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I was out of town for the 4th and did not follow baseball at all. Here's the updated financial situation.

Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $899 (-2.4% return)

Today's Game

San Diego (+140) @ Arizona (-160)

Kevin Correia is matched up against Doug Davis in the only game I like today. Correia was roughed up in his last start giving up 6 ER in 5 innings, but his in his previous 5 starts he went 4-1 while giving up 2 ER or less 4 times. His strikeout, walk, and hit rates all look normal but it seems like he is having problems leaving runners on base. His ground ball rate is the best of his career, so his 4.58 ERA should be a little lower. Doug Davis has had some back luck in only going 3-8 with with a 3.15 ERA, but he has gotten lucky in terms of hit rate. His hit rate of 8.18 is way below his career average of 9.35, and his ground ball rate is the lowest of his career. Davis also seems the be leaving a lot of runners on base. Given his low hit rate and high strand rate, his ERA should start to rise and wins will be even harder to come by. At +140, I like the Padres in a battle between 2 bad teams.

Bets

$20 SD +140