S&P 500 Up 2.5%

Looks like the S&P 500 is making a run during the All-Star break by gaining $22 yesterday. Here's a chart to see how my portfolio has compared to the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $901 (-2.2% return)

Harang Gets Blasted

I was way off on my prediction of the Reds vs. Mets game yesterday and it cost me $22. Harang lasted only 3 innings while Pelfrey pitched 7 solid. I'm still beating the S&P 500 pretty good.

Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $879 (-4.6% return)

Today's Games

None.

There are no games until Thursday due to the All-Star break.

No Bets Yesterday

Good thing I backed off the games that I originally liked as both lost.

Portfolio: $1040 (12.9% return)
S&P 500: $879 (-4.6% return)

Today's Game

Cincinnati (-110) @ NY Mets (-100)

In the only game I like to today Aaron Harang is matched up against Mike Pelfrey. The Reds ace is 5-8 with a 3.89 ERA. His strikeout rate of 7.7 K/9 is down from his 2006-2007 average of 8.4 K/9, but in his last 4 starts it looks like he is getting that back by striking out 25 in 24 1/3 innings. His low walk rate of 2.11 BB/9 is consistent from the last 5 years, but his hit rate is a little up due to a decrease in ground balls. He gives up the long ball, but not at a higher rate than the last 5 years. The long ball should not be a big factor as the Mets have hit the least amount of home runs in the majors. So other than the decrease in ground balls it looks like he is getting back to his 06-07 form, which were the best years of his career. Pelfrey is an average ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout many, as shown by his 4.61 K/9 rate. He doesn't walk many with 3.34 BB/9, but that is up from his 2.87 BB/9 rate last year and has struggled to find the strike zone in his last 2 starts. His hit rate of 10.31 H/9 is probably a little higher than it should be given that his ground ball rate is up. It looks like Harang is starting to pitch like he did in 06-07 and I look for him to pitch solid today and pickup the win and the series for the Reds.

Bets

$22 CIN -110

Another Win

The Phillies held on 3-2 last night to bring my portfolio up $20, although Lidge did a good job of making things interesting.

Portfolio: $1040 (12.9% return)
S&P 500: $879 (-4.6% return)

Today's Games

None

I actually liked 2 games today and starting writing about them but after I was doing my analysis I backed off. The games I liked were Toronto (-120) over Baltimore and Cincinnati (+130) over the Mets. The reason for backing off of both games were the increased walk rates of Ricky Romero and Johnny Cueto over their last few starts.

Rockies Win

The Rockies won 7-6 to add $20 to my portfolio. Both Hanson and Cook struggled, but the Rockies offense and bullpen were the difference.

Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $883 (-4.1% return)

Today's Game

Pittsburgh (+140) @ Philadelphia (-160)

Zach Duke is matched up against Joe Blanton in the only game I like today. The lefty Duke is a finesse ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout or walk many. His K/9 and BB/9 are normal, but his hit rate is depressed at 8.77 H/9 compared to a career average of 10.64 H/9. This will correct and is showing signs as he has given up 20 hits in his last 19 innings. Another thing that doesn't bode well for Duke is that he is inducing ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. Also, being lefty doesn't worry me against the Phillies as they have been swinging hot bats as of late. Blanton has medicore numbers at 5-4 with a 4.69 ERA, but is pitching well as of late. His K/9 rate is the highest of his career, and this is probably due to the switch to the National League. His H/9 and BB/9 are right along his career averages, but his ground ball rate is down. This is a problem in a homerun happy Philly ballpark, and he allowed a lot of homeruns early in the year. He has recently let up on the homeruns, allowing 2 in his last 19 1/3 innings, and the Pirates have hit the second least homeruns in the majors. So I'm not too worried about homeruns by the Pirates in this game. The Phillies have been playing well as of late and the Pirates have been the opposite. I generally dont' like to bet on games with this heavy of a favorite, but I think the Phillies are a pretty good bet to win.

Bets

$32 PHI -160

Best Bet Was No Bet

Good thing I backed off the 2 games that popped out yesterday. The Diamondbacks look to be heating up and the Royals couldn't hit the rookie left hander even though Greinke pitched solid.

Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $880 (-4.5% return)

Today's Game

Atlanta (+110) @ Colorado (-130)

Today's game has undefeated rookie Tommy Hanson going up against Aaron Cook. Hanson is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA to start off his career, but I believe he is in for his first loss tonight. He has not been striking out batters anywhere near the rate he did in the minors, and his hit rate is pretty low and should begin to tick up. He seems to have found his control in his last 2 starts, after walking 15 in his first 23 innings, but the Rockies are a patient team and will make him work. Aaron Cook has been pitching really good as of late, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 starts. His strikeout rate, walk rate, hit rate, and groundball rate are all normal. Cook struggled early in the season, walking more batters than normal and giving up an unusual amount of home runs, but he has corrected those and has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball lately. Look for Cook pitch solid and Hanson to last no more than 6 innings.

Bet

$26 COL -130

Padres Lose - Down $20

The Diamonbacks pulled out the 4-3 victory with both pitchers pitching well. Correira pitched like he has all season, and Davis continued to strand runners at a high rate by only allowing 2 runs even though he allowed 12 baserunners. The S&P continued it's poor run as of late, so at least it didn't gain on me. I passed on betting against Gallardo last night and it hurt me. He was wild, walking 5 in 5 innings while allowing 4 ER in a loss. He's a good pitcher, he just needs to work on his control.

Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $881 (-4.3% return)

Today's Games

None.

Check back as a may change my mind. Two games jumped out at first, but after looking into them I changed my mind. The Padres jumped out again at +160 with Chad Gaudin facing Max Scherzer and the Diamondbacks. The reason I backed away from this is that the Diamondbacks seem to be hitting their stride lately. Both Gaudin and Scherzer are inconsistent, so it's odd for the Diamondbacks to be favored by that much (-180). The other game that jumped out was Kansas City (-135) @ Detroit (+115). Greinke, who has 2 complete game wins against Detroit this year, is facing rookie Luke French. The Royals should be favored by more, but their offense is anemic and the fact that they are facing a lefty for the first time can be trouble. I'm staying away from this one.

Back

I was out of town for the 4th and did not follow baseball at all. Here's the updated financial situation.

Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $899 (-2.4% return)

Today's Game

San Diego (+140) @ Arizona (-160)

Kevin Correia is matched up against Doug Davis in the only game I like today. Correia was roughed up in his last start giving up 6 ER in 5 innings, but his in his previous 5 starts he went 4-1 while giving up 2 ER or less 4 times. His strikeout, walk, and hit rates all look normal but it seems like he is having problems leaving runners on base. His ground ball rate is the best of his career, so his 4.58 ERA should be a little lower. Doug Davis has had some back luck in only going 3-8 with with a 3.15 ERA, but he has gotten lucky in terms of hit rate. His hit rate of 8.18 is way below his career average of 9.35, and his ground ball rate is the lowest of his career. Davis also seems the be leaving a lot of runners on base. Given his low hit rate and high strand rate, his ERA should start to rise and wins will be even harder to come by. At +140, I like the Padres in a battle between 2 bad teams.

Bets

$20 SD +140

No Games Today

Ended up gaining $14 last night. I was wrong about Gallardo again as he was dominant, but good thing Pelfrey was even better. And the bad luck continued for Hamels. I don't like any game's on this slow Thursday.

Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $923 (0.2% return)

2-1, Up $13

I was able to gain a little even though the Red Sox blew a 10-1 lead, Scott Baker labored through 5, and Albert Pujols hit 2 homeruns.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)

Today’s Games

New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)

The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.

The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.

Bets

$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110

I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.