His strikeouts are up but so are his walks. His hits are down so that also tells me his stuff is better this year. I like him to be strong down the stretch. Lannan was just called up since Strasburg was put on the DL. Lannan really struggled when he was up earlier this year and that does not surprise me. He can't miss bats. His strikeout rate was 2.88 per nine when he was sent down. That's not good when facing a hot Phillies lineup.
In the second game Josh Johnson is facing Jon Garland. Johnson is one of the leading CY young candidates in the NL and his indicators show it. He let up more than 2 earned runs (3) in his last start for the first time in a while. I look for his dominance to continue against a light hitting Padres team. Garland has put up some good numbers recently and very well could continue that. He is the ace of this staff so far and I expect this to be a good game, but I just don't think the Padres can score enough runs off Johnson.
Bets
$34 PHI -170
$14 FLA -140
Showing posts with label josh johnson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label josh johnson. Show all posts
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Two Games Wednesday
Portfolio: $773 (-16.1% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)
Today's Games
San Francisco (-130) @ Milwaukee (+120)
Florida (-120) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+110)
In the first game back to back NL CY Young winner Tim Lincecum is matched up against erratic Chris Narveson. Lincecum has struggled more than usual this year but his ERA is still 3.28 and he still has solid indicators. His control is was is hurting him as he's walking 1 more batter per nine than last year. He was not too impressive in his last outing but I think he'll start to turn it around soon. Narveson looks like he is just an average pitcher at best and is prone to giving up big innings. With this big of a pitching mismatch and the Giants having the better team I am scratching my head why the line is this low. Max bet on Giants -130.
In the second game CY Young front runner runner Josh Johnson is matched up against the the solid Hiroki Kuroda. Johnson is having a season of a lifetime since he has not given up more than 2 earned runs since May 8th. That is 10 starts! His indicators are rock solid and the best of his career and I expect him to throw well again tonight. Kuroda is a decent pitcher who won't overpower anyone so he is prone to letting up lots of runs from time to time. He was roughed up in his last 2 starts and his control hasn't been there this year. I don't expect him to get rocked again tonight, I just don't expect him to out duel Johnson. Max bet on Florida.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$36 FLA -120
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)
Today's Games
San Francisco (-130) @ Milwaukee (+120)
Florida (-120) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+110)
In the first game back to back NL CY Young winner Tim Lincecum is matched up against erratic Chris Narveson. Lincecum has struggled more than usual this year but his ERA is still 3.28 and he still has solid indicators. His control is was is hurting him as he's walking 1 more batter per nine than last year. He was not too impressive in his last outing but I think he'll start to turn it around soon. Narveson looks like he is just an average pitcher at best and is prone to giving up big innings. With this big of a pitching mismatch and the Giants having the better team I am scratching my head why the line is this low. Max bet on Giants -130.
In the second game CY Young front runner runner Josh Johnson is matched up against the the solid Hiroki Kuroda. Johnson is having a season of a lifetime since he has not given up more than 2 earned runs since May 8th. That is 10 starts! His indicators are rock solid and the best of his career and I expect him to throw well again tonight. Kuroda is a decent pitcher who won't overpower anyone so he is prone to letting up lots of runs from time to time. He was roughed up in his last 2 starts and his control hasn't been there this year. I don't expect him to get rocked again tonight, I just don't expect him to out duel Johnson. Max bet on Florida.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$36 FLA -120
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Two Games Sunday
Portfolio: $797 (-13.5% return)
S&P 500: $1118 (21.4% return)
Today's Games
Tampa Bay (+110) @ Florida (-120)
Cleveland (-130) @ Pittsburgh (+120)
In the first game David Price is matched up against Josh Johnson. Price is having a really good season with a 10-2 record and a 2.31 ERA, but he is struggling with his control lately. He is allowing way too many base runners and that will eventually come back to bite him. He has walked 8 batters in his last 11 innings but has only given up 3 runs. That is not going to last. Josh Johnson is having the best season of anyone not named Jimenez, and he doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon. I know Hanley might not play, but the Marlins can still hit and with this game being played in the National League I think that gives an advantage to Florida.
