The Marlins won me $28 as Josh Johnson pitched pretty well and Clayton Kershaw came back to earth a little bit.
Portfolio: $959 (4.1% return)
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)
Today's Games
None
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Friday, July 24, 2009
S&P 500 Gaining
The S&P 500 gained $22 yesterday to distance itself from my portfolio.
Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $976 (6% return)
Today’s Game
Florida (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
In the game I like today Josh Johnson is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Johnson is having a great year after missing most of the last two years due to injury. His 8-2 record and 2.74 ERA look legit. He strikes out his fair share at 7.66 K/9 and doesn’t walk too many at 2.46 BB/9. He is also a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t give up the long ball. Kershaw is having a really good season too with an 8-5 record and a 2.95 ERA, but it doesn’t look to stay that way. He strikes out a decent amount at 8.77 K/9, but he walks way too many at 5.06 BB/9. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, but doesn’t give up the long ball. He has really benefitted from an extremely low hit rate, especially in his last 3 starts where he went 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA. He has really good stuff, and his hit rate will tend to be lower than normal because of that and the fact that he is effectively wild, but his 5.91 H/9 rate is unsustainable. Once he learns how to throw more strikes he should be dominant, but he’s not there yet. Both teams are playing well and are coming off sweeps. At +140, I think the Marlins are a good value play with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$20 FLA +140
Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $976 (6% return)
Today’s Game
Florida (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
In the game I like today Josh Johnson is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Johnson is having a great year after missing most of the last two years due to injury. His 8-2 record and 2.74 ERA look legit. He strikes out his fair share at 7.66 K/9 and doesn’t walk too many at 2.46 BB/9. He is also a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t give up the long ball. Kershaw is having a really good season too with an 8-5 record and a 2.95 ERA, but it doesn’t look to stay that way. He strikes out a decent amount at 8.77 K/9, but he walks way too many at 5.06 BB/9. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, but doesn’t give up the long ball. He has really benefitted from an extremely low hit rate, especially in his last 3 starts where he went 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA. He has really good stuff, and his hit rate will tend to be lower than normal because of that and the fact that he is effectively wild, but his 5.91 H/9 rate is unsustainable. Once he learns how to throw more strikes he should be dominant, but he’s not there yet. Both teams are playing well and are coming off sweeps. At +140, I think the Marlins are a good value play with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$20 FLA +140
Thursday, July 23, 2009
It's Getting Ugly, Giants Lose 4-2
The Giants offense only managed to score 2 runs and Lincecum didn't pitch too well, although he did strikeout 9 in 5 innings. Dropping $44 almost brings my portfolio back to even and below the S&P 500.
Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $954 (3.6% return)
Today's Games
None
I'm taking a day off due to my losing habits lately.
Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $954 (3.6% return)
Today's Games
None
I'm taking a day off due to my losing habits lately.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
On A Cold Streak, Red Sox Lose Again
Beckett pitched well enough to win, but the Red Sox offense continued to slump. It’s been a rough few days, but my gains are still positive and I’m beating the S&P 500 by 2.2%.
Portfolio: $975 (5.9% return)
S&P 500: $955 (3.7% return)
Today’s Game
San Francisco (-110) @ Atlanta (-120)
Tim Lincecum is going up against Jair Jurrjens in a matchup of two good, young pitchers. If you have read previous posts or look at past analysis, I am pretty high on Lincecum. I bet on him last game at -150 and lost, and I said that we would probably never see a better line for him the rest of the season. Well, the Giants have been slumping lately, especially their offense while losing 5 of 6. This has set up a perfect situation to bet on. Lincecum should put up a pretty solid start against an average Braves offense in a pitchers ballpark, so the Giants won’t need much runs to win. Jurrjens has been pitching pretty well lately, but it doesn’t look like he can keep up it up. His 2.77 ERA is low considering that his strikeouts are down, walks are up, and ground balls are down. He is benefitting by a low hit rate and high runners stranded rate, both of which are mainly luck. Look for the Giants offense to wake up and score a handful of runs in an easy win.
