No Action

I didn’t like any games and the S&P 500 gained a little.

Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)

Today’s Games

Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Colorado (-150) @ Cincinnati (+130)

The first game has the veteran John Smoltz matched up against Jeremy Guthrie. Smoltz has gotten off to a rough start with a 1-4 record and 7.04 ERA, but by looking into his numbers I can see things turning around. His strikeouts are still there and so is his control. What has hurt him is his high hit rate, which is 50% higher than his career average. His ground ball rate is down a little so it is expected he will give up more hits, but not this much. I would not be surprised if he strung together some good starts soon. Guthrie has been struggling all year with a 7-9 record and 5.21 ERA. His other numbers don’t look too good either. His strikeouts are slightly down and his walks are slightly up. He also has the lowest ground ball rate in his career and actually has been giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year. This has lead to a higher hit rate and more home runs, not good. I look for Smoltz’s luck to turn around and the Red Sox to pick up the victory.

The second game has Aaron Cook going up against Justin Lehr. Cook is a heavy ground ball pitcher who always keeps his team in the game. He will very rarely go out and dominate, but he will also very rarely get rocked. He has upped his strikeouts by about 1 K/9 from his career average, and his walks and ground balls are right in line with his averages. Lehr hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and isn’t anything special. His minor league numbers won’t make you look twice and the Rockies should have a field day against a pitcher making his first start in 3 years. I also like the fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a band box and Colorado can hit with the best of them. The Rockies played a double header and had to travel yesterday, and this is probably the reason why the line is at -150 compared to -200. I’ll take my chances they’ll have enough energy as they are pushing for a playoff spot against the slumping Reds.

Bets

$26 BOS -130
$30 COL -150