Games Start Back Up Today

The S&P 500 continued to makes its run during the All-Star break.

Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $931 (1.1% return)

Today's Games

Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Washington Nationals (+110)
Houston (+140) @ LA Dodgers (-150)

Rich Harden is matched up against John Lannan in the first game I like tonight. Harden strikes out a lot of batters, but also walks his fair share. He is striking out batters at a high rate of 10.09 K/9 this year, and that is up a little from his career average but down a little from last year. He is walking a little more batters this year, but his last 3 starts are right in line with his career average. The one thing that has hurt Harden this year is his hit rate. He is giving up 9.49 H/9, and 15.43 H/9 over his last 3 starts. His career average is 7.33, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is right on his career average. Harden has also been hurt by the long ball, giving up way more than his average. Good thing for him that Washington is one of the worst home run hitting ballparks in the majors and the Nationals are a below average home run hitting team. All those indicators tell me that Harden is the victim of bad luck and his numbers should start to turn around. Lannan is a lefty that gets a lot of ground balls. He does not strikeout many, and his strikeout rate of 4.02 K/9 is way down from last years rate of 5.79 K/9. Over his last 3 starts his rate is even worse at 2.22 K/9. He doesn't walk many and has shown good control over his last 3 starts. His hits are up a little, but his ground ball rate is down a little. I think the right handed heavy Cubs at -120 are a pretty good play here.

In the second game, Wandy Rodriguez is going up against Randy Wolf. Both lefties have put together solid seasons, with Rodriguez breaking out and Wolf reemerging. Rodriguez’s strikeout, walk, and hit rates are basically the same as last years, and he has really improved his ground ball rate. His rates indicate he’s a solid pitcher, and he is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wolf has also been pitching well as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. His strikeout rate is little down a little from his career average, but so is his walk rate. The one thing that has helped him out this year is his hit rate. It’s at 7.93 for the year compared to his career average of 8.71. He hasn’t had a hit rate under 8 since 2003, and his current rate is probably unsustainable due to the fact that his ground ball rate is right on his career average. The Astros have been struggling to score runs this year while the Dodgers have the second best offense in the National League. Even with that being said, I think the Astros at +140 are a solid play with Rodriguez pitching.

Bets

$36 CHC -120
$20 HOU +140

I will be on the road all day tomorrow so if I post it'll probably be right before game time.