Friday, July 10, 2009

Rockies Win

The Rockies won 7-6 to add $20 to my portfolio. Both Hanson and Cook struggled, but the Rockies offense and bullpen were the difference.

Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $883 (-4.1% return)

Today's Game

Pittsburgh (+140) @ Philadelphia (-160)

Zach Duke is matched up against Joe Blanton in the only game I like today. The lefty Duke is a finesse ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout or walk many. His K/9 and BB/9 are normal, but his hit rate is depressed at 8.77 H/9 compared to a career average of 10.64 H/9. This will correct and is showing signs as he has given up 20 hits in his last 19 innings. Another thing that doesn't bode well for Duke is that he is inducing ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. Also, being lefty doesn't worry me against the Phillies as they have been swinging hot bats as of late. Blanton has medicore numbers at 5-4 with a 4.69 ERA, but is pitching well as of late. His K/9 rate is the highest of his career, and this is probably due to the switch to the National League. His H/9 and BB/9 are right along his career averages, but his ground ball rate is down. This is a problem in a homerun happy Philly ballpark, and he allowed a lot of homeruns early in the year. He has recently let up on the homeruns, allowing 2 in his last 19 1/3 innings, and the Pirates have hit the second least homeruns in the majors. So I'm not too worried about homeruns by the Pirates in this game. The Phillies have been playing well as of late and the Pirates have been the opposite. I generally dont' like to bet on games with this heavy of a favorite, but I think the Phillies are a pretty good bet to win.

Bets

$32 PHI -160

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