No Action

I didn’t like any games and the S&P 500 gained a little.

Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)

Today’s Games

Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Colorado (-150) @ Cincinnati (+130)

The first game has the veteran John Smoltz matched up against Jeremy Guthrie. Smoltz has gotten off to a rough start with a 1-4 record and 7.04 ERA, but by looking into his numbers I can see things turning around. His strikeouts are still there and so is his control. What has hurt him is his high hit rate, which is 50% higher than his career average. His ground ball rate is down a little so it is expected he will give up more hits, but not this much. I would not be surprised if he strung together some good starts soon. Guthrie has been struggling all year with a 7-9 record and 5.21 ERA. His other numbers don’t look too good either. His strikeouts are slightly down and his walks are slightly up. He also has the lowest ground ball rate in his career and actually has been giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year. This has lead to a higher hit rate and more home runs, not good. I look for Smoltz’s luck to turn around and the Red Sox to pick up the victory.

The second game has Aaron Cook going up against Justin Lehr. Cook is a heavy ground ball pitcher who always keeps his team in the game. He will very rarely go out and dominate, but he will also very rarely get rocked. He has upped his strikeouts by about 1 K/9 from his career average, and his walks and ground balls are right in line with his averages. Lehr hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and isn’t anything special. His minor league numbers won’t make you look twice and the Rockies should have a field day against a pitcher making his first start in 3 years. I also like the fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a band box and Colorado can hit with the best of them. The Rockies played a double header and had to travel yesterday, and this is probably the reason why the line is at -150 compared to -200. I’ll take my chances they’ll have enough energy as they are pushing for a playoff spot against the slumping Reds.

Bets

$26 BOS -130
$30 COL -150

No Games Last Night

No action last night, but staying put has me ahead of the S&P 500 now.

Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $975 (5.9% return)

Today's Games

None

Check back later as there are a few lines that are not posted yet.

Indians Lose, Down $10

The Tribe came up just short in their ninth inning comeback.

Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $980 (6.4% return)

Today's Games

None

Astros Lose, Indians Win

I split last night to gain $8, and that’s what I like about baseball. I’m also outpacing the S&P 500 again.

Portfolio: $987 (7.2% return)
S&P 500: $982 (6.6% return)

Today’s Game

Cleveland (+180) @ Los Angeles Angels (-210)

In the only game I like today David Huff is matched up against Jered Weaver. The inexperienced Huff is pretty erratic, but has shown good control in his first stint in the majors. He doesn’t have the stuff to pile up strikeouts and doesn’t throw a heavy ball, but he is a lefty. Weaver is having a solid year with a 10-3 record and 3.57 ERA. He has good control and strikes out a little more than the league average. He has a low hit rate, but this is starting to correct up since he is giving up more fly balls than his career average. Both pitchers have struggled over their last 3 starts, and I look for this to be another slug fest. The Indians have been hitting the cover off the ball lately as they racked up 20 hits last night. At +180, I think it’s a solid play to put a little on a team swinging the bat as good as the Indians have.

Bet

$10 CLE +180

The Tribe Stays Hot

The Indians completed the sweep of the Mariners yesterday to bring my portfolio up $20.

Portfolio: $979 (6.3% return)
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)

Today’s Games

Houston (+130) @ Chicago Cubs (-150)
Cleveland (+140) @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)

In the first game Wandy Rodriguez is matched up against Carlos Zambrano. Rodriguez is having a solid season and you can see my analysis on him from 7/16. Not much has changed as he is 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA while only walking 3 batters in his last 3 starts. Zambrano is having a pretty normal year for him. His strikeout and walk rates are right on career averages, but his hit rate is up due to a drop in ground balls. He is giving up home runs at a lower rate than normal, but that should not continue as his ground ball ratio has really dropped and is the lowest in his career by far. Even though Houston is coming off 2 straight losses while the Cubs are coming off a 3 game sweep, I look for the Astros to right their ship in a battle of number ones.

In the second game Carl Pavano is matched up against Joe Saunders. Pavano has good indicators, but seems to be the victim of bad luck. His strikeout rate is the highest of his career and his walk rate is the second lowest of his career. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher and his ratio is right on his career average. What has hurt him is his high hit rate and home run rate. This could be an indicator that he is losing his stuff, but his strikeout rate tells me this is just bad luck. Saunders doesn’t have great stuff and mainly gets by on the fact that he is a lefty. His strikeout rate is low at 4.94 K/9 while his walk rate has increased this year by 41%. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher who’s right on his career average. The Indians have been hitting the heck out of the ball lately and are facing their 9th left handed starter in a row in Saunders, so he shouldn’t throw their rhythm off. I doubt this will be a low scoring game and I think the Indians have more firepower.

