Giants Finally Win Low Scoring Affair

Matt Cain and Zach Duke both pitched well, but Cain was a little better and the Giants offense finally decided to score a little. I won $20.

Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)

Today’s Games

San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)

The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.

The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.

Bets

$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110