In the second game Justin Masterson is matched up against the rookie Brad Lincoln. Masterson seems to be putting things together lately even though his overall numbers do not show that. He throws one of the hardest sinkers in the game and can get some strikeouts when he's on. His problem is walks, but he has only walked 4 batters in his last 16 innings so that tells me he is locked in. If he can ever learn to throw strikes consistently he can be a top of the rotation starter. Brad Lincoln is making his third career start and things have not gone well for him. he allowed 5 runs in 6 innings in both starts, and he is not striking anyone out. I think Masterson will throw a pretty good game today and I think the Indians can score a decent amount of runs.
Bets
$12 FLA -120
$13 CLE -130
S&P 500: $1118 (21.4% return)
Today's Games
Tampa Bay (+110) @ Florida (-120)
Cleveland (-130) @ Pittsburgh (+120)
In the first game David Price is matched up against Josh Johnson. Price is having a really good season with a 10-2 record and a 2.31 ERA, but he is struggling with his control lately. He is allowing way too many base runners and that will eventually come back to bite him. He has walked 8 batters in his last 11 innings but has only given up 3 runs. That is not going to last. Josh Johnson is having the best season of anyone not named Jimenez, and he doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon. I know Hanley might not play, but the Marlins can still hit and with this game being played in the National League I think that gives an advantage to Florida.
In the second game Justin Masterson is matched up against the rookie Brad Lincoln. Masterson seems to be putting things together lately even though his overall numbers do not show that. He throws one of the hardest sinkers in the game and can get some strikeouts when he's on. His problem is walks, but he has only walked 4 batters in his last 16 innings so that tells me he is locked in. If he can ever learn to throw strikes consistently he can be a top of the rotation starter. Brad Lincoln is making his third career start and things have not gone well for him. he allowed 5 runs in 6 innings in both starts, and he is not striking anyone out. I think Masterson will throw a pretty good game today and I think the Indians can score a decent amount of runs.
Bets
$12 FLA -120
$13 CLE -130
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Astros Lose - Down $10
Portfolio: $855 (-7.2% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)
Today's Games
Florida (-140) @ Chicago White Sox (+120)
Colorado (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)
In the first game Josh Johnson is matched up against Freddy Garcia. Johnson is off to a great start and his indicators (K/9, BB/9, H/9) are as strong as ever. I do not see him slowing down much and I expect him to be in the CY Young talks all summer long. The veteran Garcia is an average pitcher at best. I like the Marlins at -140 and I think they should be favored by more, but since this game is in the American League the Sox have the DH advantage.
In the second game Aaron Cook is matched up against Zack Greinke. Cook is an average major league pitcher that always keeps his team in the game. He gets a lot of ground balls and does not strike out many. He has been walking more batters than usual this year, and that's not a good sign since he has very little margin for error. Greinke is having another CY Young caliber season, but is off to a 1-4 start due to some bad luck. His indicators are strong and I expect him to start picking up some wins. At -150, I think the Royals with Greinke on the hill are a pretty good play.
Bets
$14 FLA -140
$15 KC -150
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)
Today's Games
Florida (-140) @ Chicago White Sox (+120)
Colorado (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)
In the first game Josh Johnson is matched up against Freddy Garcia. Johnson is off to a great start and his indicators (K/9, BB/9, H/9) are as strong as ever. I do not see him slowing down much and I expect him to be in the CY Young talks all summer long. The veteran Garcia is an average pitcher at best. I like the Marlins at -140 and I think they should be favored by more, but since this game is in the American League the Sox have the DH advantage.
In the second game Aaron Cook is matched up against Zack Greinke. Cook is an average major league pitcher that always keeps his team in the game. He gets a lot of ground balls and does not strike out many. He has been walking more batters than usual this year, and that's not a good sign since he has very little margin for error. Greinke is having another CY Young caliber season, but is off to a 1-4 start due to some bad luck. His indicators are strong and I expect him to start picking up some wins. At -150, I think the Royals with Greinke on the hill are a pretty good play.
