It’s nice to see the NFL season starting again. I might bet a couple games next week now that I have a little feel for the teams. The one thing to remember about the NFL is that teams are not as good or bad as you think. I generally like to bet on teams that looked horrible the week before or against media over-hyped teams. A good example of this theory was the Jets/Texans game yesterday. The Jets were starting a rookie on the road while the Texans were supposed to have a high powered offense, so the -5 line seemed a little low. I bet Vegas made a killing on that game.
Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)
Today’s Games
Cleveland (+140) @ Minnesota (-160)
Colorado (+170) @ San Francisco (-180)
In the first game Jeremy Sowers is matched up against Carl Pavano. Sowers is a soft tossing left hander who has control issues. He really is not a major league pitcher, and I have yet to figure out why the Indians continue to give him opportunities. His K’s are way below the major league average at 3.69 and his walks are above the major league average at 3.61. He is also a fly ball pitcher. Not much to like here. Pavano is having an average season after being out most of the last 3 years due to injury. His indicators are pretty good and he has been throwing well over the last few months. He does occasionally get lit up, and that has really hurt his overall numbers. I doubt the Indians will light him up, and the Twins should be able to cross the plate a few times against Sowers.
In the second game Jason Hammel is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Hammel is turning into a solid middle of the rotation starter, and has been throwing well as of late. But I do not think he will out duel the rested Lincecum, who had his last start skipped due to a stiff lower back. Lincecum should have a little extra on his pitches and I really would not be surprised to see him go the distance in this must win game. The kid is so competitive that once he’s out there on the mound he will be fine.
Bet
$16 MIN -160
$36 SF -180
Monday, September 14, 2009
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Baltimore Wins, Up $26
Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)
Today's Games
None
I don't see any baseball games I like and week 1 of the NFL is way too unpredictable.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Kansas City Wins In 12
It looks like I got a little lucky in winning $30, but Greinke should have easily picked up the win considering how dominant he was. He only allowed 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 6 and walking none. Masterson on the other hand was getting out of trouble all night, allowing 8 base runners in 6 innings. He had some key double plays and that is why it is an advantage to be a ground ball pitcher. If he could just learn how to throw more strikes he will be pretty good. The same goes for Fausto Carmona.
Portfolio: $1066 (15.7% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)
Today’s Games
Baltimore (+260) @ New York Yankees (-320)
In the only game today the Orioles top prospect Brian Matusz is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Matusz has a 5.26 ERA in his brief time in the majors, but has shown promise as of late. Over his last 3 starts his indicators are really strong. He’s strikes out a decent amount while being stingy on the free pass. After allowing a ton of hits in his first few starts, it looks like that is normalized now. He is also left handed and facing the Yankees for the first time. Burnett has not pitched up to expectations and has struggled recently, except for his last start. His K’s are there, but he is walking way too many and his ground ball rate is the lowest of his career and that has lead to giving up the long ball. He has the stuff to go out and dominate on any given start, but I actually think Matusz will hold his own facing the Yankees for the first time. The forecast calls for rain so anything can happen pitching wise, but at +260 I think this is a great value play.
Bet
$10 Bal +260
Friday, September 11, 2009
No Action Yesterday, S&P 500 Continues Steady Gain
The NFL season kicked off last night with the Steelers winning 13-10 and the Titans covering. Tennessee has too good of a defense to be getting 7 points. I will be betting on football games, both college and NFL, but both are really tough to bet on early in the season. I will be betting more on NFL. I am working on a statistical probability system for the NFL, and if it ends up working I won’t be using it until midway through the season. I will still be betting on games before that, just not with my system. I am attempting to find a correlation between certain team stats, winning percentage, and margin of victory.
Over the past few years I have picked NFL games over a 50% clip. Two years ago I was around 65% for the season and hit 16 games in a row over a 4 week span. The probability of hitting 16 games in a row is 1 in 65536. Also, a tip for you bettors, stay away from parlays.
Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)
S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)
Today’s Games
Kansas City (-140) @ Cleveland (+120)
In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Justin Masterson. Grienke is the leading American League CY Young candidate and has been on top of his game lately. He has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts, a span of 17 innings. His indicators tell me it’s legit. Masterson has struggled with his control since being traded to the Indians. He is a heavy ground ball pitcher to strikes out his fair share, so he has the potential to be pretty good. He just has to improve his control. I like the Royals as Greinke carved up the Indians in his last start, striking out 15, and they are playing well as they are coming off a 3 game sweep of the division leading Tigers.
