Santana Outduels Carpenter

The Mets won 3-2 yesterday, gaining $22 for my portfolio. The S&P 500 also gained 20, so I'm just staying ahead of pace. It was a pitcher's duel yesterday with Santana getting out of a couple jams and Carpenter having one bad inning.

Portfolio: 933 (1.3% return)
S&P 500: 920 (-0.1% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
San Francisco (+130) @ Milwaukee (-150)

There are some pretty good pitching matchups today, and a handful of games I like, but I've narrowed it down to my two top picks. The first game has Gil Meche going up agianst Charlie Morton. Meche got rocked his last start after coming off a complete game shutout, and was really solid in his previous 6 starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in each of those starts. Meche is a solid veteran who should bounce back tonight against a Pirates team who is sending out rookie Charlie Morton. Morton is nothing special as his ERA last year was 6.19 in 74 innings and has only had one good minor league season (2008). At -110, I think Kansas City is hard to pass up. Losing the DH should be no big deal as KC can't hit anyway, but should score a few runs off the rookie Morton.

The second game has Matt Cain matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Both have been pitching really well this year and both teams have been playing solid. Cain is off to a 9-1 start with a 2.28 ERA and his skill set is basically the same this year as it was the last two years when he went a combined 15-30. His K/9 rate, BB/9, and H/9 are almost indentical. His strand rate (leading to lower ERA) is a little better than years past and he's getting more (normal) run support. Those are both kind of luck stats, but he was due for a change in luck after suffering through some of the worst luck the last two years. Gallardo has gotten off to a good start, going 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA. He is a dominant strikeout pitcher, avergaing 9.3 K/9, but has had a control problem as of late, averaging 6.1 BB/9 in his last 4 starts. Gallardo's hit rate is also a little depressed compared to his brief history and the major league average, and should correct. The lack of control bodes well for the Giants and Cain. Look for Gallardo to last no more than 6 innings tonight, and Cain to pitch solid.

There are a couple more games that I might add later in the day as I look at the games more.

Bets

$22 KC -110
$20 SF +130