Bets
$14 FLA -140
$15 KC -150
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Royals Win, Angels Lose – Down $7
Robinson Tejeda had electric stuff and pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball and Dice-K surprisingly outdueled Lackey.
Portfolio: $1115 (21.1% return)
S&P 500: $1053 (14.3% return)
Today’s Games
Florida (+110) @ St. Louis (-130)
In the only game today Josh Johnson is matched up against Joel Pineiro. Johnson has had a solid season, but is showing signs of fatigue as his walks are way up lately. Other than that all his other indicators are normal. He is also being monitored closely as he is coming off Tommy John surgery. I don’t expect him to throw more than 95 pitches. Pineiro is having a career year due to pinpoint control, 1.04 BB/9, and an increased ground ball rate. He has turned himself into a heavy ground ball pitcher after being about a 55/45 ground ball to fly ball guy earlier in his career. He won’t miss many bats, but hitter’s don’t square him up that often. Florida had a bad weekend and may have fallen out of the playoff race while the Cardinals are playing for home field advantage. I like the Cardinals and Pineiro.
Bet
$26 STL -130
Portfolio: $1115 (21.1% return)
S&P 500: $1053 (14.3% return)
Today’s Games
Florida (+110) @ St. Louis (-130)
In the only game today Josh Johnson is matched up against Joel Pineiro. Johnson has had a solid season, but is showing signs of fatigue as his walks are way up lately. Other than that all his other indicators are normal. He is also being monitored closely as he is coming off Tommy John surgery. I don’t expect him to throw more than 95 pitches. Pineiro is having a career year due to pinpoint control, 1.04 BB/9, and an increased ground ball rate. He has turned himself into a heavy ground ball pitcher after being about a 55/45 ground ball to fly ball guy earlier in his career. He won’t miss many bats, but hitter’s don’t square him up that often. Florida had a bad weekend and may have fallen out of the playoff race while the Cardinals are playing for home field advantage. I like the Cardinals and Pineiro.
Bet
$26 STL -130
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Cardinals Win
The Cardinals took the 3 game series against the Dodgers in what was a great series if anyone stayed up to watch. This could very well be a playoff matchup if the Dodgers can hold on to the division.
Portfolio: $1059 (15% return)
S&P 500: $996 (8.1% return)
Today’s Games
Arizona (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
Florida (-130) @ Houston (+110)
In the first game Doug Davis is matched up against Joe Blanton. Davis has an ERA of 3.59 but it is due to rise as he as stranded a very high percentage of runners, which is mostly luck. He does not strikeout many and walks a little too many to have a mid 3 ERA. The Phillies should not have any problems leaving runners on base against this soft tossing lefty. Blanton is pretty average at 7-6 with a 3.88 ERA. His K/BB ratio of 3.14 is really good, but the long ball is what has hurt him this year. I just think the Phillies will score enough runs that it won’t matter if he gives up a couple bombs.
In the second game Josh Johnson is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Johnson is having a great season at 12-2 with a 2.85 ERA, and he’s even better in his last 3 starts going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA. His stats look pretty legit. His hit rate has been a little low lately, but he has really stepped up his strikeouts and lowered his walks, so that tells me his stuff is there. Rodriguez is having a solid season, but has struggled lately going 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA over his last 3. He’s been giving away a ton of free passes and his strikeouts have declined, so that tells me his stuff is not what is was earlier in the season. I like the Marlins with their Cy Young candidate on the mound to keep pace with the division leading Phillies.
Bets
$19 PHI -190
$13 FLA -130
Portfolio: $1059 (15% return)
S&P 500: $996 (8.1% return)
Today’s Games
Arizona (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
Florida (-130) @ Houston (+110)
In the first game Doug Davis is matched up against Joe Blanton. Davis has an ERA of 3.59 but it is due to rise as he as stranded a very high percentage of runners, which is mostly luck. He does not strikeout many and walks a little too many to have a mid 3 ERA. The Phillies should not have any problems leaving runners on base against this soft tossing lefty. Blanton is pretty average at 7-6 with a 3.88 ERA. His K/BB ratio of 3.14 is really good, but the long ball is what has hurt him this year. I just think the Phillies will score enough runs that it won’t matter if he gives up a couple bombs.
