Bad Start

Wow, a poor 0-2 yesterday to bring my portfolio down $54. Although both games were losses, I still think they were solid plays. The Phillies/Rays game was a pitching duel up until the bottom of the 8th when the Phillies bullpen let up 5 runs to blow it open. And Dan Haren once again is the tough luck loser in a 2-1 game. It's hard to see his luck not turning around soon. He's pitching great.

I'm going to make a change to my portfolio with the beginning value being 921, the same as the S&P 500 when I started earlier this week, so it will be easier to compare the two. Also, I might post my picks, if there are any, all the way up until 7:00 pm EST.

Portfolio: 911 (-1.1% return)
S&P 500: 901 (-2.2% return)

Todays Game

St. Louis (-130) @ NY Mets (+110)

Chris Carpenter is matched up against Johan Santana in what should be a piching duel. I like Santana as the underdog at home and should not have to do any analysis, but I'll give you some. After a dip in strikeout rate in 2008, Santana has regained his level from the previous 5 years. His 2008 rate was 7.91 K/9 and this year it's at 9.77 K/9. His walk rate has continued a steady 5 year climb, but it's still pretty good at 2.72 BB/9. Carpenter has been pitching great this year, but he still hasn't found his skills from 2006, his last healthy season. His K/9 rate is 6.6 compared to 7.6 from 2004-2006. He has kept is pinpoint control, but the main factor to his great start after missing 2 seasons is his low hit rate. He's giving up 36% less hits per 9 than he did in 2004-2006. His low hit rate is unsustainable and will start to tick up.

Bets

20 NYM +110