Bet
$42 KC -140
Over the past few years I have picked NFL games over a 50% clip. Two years ago I was around 65% for the season and hit 16 games in a row over a 4 week span. The probability of hitting 16 games in a row is 1 in 65536. Also, a tip for you bettors, stay away from parlays.
Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)
S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)
Today’s Games
Kansas City (-140) @ Cleveland (+120)
In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Justin Masterson. Grienke is the leading American League CY Young candidate and has been on top of his game lately. He has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts, a span of 17 innings. His indicators tell me it’s legit. Masterson has struggled with his control since being traded to the Indians. He is a heavy ground ball pitcher to strikes out his fair share, so he has the potential to be pretty good. He just has to improve his control. I like the Royals as Greinke carved up the Indians in his last start, striking out 15, and they are playing well as they are coming off a 3 game sweep of the division leading Tigers.
Bet
$42 KC -140
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Two Wins, $20
Wainwright dominated, Nolasco pitched solid and their offenses scored enough for both to pick up wins.
Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)
S&P 500: $1033 (12.2% return)
Today's Games
None
Very light schedule today.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Back To Normal Life
After being away from everything for 5 days I am now back on a normal schedule.
Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)
Today’s Games
St. Louis (-200) @ Milwaukee (+170)
Florida (-140) @ New York Mets (+120)
In the first game Adam Wainwright is matched up against Jeff Suppan. Wainwright is in the talks for the NL CY Young, but was roughed up by Pittsburgh is his last start although he did pick up the win. This doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about and he should bounce back against the Brewers, a team who he has dominated this year. Suppan is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he shouldn’t be able to keep that up. His K’s are way down and his BB’s are uncharacteristically high and that explains his 1.94 WHIP over that span. He might be pitching with a dead arm or slightly hurt, and that does not bode well against the division leading Cardinals.
In the second game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Pat Misch. Nolasco has been pretty solid in the second half of the season and his K and BB rates are ace caliber. He has suffered from a low strand rate lately so his ERA of 4.38 over his last 4 starts should probably be lower. Misch is making only his third start this year after appearing in 19 games out of the pen. He won’t miss a lot of bats, walk too many, or get a lot of ground balls, but he is left handed. Nolasco should have a decent outing against a light hitting Mets team as the Marlins need to pick it up if they want to play into October.
Bets
$20 STL -200
$14 FLA -140
I’ll ease into action after being away.
Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)
Today’s Games
St. Louis (-200) @ Milwaukee (+170)
Florida (-140) @ New York Mets (+120)
In the first game Adam Wainwright is matched up against Jeff Suppan. Wainwright is in the talks for the NL CY Young, but was roughed up by Pittsburgh is his last start although he did pick up the win. This doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about and he should bounce back against the Brewers, a team who he has dominated this year. Suppan is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he shouldn’t be able to keep that up. His K’s are way down and his BB’s are uncharacteristically high and that explains his 1.94 WHIP over that span. He might be pitching with a dead arm or slightly hurt, and that does not bode well against the division leading Cardinals.
In the second game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Pat Misch. Nolasco has been pretty solid in the second half of the season and his K and BB rates are ace caliber. He has suffered from a low strand rate lately so his ERA of 4.38 over his last 4 starts should probably be lower. Misch is making only his third start this year after appearing in 19 games out of the pen. He won’t miss a lot of bats, walk too many, or get a lot of ground balls, but he is left handed. Nolasco should have a decent outing against a light hitting Mets team as the Marlins need to pick it up if they want to play into October.
Bets
$20 STL -200
$14 FLA -140
I’ll ease into action after being away.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Still on Vacation
This is the first time I've been by a computer the last few days and I probably wont be by one the next 2 days, so I doubt I'll have any games before Wednesday. That was a great pitching duel between Pedro and Lincecum on Thursday, too bas for me Pedro came out on top.
Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1016 (10.3% return)
Today's Games
None
Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1016 (10.3% return)
Today's Games
None
Thursday, September 3, 2009
CC Dominates, Yankees Win
It took until the 9th inning for the Yankees offense to wake up, but CC pitched well enough anyway, giving up 1 run in 7 and striking out 9. $20 is not too good of a return off $48, but I’ll take it.