In the second game Josh Johnson is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Johnson is having a great season at 12-2 with a 2.85 ERA, and he’s even better in his last 3 starts going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA. His stats look pretty legit. His hit rate has been a little low lately, but he has really stepped up his strikeouts and lowered his walks, so that tells me his stuff is there. Rodriguez is having a solid season, but has struggled lately going 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA over his last 3. He’s been giving away a ton of free passes and his strikeouts have declined, so that tells me his stuff is not what is was earlier in the season. I like the Marlins with their Cy Young candidate on the mound to keep pace with the division leading Phillies.
Bets
$19 PHI -190
$13 FLA -130
Friday, July 24, 2009
S&P 500 Gaining
The S&P 500 gained $22 yesterday to distance itself from my portfolio.
Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $976 (6% return)
Today’s Game
Florida (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
In the game I like today Josh Johnson is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Johnson is having a great year after missing most of the last two years due to injury. His 8-2 record and 2.74 ERA look legit. He strikes out his fair share at 7.66 K/9 and doesn’t walk too many at 2.46 BB/9. He is also a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t give up the long ball. Kershaw is having a really good season too with an 8-5 record and a 2.95 ERA, but it doesn’t look to stay that way. He strikes out a decent amount at 8.77 K/9, but he walks way too many at 5.06 BB/9. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, but doesn’t give up the long ball. He has really benefitted from an extremely low hit rate, especially in his last 3 starts where he went 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA. He has really good stuff, and his hit rate will tend to be lower than normal because of that and the fact that he is effectively wild, but his 5.91 H/9 rate is unsustainable. Once he learns how to throw more strikes he should be dominant, but he’s not there yet. Both teams are playing well and are coming off sweeps. At +140, I think the Marlins are a good value play with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$20 FLA +140
Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $976 (6% return)
Today’s Game
Florida (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
In the game I like today Josh Johnson is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Johnson is having a great year after missing most of the last two years due to injury. His 8-2 record and 2.74 ERA look legit. He strikes out his fair share at 7.66 K/9 and doesn’t walk too many at 2.46 BB/9. He is also a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t give up the long ball. Kershaw is having a really good season too with an 8-5 record and a 2.95 ERA, but it doesn’t look to stay that way. He strikes out a decent amount at 8.77 K/9, but he walks way too many at 5.06 BB/9. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, but doesn’t give up the long ball. He has really benefitted from an extremely low hit rate, especially in his last 3 starts where he went 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA. He has really good stuff, and his hit rate will tend to be lower than normal because of that and the fact that he is effectively wild, but his 5.91 H/9 rate is unsustainable. Once he learns how to throw more strikes he should be dominant, but he’s not there yet. Both teams are playing well and are coming off sweeps. At +140, I think the Marlins are a good value play with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$20 FLA +140
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Giants Lose 2-1 in 14
I was right about the Pirates not scoring many runs, but the Giants offense was even worse. Their only run came off a Pittsburgh error. At -150, I still think that was one of the better bets I've seen lately. I'm not sure how many times we'll get better than -150 on Lincecum the rest of the year.
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
Philadelphia (+110) @ Florida (-120)
In the only game I like today Joe Blanton is matched up against Josh Johnson. The strikeout and walk rates of both pitcher's are the basically the same. The main difference between the two is that Johnson has a little better stuff and gets more ground balls. Both have also been pitching well as of late, and their rates look pretty normal. The Phillies have a better offense and defense, and that is why I like them at +110.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
Philadelphia (+110) @ Florida (-120)
In the only game I like today Joe Blanton is matched up against Josh Johnson. The strikeout and walk rates of both pitcher's are the basically the same. The main difference between the two is that Johnson has a little better stuff and gets more ground balls. Both have also been pitching well as of late, and their rates look pretty normal. The Phillies have a better offense and defense, and that is why I like them at +110.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
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