Smoltz Gets Rocked Again, Red Sox Lose

Wow, John Smoltz continued his streak of bad pitching and I'm starting to wonder if he really has lost it. Good thing I only bet $10.

Portfolio: $987 (7.2% return)

S&P 500: $997 (8.3% return)

Today's Games

Boston (+110) @ New York Yankees (-120)

Chicago Cubs (+130) @ Colorado (-140)

Cincinnati (+260) @ San Francisco (-320)

In the first game Josh Beckett is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Beckett is having a solid season and his indicators are right on his career averages. He is a top 10 pitcher and one thing he has improved this year is his ground ball rate which has brought his hit rate and home runs down. Burnett is having an average season for him by going 10-5 with a 3.89 ERA although it looks like his skills aren't all the way there. His strikeouts are down, walks are up, and his ground ball rate is at it's lowest in 8 years which has lead to more home runs. I look for him to struggle against a patient Boston offense that has lit him up twice this year.

In the second game Carlos Zambrano is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. You can see my analysis on Zambrano from 7/27 as not much has changed. Jimenez is a solid ground ball pitcher who strikes out 8.02 per nine. He has really cut down on his walks this year, going to 3.38 BB/9 from 4.67 BB/9 last year. He is even better in his last 4 starts only giving up 2.57 BB/9 and that's largely why he's 2-0 over that span. Basically he has such good stuff that if he can find his control he has a pretty good chance of winning, and since he has had good control recently I like Colorado at -140.

In the third game Homer Bailey is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Bailey was once a top prospect but has failed to show anything in the big leagues. He has not struck out many and walks too many and he is also a slight fly ball pitcher. Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball and has pitched better at home than on the road. Add in the fact that the Reds have one of the worst offenses and this should be a piece of cake for the Giants. I never like to bet games that are this heavily favored since there is too much risk, but this is almost automatic and I need to keep up with the S&P 500.

Bets

$20 BOS +110

$28 COL -140

$32 SF -320