Portfolio: $1044 (13.4% return)
S&P 500: $995 (8% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (-140) @ Philadelphia (+120)
In the only game I like today Tim Lincecum is matched up against Pedro Martinez. I have written about Lincecum enough that you should know what I think of him. He is coming off an 8 inning, 0 run performance against the Rockies and looks to continue that at Philadelphia. He does not really allow the long ball and that is one of the reasons why I like him here. The Phillies strikeout a decent amount and that’s not good news when facing the major league leader in that category. Also, Lincecum carved them up pretty good last month. Martinez has had 4 starts since being signed by the Phillies and none of them were anything special. He’s also not expected to go deep into games. He’s obviously lost most of his stuff, but his control his still there. Not that it really matters since the Giants make every pitcher look like a control freak. I like the Giants here and look for Lincecum to reach the 10 K mark. What a pitching matchup this would have been if the Pedro of 1999 was facing the Lincecum of today. I would definitely pay to see that one.
I will be out of town from Friday until Tuesday and I’m not sure how much I will be able to update my blog. I generally need some time to look over the games and I’m not sure if I’ll be able to do that. Also, only a week away from football season.
Bets
$28 SF -140
Portfolio: $1044 (13.4% return)
S&P 500: $995 (8% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (-140) @ Philadelphia (+120)
In the only game I like today Tim Lincecum is matched up against Pedro Martinez. I have written about Lincecum enough that you should know what I think of him. He is coming off an 8 inning, 0 run performance against the Rockies and looks to continue that at Philadelphia. He does not really allow the long ball and that is one of the reasons why I like him here. The Phillies strikeout a decent amount and that’s not good news when facing the major league leader in that category. Also, Lincecum carved them up pretty good last month. Martinez has had 4 starts since being signed by the Phillies and none of them were anything special. He’s also not expected to go deep into games. He’s obviously lost most of his stuff, but his control his still there. Not that it really matters since the Giants make every pitcher look like a control freak. I like the Giants here and look for Lincecum to reach the 10 K mark. What a pitching matchup this would have been if the Pedro of 1999 was facing the Lincecum of today. I would definitely pay to see that one.
I will be out of town from Friday until Tuesday and I’m not sure how much I will be able to update my blog. I generally need some time to look over the games and I’m not sure if I’ll be able to do that. Also, only a week away from football season.
Bets
$28 SF -140
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $1024 (11.2% return)
S&P 500: $998 (8.4% return)
Today’s Games
New York Yankees (-240) @ Baltimore (+200)
In the only game I like today CC Sabathia is matched up against Jason Berken. Sabathia is pitching as well as anyone in the game right now, and I look for it to continue. His K rate is elevated and his BB rate is depressed at about the same rate as the last 2 years when we won a CY Young and was a contender for one in less than a half season at Milwaukee. When he gets in the groove he tends to stay there until there is pressure and that’s when he loses his control. He has been a horrible big game pitcher over his career. This game has almost no pressure so his dominance should continue. The youngster Berken does not strikeout too many and gives up a decent amount of hits, so that tells me he’s doesn’t have dominant stuff. The Yankees should have no problem crossing the plate multiple times off him.
The lines are not looking too favorable right now. The favorites are favored by too much and the underdogs are usually youngsters with not a lot of history. I expect this to be the case the rest of the season, so I will be patient and wait for solid favorites or good value underdogs.
Bets
$48 NYY -240
S&P 500: $998 (8.4% return)
Today’s Games
New York Yankees (-240) @ Baltimore (+200)
In the only game I like today CC Sabathia is matched up against Jason Berken. Sabathia is pitching as well as anyone in the game right now, and I look for it to continue. His K rate is elevated and his BB rate is depressed at about the same rate as the last 2 years when we won a CY Young and was a contender for one in less than a half season at Milwaukee. When he gets in the groove he tends to stay there until there is pressure and that’s when he loses his control. He has been a horrible big game pitcher over his career. This game has almost no pressure so his dominance should continue. The youngster Berken does not strikeout too many and gives up a decent amount of hits, so that tells me he’s doesn’t have dominant stuff. The Yankees should have no problem crossing the plate multiple times off him.
The lines are not looking too favorable right now. The favorites are favored by too much and the underdogs are usually youngsters with not a lot of history. I expect this to be the case the rest of the season, so I will be patient and wait for solid favorites or good value underdogs.
Bets
$48 NYY -240
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Marlins Lose, Down $15
Josh Johnson had a no hitter until 2 outs in the 6th, then let up 3 runs in the 7th which was enough for the Braves to win behind a solid pitching performance from Kenshin Kawakami. I'm pretty sure Kawakami got me when I bet against him last month when he faced Lincecum. It still looks like he will be bumped out of the rotation for Tim Hudson. This leaves the Braves with the deepest staff of quality pitchers in the game.
Portfolio: $1024 (11.2% return)
S&P 500: $1021 (10.9% return)
Today's Games
None
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