Bets
$44 SF -110
Portfolio: $975 (5.9% return)
S&P 500: $955 (3.7% return)
Today’s Game
San Francisco (-110) @ Atlanta (-120)
Tim Lincecum is going up against Jair Jurrjens in a matchup of two good, young pitchers. If you have read previous posts or look at past analysis, I am pretty high on Lincecum. I bet on him last game at -150 and lost, and I said that we would probably never see a better line for him the rest of the season. Well, the Giants have been slumping lately, especially their offense while losing 5 of 6. This has set up a perfect situation to bet on. Lincecum should put up a pretty solid start against an average Braves offense in a pitchers ballpark, so the Giants won’t need much runs to win. Jurrjens has been pitching pretty well lately, but it doesn’t look like he can keep up it up. His 2.77 ERA is low considering that his strikeouts are down, walks are up, and ground balls are down. He is benefitting by a low hit rate and high runners stranded rate, both of which are mainly luck. Look for the Giants offense to wake up and score a handful of runs in an easy win.
Bets
$44 SF -110
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Dropped Both
It’s never good when you go 0-fer. The S&P 500 also made a little gain to top off a bad night.
Portfolio: $1007 (9.3% return)
S&P 500: $951 (3.3% return)
Today’s Game
Boston (-160) @ Texas (+140)
In today’s game Josh Beckett is matched up against Tommy Hunter. Beckett is having a solid season with an 11-3 record and a 3.35 ERA. He has started to get more ground balls and his hit rate has dropped because of that. He struggled with more walks than normal earlier this year, but has since corrected that and it is not a concern. He’s been on top of his game lately and I look for him to pitch well after his team lost yesterday. Hunter is a young pitcher making his 8th career start. He had a solid but not spectacular minor league career, showing good control. He strikeout rates were average and it doesn’t look like he’s either a heavy ground ball or fly ball pitcher. Either way, the veteran Red Sox lineup will make him work and this should be an easy win for the Sox with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$32 BOS -160
Portfolio: $1007 (9.3% return)
S&P 500: $951 (3.3% return)
Today’s Game
Boston (-160) @ Texas (+140)
In today’s game Josh Beckett is matched up against Tommy Hunter. Beckett is having a solid season with an 11-3 record and a 3.35 ERA. He has started to get more ground balls and his hit rate has dropped because of that. He struggled with more walks than normal earlier this year, but has since corrected that and it is not a concern. He’s been on top of his game lately and I look for him to pitch well after his team lost yesterday. Hunter is a young pitcher making his 8th career start. He had a solid but not spectacular minor league career, showing good control. He strikeout rates were average and it doesn’t look like he’s either a heavy ground ball or fly ball pitcher. Either way, the veteran Red Sox lineup will make him work and this should be an easy win for the Sox with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$32 BOS -160
Monday, July 20, 2009
Giants Finally Win Low Scoring Affair
Matt Cain and Zach Duke both pitched well, but Cain was a little better and the Giants offense finally decided to score a little. I won $20.
Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)
The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.
The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.
Bets
$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110
Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)
The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.
The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.
Bets
$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Phillies/Marlins Postponed
My bet was void last night due to the game being postponed.
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
San Francisco (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-100)
In the one game I like today Matt Cain is matched up against Zach Duke. Cain is a solid pitcher who's strikeout, walk, hit, and ground ball rates are all normal. He is a fly ball pitcher who benefits from playing in San Francisco, but PNC should be good to him also as it is big pitchers park. His ERA of 2.38 is a little low and that is due to him leaving a higher than normal percentage of runners on base. The lefty Duke is an average ground ball pitcher who's been benefiting from a low hit rate. This is odd since he's getting ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. The Pirates defense is better than years past, but not good enough to save him 2 hits per nine. His strikeout and walk rate are right on career averages. Pittsburgh is going for the sweep against a veteran Giants team that has scored 1 run in the last 23 innings. The Pirates offense has not been much better, scoring 4 runs in that time. Both pitchers ERA are better than they should be, but I think Cain's is more sustainable. This could be another low scoring affair, but I think the Giants will prevail this time as they don't want to get swept. I have nothing against Zach Duke as it seems I bet against him a lot, but he is pitching over his head and the lines do not reflect that.
