No Action Yesterday

I didn't get around to updating my blog yesterday, but I was not going to pick any games anyway since I'm on a cold streak. I can't seem to get one break, but that's how it goes in sports betting. You just have to stay consistent and not loose your cool and things will eventually turn around. I'm staying away from baseball today as I have missed all my postseason picks so far, but there should be some good games today.

Portfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)

S&P 500: $1071 (16.3% return)

Today's Games

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-6)

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9)

The Browns are not as bad you think and they seem to be playing with more enthusiasm now that they have their better QB starting. The Browns also have one of the better special teams and Buffalo has one of the worst coverage units. I look for the Browns to pull this one out and Trent Edwards to get benched, so I'll take the 6 points.

Cincinnati and Baltimore have the same record but for some reason the Ravens are favored by 9 at home. They are not that much better than the Bengals and the Bengals defense has been really solid this year. Flacco is not at an elite level and I look for him to struggle a little today. The Bengals are playing with a pride this year and even if they lose I do not think it will be by more than 9 points.

Bets

$11 CLE +6

$11 CIN +9

Red Sox Lose – Down $22

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)

Today’s Games

Minnesota (+260) @ New York Yankees (-310)
Boston (-100) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)

In the first game Nick Blackburn is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Blackburn has been really solid lately as he has had pinpoint control, walking only 1 in his last 27 1/3 innings. He will not strikeout many,( 4.29 K/9) gives up more than a hit per inning and is a fly ball pitcher that gives up home runs. But he has been really effective as of late as he has upped his K’s a good amount and has only had one bad start in his last nine. Burnett is an erratic pitcher that has been throwing well lately, although he doesn’t hesitate to give out the free pass. I have a feeling that Blackburn will frustrate the veteran Yankee lineup as he seems to be hitting his spots. I am not that worried that this is his first postseason game because the Twins have been playing like they have been in the postseason for the past month. The Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball and I think they will rally back and make a good series. Blackburn is coming off a start in which he outdueled Zack Greinke, the probable American League CY Young winner, in a must win game. This is a good value play.

In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Jered Weaver. Beckett’s indicators aren’t the best lately as his hits and walks are up a little, but his strikeouts are there. Weaver has been throwing well lately and his indicators are right in line with his season averages. Beckett is a proven big game pitcher and I don’t think he’ll let his team go down 0-2.

Bets

$10 MIN +260
$20 BOS -100

Rough Day, 0-2 and Down $50

My free fall continues, but things will turn around.

Portfolio: $956 (3.8% return)

S&P 500: $1058 (14.9% return)

Today's Games

Boston (-110) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)

In the only game I like today Jon Lester is matched up against John Lackey. Lester is probably the best left handed starter in the playoffs and he has been dominant in the second half on the season. He has had one bad start in the last 2 months and his indicators are really strong. Lackey is a solid veteran pitcher who has struggled lately. His hit rate is up and it has been slightly up all year which means he may be losing a little, but not too much to get worried. I like Boston to take game 1 as Lester is the more stable option.

Bets

$22 BOS

Great Game Last Night

The Tigers/Twins game last night was one of the better baseball games I’ve seen in a while and that got me pumped up for the playoffs.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)

Today’s Games

Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)

In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.

In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.

Bets

$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150

No Action Yesterday

It should be an interesting one game playoff today between the Tigers and Twins. I think the game can go either way even though the Twins are -170 favorites. Porcello has struggled in the Metrodome as most ground ball pitchers do, but Baker has also struggled against the Tigers with the exception of his last start on Thursday. Baker also has been walking too many batters lately and that's his strength. I'd say this game is a coin flip.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)

S&P 500: $1040 (12.9 % return)

Today's Games

None

1-2, Down $23

I’m not off to a good start betting on the NFL, going 1-3 so far. I should stick to my theory of no team is as good or as bad as you think.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today’s Games

None

Royals Lose

Blackburn out dueled Greinke and the Twins are now tied with the Tigers for first in the American League Central. Greinke looked to be on his way to a dominant complete game performance but he fell apart in the 6th. My portfolio takes another hit as the end of the regular baseball season is taking it's toll on me.

I am starting my football analysis this week but that will take at least a few weeks to see if there are any findings. I have an idea to see if I can find statistical indicators like I do in baseball.

Portfolio: $1029 (11.7% return)

S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today's Games

Detroit @ Chicago (-10)

Tampa Bay @ Washington (-7.5)

Buffalo @ Miami (-1)

The Lions are coming off their first win in over a year, but they are still a pretty bad team that struggles to move the ball and stop the ball. Chicago should put them back in their place this week.

Tampa Bay is starting second year quarterback Josh Johnson for the first time and he should really struggle against a solid defense. Washington's offense has been able to move the ball this year but have failed to get in the end zone consistently.

Buffalo is a decent team that should start to find ways to score. They have a solid defense and Miami should be pretty weak offensively today with Chad Henne at quarterback.

Bets

$11 CHI -10

$22 WAS -7.5

$11 BUF -1

No Action Yesterday

It was an interesting day in baseball yesterday as the Tigers and Dodgers couldn't wrap up their divisions. The Dodgers are already in the playoffs and are just looking to get home field advantage, so it's not that big of a deal for them. The Tigers on the other hand might be a little nervous now as their lead is only 1 game with 2 to go, but they have to like the fact that the Twins are facing Zack Greinke who is determined to lock up the CY Young. It will be interesting.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5 % return)

S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (-130) @ Minnesota (+120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Nick Blackburn. Greinke is out to prove he's the best pitcher in the American League and help eliminate the Twins from the post season. Greinke has been dominant as of late and basically the whole season. His walks are a little up recently, but his other indicators are strong. Blackburn is pitching in the biggest game of his career and has been on top of his game lately, going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is a typical Twins pitcher as he pitches to contact, walks very few, and is not a ground ball pitcher although he does get a few more ground balls than fly balls. There is no significant variances in his indicators lately, and the fact that he hasn't been letting up runs tells me he's due to start giving up some. I believe this will be a low scoring affair and Greinke will try to go the distance in his last start of the season.

Bet

$26 KC -130

No Action Yesterday

I most likely will not be betting on any baseball games the rest of the regular season, but you can bet that I will be betting on the playoffs. I'll take a look at the Zack Greinke matchup tomorrow as he is trying to lock up the CY Young. I doubt I’ll have any college football games, but check back on Sunday to see NFL picks.

An interesting stat: Tim Lincecum did not allow a home run at home this season, a span of 124.1 innings pitched. He is just insane.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1030 (11.8% return)

Today’s Games

None

Detroit Beats Tigers 7-2

Carl Pavano got roughed up for the first time this year against the Tigers while Eddie Bonine's luck continued. Bonine should have given up more than 2 runs in 5 innings considering he allowed 9 base runners. But once again this is why it's tough to bet at the end of the season. You almost have to treat it like college football and go with momentum as stats don't matter as much. Through this little cold streak my portfolio has dipped below the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5% return)

S&P 500: $ 1057 (14.8% return)

Today's Games

None