No Action Yesterday

I ended up losing a little last week, but nothing too big. I have been liking favorites lately as usually teams in the race try a little harder this time of year.

Portfolio: $1039 (12.8% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)

Today's Games

Atlanta (+140) @ Florida (-150)

If you checked earlier I said there were no games today, but I've changed my mind. In the only game I like today Kenshin Kawakami is matched up against Josh Johnson. Kawakami has been average this year and is on the verge of losing his spot in the rotation with the return of Tim Hudson. He doesn't strike out too many and walks a little more than the average. By looking at his numbers it doesn't look like he's really good or bad at anything. His strikeouts are down lately and he has struggled away from home. Johnson is having a really good season and has liked pitching at home. He has struggled a little but lately, but that's due to giving up a few home runs, which he usually doesn't do. His K's are there and he has continued to show great control. I like the Marlins, who roughed up Kawakami a month ago.

Bets

$15 FLA -150

Phillies Get Hammered, Lose $38

You win some, you lose some. On the positive side at least I'm up $2 the last 2 days.

Portfolio: $1039 (12.8% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)

Today's Games

None

Solid 3-0, Up $40

I kinda got lucky with the Yankees and Cardinals pulling it out, but all of my pitching predictions were correct. Lincecum was dominant and I was hoping he'd go out there for the 9th even after throwing 127 pitches. I think pitch count is way overrated, and it's nice to see the Giants as they don't put much stock into it.

Portfolio: $1077 (16.9% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)

Today's Game

Atlanta (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)

In the only game I like today Derek Lowe is matched up against Cliff Lee. You can see my analysis of Lowe from 8/23. Not much has changed and I believe his best days are behind him. Lee on the other hand is in CY Young form and has almost been unhittable since joining the Phillies. His indicators as of late are right on last years and he has upped his K rate. While Lee can't keep up his sub 1.00 ERA, he should still pitch solid enough to get the win as the Phiilies should be able to score off Lowe early and often.

Bet

$38 PHI -190

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)

Today’s Games

Chicago White Sox (+200) @ New York Yankees (-240)
Washington (+170) @ St. Louis (-190)
Colorado (+110) @ San Francisco (-130)

In the first game Mark Buehrle is matched up against CC Sabathia. Buehrle has struggled ever since his perfect game and has been getting hit hard lately while his K’s have dropped. Sabathia has won his last 4 starts and is in CY Young form. His pinpoint control and increased K rate are the main drivers behind that. When he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes it’s really hard to score runs off him. I look for the Yankees and CC to cruise in this one.

In the second game John Lannan is matched up against John Smoltz. Lannan has been getting absolutely tagged lately as his ERA is 12.00 over his last 3 starts, not good news facing the Cardinals. Smoltz is coming off his only decent start this year, and should have the confidence he lacked earlier in the season with the Red Sox. I’ve been saying all along that he still has some left in the tank, and if you type in “Smoltz” in the search on the top left corner of the page you can see my past analysis of him. His K and BB rates are right in line with his last 2 healthy seasons. I like the Cardinals to win easily.

In the third game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Tim Lincecum for the second time in 5 days. Jimenez pitched great and Lincecum pitched below his standards and the Rockies won 4-2. Jimenez is on top of his game right now, but I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t be up for the challenge to get even. Lincecum has struggled with control his last 2 starts, so if he can get that fixed, which I think he will, he should be in a position to dominate. This is a true test for both starters in another huge series, and Lincecum will come out on top this time.

Bets

$24 NYY -240
$19 STL -190
$26 SF -130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1028 (11.6% return)

Today's Games

None

Split, Down $28

Brad Lidge’s struggles continue as he blows another game, but the Phillies should have crossed the plate more than 4 times against the Pirates. Going 1-1 and losing $28 shows the risk in betting favorites in baseball.

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1028 (11.6% return)

Today’s Games

None

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1065 (15.6% return)
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

Today’s Games

Philadelphia (-190) @ Pittsburgh (+170)
Chicago White Sox (+250) @ Boston (-300)

In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Ross Ohlendorf. Blanton is having a solid season and has a very respectable 3.25 K/BB ratio, but he has gotten into trouble when he gives up the long ball. Good thing for him that he is facing the light hitting Pirates in a pitchers ballpark. The Phillies should score enough off the soft tossing Ohlendorf for Blanton to pick up his 9th win.