Bets
$22 SF -110
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
San Francisco (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-100)
In the one game I like today Matt Cain is matched up against Zach Duke. Cain is a solid pitcher who's strikeout, walk, hit, and ground ball rates are all normal. He is a fly ball pitcher who benefits from playing in San Francisco, but PNC should be good to him also as it is big pitchers park. His ERA of 2.38 is a little low and that is due to him leaving a higher than normal percentage of runners on base. The lefty Duke is an average ground ball pitcher who's been benefiting from a low hit rate. This is odd since he's getting ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. The Pirates defense is better than years past, but not good enough to save him 2 hits per nine. His strikeout and walk rate are right on career averages. Pittsburgh is going for the sweep against a veteran Giants team that has scored 1 run in the last 23 innings. The Pirates offense has not been much better, scoring 4 runs in that time. Both pitchers ERA are better than they should be, but I think Cain's is more sustainable. This could be another low scoring affair, but I think the Giants will prevail this time as they don't want to get swept. I have nothing against Zach Duke as it seems I bet against him a lot, but he is pitching over his head and the lines do not reflect that.
Bets
$22 SF -110
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Giants Lose 2-1 in 14
I was right about the Pirates not scoring many runs, but the Giants offense was even worse. Their only run came off a Pittsburgh error. At -150, I still think that was one of the better bets I've seen lately. I'm not sure how many times we'll get better than -150 on Lincecum the rest of the year.
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
Philadelphia (+110) @ Florida (-120)
In the only game I like today Joe Blanton is matched up against Josh Johnson. The strikeout and walk rates of both pitcher's are the basically the same. The main difference between the two is that Johnson has a little better stuff and gets more ground balls. Both have also been pitching well as of late, and their rates look pretty normal. The Phillies have a better offense and defense, and that is why I like them at +110.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
Philadelphia (+110) @ Florida (-120)
In the only game I like today Joe Blanton is matched up against Josh Johnson. The strikeout and walk rates of both pitcher's are the basically the same. The main difference between the two is that Johnson has a little better stuff and gets more ground balls. Both have also been pitching well as of late, and their rates look pretty normal. The Phillies have a better offense and defense, and that is why I like them at +110.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
Friday, July 17, 2009
Pretty Good Night
I hit both games yesterday to bring my portfolio up $58.
Portfolio: $1076 (16.8% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
San Francisco (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Paul Maholm in what should be a win for the Giants. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion and at -150 I think this is a great bet. I do not know why the line is so low since he is facing a below average hitting team. My guess is because he struggled a little in the All-Star game and that was only 3 days ago. But Lincecum is a dominant strikeout pitcher who happens to be on top of his game. He doesn't walk too many and gets ground balls. Maholm is a finesse lefty who doesn't strikeout or walk many. He is a ground ball pitcher, but this year he is getting around 20% fewer ground balls. In Lincecum's last 3 starts he is 3-0 with a 1.19 and 25 K's in 22 2/3 innings. Maholm is 2-0 with a 5.19 ERA and 5 K's in 17 1/3 innings. I don't think the Pirates will be scoring too many runs tonight. At -150 I think this is a steal.
Bets
$45 SF -150
Portfolio: $1076 (16.8% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
San Francisco (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Paul Maholm in what should be a win for the Giants. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion and at -150 I think this is a great bet. I do not know why the line is so low since he is facing a below average hitting team. My guess is because he struggled a little in the All-Star game and that was only 3 days ago. But Lincecum is a dominant strikeout pitcher who happens to be on top of his game. He doesn't walk too many and gets ground balls. Maholm is a finesse lefty who doesn't strikeout or walk many. He is a ground ball pitcher, but this year he is getting around 20% fewer ground balls. In Lincecum's last 3 starts he is 3-0 with a 1.19 and 25 K's in 22 2/3 innings. Maholm is 2-0 with a 5.19 ERA and 5 K's in 17 1/3 innings. I don't think the Pirates will be scoring too many runs tonight. At -150 I think this is a steal.
Bets
$45 SF -150
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Games Start Back Up Today
The S&P 500 continued to makes its run during the All-Star break.
Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $931 (1.1% return)
Today's Games
Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Washington Nationals (+110)
Houston (+140) @ LA Dodgers (-150)
Rich Harden is matched up against John Lannan in the first game I like tonight. Harden strikes out a lot of batters, but also walks his fair share. He is striking out batters at a high rate of 10.09 K/9 this year, and that is up a little from his career average but down a little from last year. He is walking a little more batters this year, but his last 3 starts are right in line with his career average. The one thing that has hurt Harden this year is his hit rate. He is giving up 9.49 H/9, and 15.43 H/9 over his last 3 starts. His career average is 7.33, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is right on his career average. Harden has also been hurt by the long ball, giving up way more than his average. Good thing for him that Washington is one of the worst home run hitting ballparks in the majors and the Nationals are a below average home run hitting team. All those indicators tell me that Harden is the victim of bad luck and his numbers should start to turn around. Lannan is a lefty that gets a lot of ground balls. He does not strikeout many, and his strikeout rate of 4.02 K/9 is way down from last years rate of 5.79 K/9. Over his last 3 starts his rate is even worse at 2.22 K/9. He doesn't walk many and has shown good control over his last 3 starts. His hits are up a little, but his ground ball rate is down a little. I think the right handed heavy Cubs at -120 are a pretty good play here.
In the second game, Wandy Rodriguez is going up against Randy Wolf. Both lefties have put together solid seasons, with Rodriguez breaking out and Wolf reemerging. Rodriguez’s strikeout, walk, and hit rates are basically the same as last years, and he has really improved his ground ball rate. His rates indicate he’s a solid pitcher, and he is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wolf has also been pitching well as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. His strikeout rate is little down a little from his career average, but so is his walk rate. The one thing that has helped him out this year is his hit rate. It’s at 7.93 for the year compared to his career average of 8.71. He hasn’t had a hit rate under 8 since 2003, and his current rate is probably unsustainable due to the fact that his ground ball rate is right on his career average. The Astros have been struggling to score runs this year while the Dodgers have the second best offense in the National League. Even with that being said, I think the Astros at +140 are a solid play with Rodriguez pitching.
Bets
$36 CHC -120
$20 HOU +140
I will be on the road all day tomorrow so if I post it'll probably be right before game time.
Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $931 (1.1% return)
Today's Games
Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Washington Nationals (+110)
Houston (+140) @ LA Dodgers (-150)
Rich Harden is matched up against John Lannan in the first game I like tonight. Harden strikes out a lot of batters, but also walks his fair share. He is striking out batters at a high rate of 10.09 K/9 this year, and that is up a little from his career average but down a little from last year. He is walking a little more batters this year, but his last 3 starts are right in line with his career average. The one thing that has hurt Harden this year is his hit rate. He is giving up 9.49 H/9, and 15.43 H/9 over his last 3 starts. His career average is 7.33, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is right on his career average. Harden has also been hurt by the long ball, giving up way more than his average. Good thing for him that Washington is one of the worst home run hitting ballparks in the majors and the Nationals are a below average home run hitting team. All those indicators tell me that Harden is the victim of bad luck and his numbers should start to turn around. Lannan is a lefty that gets a lot of ground balls. He does not strikeout many, and his strikeout rate of 4.02 K/9 is way down from last years rate of 5.79 K/9. Over his last 3 starts his rate is even worse at 2.22 K/9. He doesn't walk many and has shown good control over his last 3 starts. His hits are up a little, but his ground ball rate is down a little. I think the right handed heavy Cubs at -120 are a pretty good play here.
In the second game, Wandy Rodriguez is going up against Randy Wolf. Both lefties have put together solid seasons, with Rodriguez breaking out and Wolf reemerging. Rodriguez’s strikeout, walk, and hit rates are basically the same as last years, and he has really improved his ground ball rate. His rates indicate he’s a solid pitcher, and he is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wolf has also been pitching well as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. His strikeout rate is little down a little from his career average, but so is his walk rate. The one thing that has helped him out this year is his hit rate. It’s at 7.93 for the year compared to his career average of 8.71. He hasn’t had a hit rate under 8 since 2003, and his current rate is probably unsustainable due to the fact that his ground ball rate is right on his career average. The Astros have been struggling to score runs this year while the Dodgers have the second best offense in the National League. Even with that being said, I think the Astros at +140 are a solid play with Rodriguez pitching.
Bets
$36 CHC -120
$20 HOU +140
I will be on the road all day tomorrow so if I post it'll probably be right before game time.
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