S&P 500: $1331 (44.5% return)
Today's Games
Milwaukee (+190) @ Philadelphia (-210)
Cleveland (-110) @ Kansas City (-100)
In the first game Chris Narveson is matched up against Cliff Lee. Narveson is off to a great start at 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA, but luck has factored in a little bit. His hit rate is down about 2 hits per game from his career average and he has not given up a home run yet. On the flip side, his strikeouts are up, and that's one of the reasons why his luck is better. His ERA should be higher than 1.45, but it shouldn't be too much higher. Narveson is a finesse lefty who strikes people out with his change up and slow curve ball. His high strikeout rate tells me his stuff is pretty good, and for a pitcher like him it's all about feel. Lee has gotten off to a pretty good start himself, but you wouldn't know by seeing his 2-1 record with a 4.19 ERA. He was excellent in his first and third start, striking out 10+ in each, but was rocked in his second start. His first and third starts were against weak lineups, Houston and Washington, and his second start was against a strong lineup in Atlanta. He has not been walking anyone like usual and his strikeouts are through the roof, but when he does struggle it's because he gives up a lot of hits since all of his balls are in the strike zone. The Brewers can really hit the ball and I think they will score a few runs off Lee. I like the value in the Brewers here.
In the second game the red hot Justin Masterson is matched up against former number one pick Luke Hochevar. Masterson and the Indians have come out the gates blazing. Masterson has benefited from a low hit rate, but what has really impressed me is his walk rate. It's down to 1.8 BB/9 from his career average of 3.8. With his stuff, if he can keep that under 2.5 then he will be a legitimate front line starter. Hochevar has gotten off to a good start at 2-1 with a 4.21 ERA, but has been the victim of bad luck. He has given up 6 long balls in 4 starts so his ERA should probably be lower. His walk rate is minuscule and has always been his strength in the minors. His strikeouts are down a little, but they should rebound and he should finally become the starter the Royals expected when they drafted him first overall 5 years ago. For this game, I favor the Indians as they are the hotter team and have the better bullpen since it may come down to that.
Bets
$10 MIL +190
$11 CLE -110
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