In the second game Freddy Garcia is matched up against Jon Lester. Garcia is making only his second start of the season and he was roughed up pretty good in his first one. I do not see him pitching well against the potent Red Sox offense after barely pitching much of the last 3 seasons. Lester on the other hand has been pretty much lights out as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA over his last 4 starts while striking out 11 per 9 and only walking 2.33 per 9. This should be an easy one for the Red Sox. I generally don't like to bet on heavy favorite's like this, but this is such a lopsided match up.

Bets

$38 PHI -190
$30 BOS -300

Win One, Lose Two, Down $28

The Marlins game could have went either way while the Giants missed a few opportunities to add on when they were up 2-0. Can't win 'em all.

Portfolio: $1065 (15.6% return)
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)


Today’s Games

None

Yankees Lose, Cardinals Win - Up $5

It's always good when you split and gain money.

Portfolio: $1093 (18.7% return)

S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

Today's Games

Florida (+120) @ Atlanta (-130)

San Francisco (+100) @ Colorado (-110)

New York Yankees (+110) @ Boston (-120)

In the first game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Derek Lowe. Nolasco struggled early in the year, was sent down to the minors for a few starts, and has been pretty good ever since he was called up. He was roughed up 2 starts ago, but has been dominant other than that over the last 2 months. His strikeout and walk rates are ace caliber, so it's really no surprise that he's turned it around. Lowe on the the other hand got off to a good start, but has struggled the last few months. It looks like his skills are deteriorating as his strikeouts have dropped, his walks have increased, and his ground ball rate has dropped which has led to a higher hit rate. He is 36 years old so he might never get his stuff back again. I look for the underdog Marlins with their potential dominant starter to take the rubber game of this big series.

In the second game Tim Lincecum is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but didn't look to impressive in his last start against the lowly Reds. Jimenez is turning into the Rockies ace and has been lights out as of late, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA over his last 3. His dominance should not continue as his walk rate is up and his hit rate is down. I look for Lincecum to bounce back and win the rubber game of this huge series.

In the third game CC Sabathia is going up against Josh Beckett in a rematch of the 2007 ALCS game 5. Sabathia has been in Cy Young form as of late and his indicators reflect that. Beckett was roughed up his last start and has been giving up the long ball lately, which is not good when facing the Yankees. After two uneven games, I looks for the Yankees and the red hot Sabathia to take this rubber game.

Bets

$20 FLA +120

$30 SF +100

$20 NYY +110

Giants Take Care Of Business

That was a pretty easy $32 last night as Aaron Cook's recent struggles continued. He left with a sore shoulder after only 47 pitches, so that could be part of the reason for his struggles. Sanchez on the other hand pitched normal by his standards. He was wild, struck out 8 and left after only 5 innings due to pitch count. If he can learn to throw more strikes before the seasons end and the Giants make the playoffs their pitching will be unstoppable.

Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)

S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

For those of you not aware, when I started my blog a couple months ago the S&P 500 was at 921, so that's what my porfolio's starting value was. As you can see, I am getting a 6.7% higher return on my money than the S&P 500 since the start of my simulation.

Today's Games

New York Yankees (-150) @ Boston (+140)

St. Louis (-210) @ San Diego (+190)

In the first game I like today the hard throwing A.J. Burnett is matched up against the rookie Junichi Tazawa. Burnett is having a decent season, although the Yankees thought they were getting a little more when they signed him this off season. His strikeouts have dropped and his walks have increased this year. He's been getting the K's lately but he is still allowing too many walks. He has had a good history against the Red Sox and was dominant in his last start against them a few weeks back. Tazawa is a contact pitcher who is making his 3rd career start and has yet to make it past the 5th inning. His stuff isn't anything special and the Yankees should have no problem scoring runs and extending their division lead this afternoon.

In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Kevin Correia. Carpenter is a top CY Young candidate who has been on top of his game lately. Corriea has been solid in his last 4 starts going 1-1 with a 2.22 ERA, but that shouldn't last. Over that time his strikeouts have dropped while his walks have increased, and he's been the beneficiary of a low hit rate. His K/BB ratio over that time is around 1, and that tells me his ERA is due for a spike. That's good news for Carpenter as the Cardinals should score enough runs for him to pick up another win and build his case for the CY Young.

Bets

$15 NYY -150

$42 STL -210