The Tribe Stays Hot

The Indians completed the sweep of the Mariners yesterday to bring my portfolio up $20.

Portfolio: $979 (6.3% return)
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)

Today’s Games

Houston (+130) @ Chicago Cubs (-150)
Cleveland (+140) @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)

In the first game Wandy Rodriguez is matched up against Carlos Zambrano. Rodriguez is having a solid season and you can see my analysis on him from 7/16. Not much has changed as he is 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA while only walking 3 batters in his last 3 starts. Zambrano is having a pretty normal year for him. His strikeout and walk rates are right on career averages, but his hit rate is up due to a drop in ground balls. He is giving up home runs at a lower rate than normal, but that should not continue as his ground ball ratio has really dropped and is the lowest in his career by far. Even though Houston is coming off 2 straight losses while the Cubs are coming off a 3 game sweep, I look for the Astros to right their ship in a battle of number ones.

In the second game Carl Pavano is matched up against Joe Saunders. Pavano has good indicators, but seems to be the victim of bad luck. His strikeout rate is the highest of his career and his walk rate is the second lowest of his career. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher and his ratio is right on his career average. What has hurt him is his high hit rate and home run rate. This could be an indicator that he is losing his stuff, but his strikeout rate tells me this is just bad luck. Saunders doesn’t have great stuff and mainly gets by on the fact that he is a lefty. His strikeout rate is low at 4.94 K/9 while his walk rate has increased this year by 41%. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher who’s right on his career average. The Indians have been hitting the heck out of the ball lately and are facing their 9th left handed starter in a row in Saunders, so he shouldn’t throw their rhythm off. I doubt this will be a low scoring game and I think the Indians have more firepower.

Bets

$20 HOU +130
$20 CLE +140