Sunday, July 19, 2009

Phillies/Marlins Postponed

My bet was void last night due to the game being postponed.

Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)

Today's Game

San Francisco (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-100)

In the one game I like today Matt Cain is matched up against Zach Duke. Cain is a solid pitcher who's strikeout, walk, hit, and ground ball rates are all normal. He is a fly ball pitcher who benefits from playing in San Francisco, but PNC should be good to him also as it is big pitchers park. His ERA of 2.38 is a little low and that is due to him leaving a higher than normal percentage of runners on base. The lefty Duke is an average ground ball pitcher who's been benefiting from a low hit rate. This is odd since he's getting ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. The Pirates defense is better than years past, but not good enough to save him 2 hits per nine. His strikeout and walk rate are right on career averages. Pittsburgh is going for the sweep against a veteran Giants team that has scored 1 run in the last 23 innings. The Pirates offense has not been much better, scoring 4 runs in that time. Both pitchers ERA are better than they should be, but I think Cain's is more sustainable. This could be another low scoring affair, but I think the Giants will prevail this time as they don't want to get swept. I have nothing against Zach Duke as it seems I bet against him a lot, but he is pitching over his head and the lines do not reflect that.

Bets

$22 SF -110

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