Rough Night - Down $75

Looks like I was way off on the Red Sox game as Lester was the one who lasted 2 1/3 innings and Chamberlain went 6. The Marlins also blew a save after burning me Wednesday night by coming back against Philadelphia. It's tough going 0-fer when betting favorites in baseball, but overall my portfolio is still in decent shape. I'm still not comfortable betting on college football yet.

Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)

S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)

Today's Games

St. Louis (+130) @ Colorado (-140)

In the only game today Adam Wainwright is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez in a possible division series match up. Wainwright is sharp right now and is looking to lock up some more votes for the CY Young and clinch the division for his team. I do not see a weakness in his game. Jimenez is the Rockies ace and is looking to help his team nail down the wild card, but has been inconsistent lately as his walk rate has spiked. I like the Cardinals in a good value play here.

Bet

$20 STL +130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)

Today’s Games

Chicago White Sox (+200) @ New York Yankees (-240)
Washington (+170) @ St. Louis (-190)
Colorado (+110) @ San Francisco (-130)

In the first game Mark Buehrle is matched up against CC Sabathia. Buehrle has struggled ever since his perfect game and has been getting hit hard lately while his K’s have dropped. Sabathia has won his last 4 starts and is in CY Young form. His pinpoint control and increased K rate are the main drivers behind that. When he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes it’s really hard to score runs off him. I look for the Yankees and CC to cruise in this one.

In the second game John Lannan is matched up against John Smoltz. Lannan has been getting absolutely tagged lately as his ERA is 12.00 over his last 3 starts, not good news facing the Cardinals. Smoltz is coming off his only decent start this year, and should have the confidence he lacked earlier in the season with the Red Sox. I’ve been saying all along that he still has some left in the tank, and if you type in “Smoltz” in the search on the top left corner of the page you can see my past analysis of him. His K and BB rates are right in line with his last 2 healthy seasons. I like the Cardinals to win easily.

In the third game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Tim Lincecum for the second time in 5 days. Jimenez pitched great and Lincecum pitched below his standards and the Rockies won 4-2. Jimenez is on top of his game right now, but I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t be up for the challenge to get even. Lincecum has struggled with control his last 2 starts, so if he can get that fixed, which I think he will, he should be in a position to dominate. This is a true test for both starters in another huge series, and Lincecum will come out on top this time.

Bets

$24 NYY -240
$19 STL -190
$26 SF -130

Smoltz Gets Rocked Again, Red Sox Lose

Wow, John Smoltz continued his streak of bad pitching and I'm starting to wonder if he really has lost it. Good thing I only bet $10.

Portfolio: $987 (7.2% return)

S&P 500: $997 (8.3% return)

Today's Games

Boston (+110) @ New York Yankees (-120)

Chicago Cubs (+130) @ Colorado (-140)

Cincinnati (+260) @ San Francisco (-320)

In the first game Josh Beckett is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Beckett is having a solid season and his indicators are right on his career averages. He is a top 10 pitcher and one thing he has improved this year is his ground ball rate which has brought his hit rate and home runs down. Burnett is having an average season for him by going 10-5 with a 3.89 ERA although it looks like his skills aren't all the way there. His strikeouts are down, walks are up, and his ground ball rate is at it's lowest in 8 years which has lead to more home runs. I look for him to struggle against a patient Boston offense that has lit him up twice this year.

In the second game Carlos Zambrano is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. You can see my analysis on Zambrano from 7/27 as not much has changed. Jimenez is a solid ground ball pitcher who strikes out 8.02 per nine. He has really cut down on his walks this year, going to 3.38 BB/9 from 4.67 BB/9 last year. He is even better in his last 4 starts only giving up 2.57 BB/9 and that's largely why he's 2-0 over that span. Basically he has such good stuff that if he can find his control he has a pretty good chance of winning, and since he has had good control recently I like Colorado at -140.

In the third game Homer Bailey is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Bailey was once a top prospect but has failed to show anything in the big leagues. He has not struck out many and walks too many and he is also a slight fly ball pitcher. Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball and has pitched better at home than on the road. Add in the fact that the Reds have one of the worst offenses and this should be a piece of cake for the Giants. I never like to bet games that are this heavily favored since there is too much risk, but this is almost automatic and I need to keep up with the S&P 500.

Bets

$20 BOS +110

$28 COL -140

$32 SF -320

First Win

That was an easy $44 last night, with the Rockies easily winning 11-1. Here's the updated financial situation. Remember, this is not real money, just a simulation to see how much I can outgain the stock market.

Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 893 (-3% return)

Today's Picks

Two late game's look good tonight, San Francisco (-130) @ Oakland (+110) and Colorado (+100) @ LA Angels (-120).

Tim Lincecum is going up against the rookie Vin Mazzaro for the second time this year. The Giants won with Lincecum throwing a complete game shutout a couple weeks ago. Lincecum is the best pitcher in all of baseball in my opinion, with 3 plus pitches he can throw at any time. He's a high strikeout pitcher that gets a good amount of goundballs, pretty rare. Mazzaro is a good prospect that has shown he is hard to hit. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has decent control. This is right up Lincecum's alley with Oakland being a poor hitting team and their ballpark being a pitcher's park. The Giants should win a low scoring affair tonight with Lincecum possibly throwing another gem.

Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against another rookie Sean O'Sullivan in the second game. Jimenez is a heavy ground ball pitcher that throws hard. He's not really a strikeout pitcher, but if his stuff is good, he can miss some bats. O'Sullivan is a decent prospect that has pretty good control for a youngster. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has shown good K/BB ratio's in the past. He has struggled in the minors this year going 6-4 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while splitting time in AA and AAA. The Rockies are on fire lately and should jump on the righty O'Sullivan early with their lefty dominant lineup.

I like the veterans, if you can call Lincecum and Jimenez veterans, to previal against the good prospects in both games. I like the Rockies hitting and the Athletics lack of hitting.

Bets

$39 SF -130
$30 COL +100