Bets

$20 HOU +130
$20 CLE +140

No Action Last Night

Portfolio: $959 (4.1% return)
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)

Today's Game

Cleveland (-140) @ Seattle (+130)

Cliff Lee is matched up against Jason Vargas in this game where the Indians are going for the sweep. The reigning CY Young winner Lee is having a solid season with a 3.17 ERA. His strikeouts, walks, and ground balls are about the same as last years while his hit rate is elevated a little. He is coming off back to back complete game victories where he only allowed 1 run each time. Vargas is an average pitcher in the sense that his strikeout, walk, hit, and ground ball ratios are all about the major league average. The Indians bats have been hot lately and I look for them to complete the sweep with their ace on the mound.

Bet

$28 CLE -140

Back On The Winning Side

The Marlins won me $28 as Josh Johnson pitched pretty well and Clayton Kershaw came back to earth a little bit.

Portfolio: $959 (4.1% return)
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)

Today's Games

None

S&P 500 Gaining

The S&P 500 gained $22 yesterday to distance itself from my portfolio.

Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $976 (6% return)

Today’s Game

Florida (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)

In the game I like today Josh Johnson is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Johnson is having a great year after missing most of the last two years due to injury. His 8-2 record and 2.74 ERA look legit. He strikes out his fair share at 7.66 K/9 and doesn’t walk too many at 2.46 BB/9. He is also a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t give up the long ball. Kershaw is having a really good season too with an 8-5 record and a 2.95 ERA, but it doesn’t look to stay that way. He strikes out a decent amount at 8.77 K/9, but he walks way too many at 5.06 BB/9. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, but doesn’t give up the long ball. He has really benefitted from an extremely low hit rate, especially in his last 3 starts where he went 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA. He has really good stuff, and his hit rate will tend to be lower than normal because of that and the fact that he is effectively wild, but his 5.91 H/9 rate is unsustainable. Once he learns how to throw more strikes he should be dominant, but he’s not there yet. Both teams are playing well and are coming off sweeps. At +140, I think the Marlins are a good value play with their ace on the mound.

Bets

$20 FLA +140

It's Getting Ugly, Giants Lose 4-2

The Giants offense only managed to score 2 runs and Lincecum didn't pitch too well, although he did strikeout 9 in 5 innings. Dropping $44 almost brings my portfolio back to even and below the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $954 (3.6% return)

Today's Games

None

I'm taking a day off due to my losing habits lately.

On A Cold Streak, Red Sox Lose Again

Beckett pitched well enough to win, but the Red Sox offense continued to slump. It’s been a rough few days, but my gains are still positive and I’m beating the S&P 500 by 2.2%.

Portfolio: $975 (5.9% return)
S&P 500: $955 (3.7% return)

Today’s Game

San Francisco (-110) @ Atlanta (-120)

Tim Lincecum is going up against Jair Jurrjens in a matchup of two good, young pitchers. If you have read previous posts or look at past analysis, I am pretty high on Lincecum. I bet on him last game at -150 and lost, and I said that we would probably never see a better line for him the rest of the season. Well, the Giants have been slumping lately, especially their offense while losing 5 of 6. This has set up a perfect situation to bet on. Lincecum should put up a pretty solid start against an average Braves offense in a pitchers ballpark, so the Giants won’t need much runs to win. Jurrjens has been pitching pretty well lately, but it doesn’t look like he can keep up it up. His 2.77 ERA is low considering that his strikeouts are down, walks are up, and ground balls are down. He is benefitting by a low hit rate and high runners stranded rate, both of which are mainly luck. Look for the Giants offense to wake up and score a handful of runs in an easy win.

Bets

$44 SF -110

Dropped Both

It’s never good when you go 0-fer. The S&P 500 also made a little gain to top off a bad night.

Portfolio: $1007 (9.3% return)
S&P 500: $951 (3.3% return)

Today’s Game

Boston (-160) @ Texas (+140)

In today’s game Josh Beckett is matched up against Tommy Hunter. Beckett is having a solid season with an 11-3 record and a 3.35 ERA. He has started to get more ground balls and his hit rate has dropped because of that. He struggled with more walks than normal earlier this year, but has since corrected that and it is not a concern. He’s been on top of his game lately and I look for him to pitch well after his team lost yesterday. Hunter is a young pitcher making his 8th career start. He had a solid but not spectacular minor league career, showing good control. He strikeout rates were average and it doesn’t look like he’s either a heavy ground ball or fly ball pitcher. Either way, the veteran Red Sox lineup will make him work and this should be an easy win for the Sox with their ace on the mound.

Bets

$32 BOS -160

Giants Finally Win Low Scoring Affair

Matt Cain and Zach Duke both pitched well, but Cain was a little better and the Giants offense finally decided to score a little. I won $20.

Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)

Today’s Games

San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)

The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.

The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.

Bets

$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110

Phillies/Marlins Postponed

My bet was void last night due to the game being postponed.

Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)

Today's Game

San Francisco (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-100)

In the one game I like today Matt Cain is matched up against Zach Duke. Cain is a solid pitcher who's strikeout, walk, hit, and ground ball rates are all normal. He is a fly ball pitcher who benefits from playing in San Francisco, but PNC should be good to him also as it is big pitchers park. His ERA of 2.38 is a little low and that is due to him leaving a higher than normal percentage of runners on base. The lefty Duke is an average ground ball pitcher who's been benefiting from a low hit rate. This is odd since he's getting ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. The Pirates defense is better than years past, but not good enough to save him 2 hits per nine. His strikeout and walk rate are right on career averages. Pittsburgh is going for the sweep against a veteran Giants team that has scored 1 run in the last 23 innings. The Pirates offense has not been much better, scoring 4 runs in that time. Both pitchers ERA are better than they should be, but I think Cain's is more sustainable. This could be another low scoring affair, but I think the Giants will prevail this time as they don't want to get swept. I have nothing against Zach Duke as it seems I bet against him a lot, but he is pitching over his head and the lines do not reflect that.

Bets

$22 SF -110

Giants Lose 2-1 in 14

I was right about the Pirates not scoring many runs, but the Giants offense was even worse. Their only run came off a Pittsburgh error. At -150, I still think that was one of the better bets I've seen lately. I'm not sure how many times we'll get better than -150 on Lincecum the rest of the year.

Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)

Today's Game

Philadelphia (+110) @ Florida (-120)

In the only game I like today Joe Blanton is matched up against Josh Johnson. The strikeout and walk rates of both pitcher's are the basically the same. The main difference between the two is that Johnson has a little better stuff and gets more ground balls. Both have also been pitching well as of late, and their rates look pretty normal. The Phillies have a better offense and defense, and that is why I like them at +110.

Bets

$20 PHI +110

Pretty Good Night

I hit both games yesterday to bring my portfolio up $58.

Portfolio: $1076 (16.8% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)

Today's Game

San Francisco (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)

Tim Lincecum is matched up against Paul Maholm in what should be a win for the Giants. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion and at -150 I think this is a great bet. I do not know why the line is so low since he is facing a below average hitting team. My guess is because he struggled a little in the All-Star game and that was only 3 days ago. But Lincecum is a dominant strikeout pitcher who happens to be on top of his game. He doesn't walk too many and gets ground balls. Maholm is a finesse lefty who doesn't strikeout or walk many. He is a ground ball pitcher, but this year he is getting around 20% fewer ground balls. In Lincecum's last 3 starts he is 3-0 with a 1.19 and 25 K's in 22 2/3 innings. Maholm is 2-0 with a 5.19 ERA and 5 K's in 17 1/3 innings. I don't think the Pirates will be scoring too many runs tonight. At -150 I think this is a steal.

Bets

$45 SF -150

Games Start Back Up Today

The S&P 500 continued to makes its run during the All-Star break.

Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $931 (1.1% return)

Today's Games

Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Washington Nationals (+110)
Houston (+140) @ LA Dodgers (-150)

Rich Harden is matched up against John Lannan in the first game I like tonight. Harden strikes out a lot of batters, but also walks his fair share. He is striking out batters at a high rate of 10.09 K/9 this year, and that is up a little from his career average but down a little from last year. He is walking a little more batters this year, but his last 3 starts are right in line with his career average. The one thing that has hurt Harden this year is his hit rate. He is giving up 9.49 H/9, and 15.43 H/9 over his last 3 starts. His career average is 7.33, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is right on his career average. Harden has also been hurt by the long ball, giving up way more than his average. Good thing for him that Washington is one of the worst home run hitting ballparks in the majors and the Nationals are a below average home run hitting team. All those indicators tell me that Harden is the victim of bad luck and his numbers should start to turn around. Lannan is a lefty that gets a lot of ground balls. He does not strikeout many, and his strikeout rate of 4.02 K/9 is way down from last years rate of 5.79 K/9. Over his last 3 starts his rate is even worse at 2.22 K/9. He doesn't walk many and has shown good control over his last 3 starts. His hits are up a little, but his ground ball rate is down a little. I think the right handed heavy Cubs at -120 are a pretty good play here.

In the second game, Wandy Rodriguez is going up against Randy Wolf. Both lefties have put together solid seasons, with Rodriguez breaking out and Wolf reemerging. Rodriguez’s strikeout, walk, and hit rates are basically the same as last years, and he has really improved his ground ball rate. His rates indicate he’s a solid pitcher, and he is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wolf has also been pitching well as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. His strikeout rate is little down a little from his career average, but so is his walk rate. The one thing that has helped him out this year is his hit rate. It’s at 7.93 for the year compared to his career average of 8.71. He hasn’t had a hit rate under 8 since 2003, and his current rate is probably unsustainable due to the fact that his ground ball rate is right on his career average. The Astros have been struggling to score runs this year while the Dodgers have the second best offense in the National League. Even with that being said, I think the Astros at +140 are a solid play with Rodriguez pitching.

Bets

$36 CHC -120
$20 HOU +140

I will be on the road all day tomorrow so if I post it'll probably be right before game time.

S&P 500 Up 2.5%

Looks like the S&P 500 is making a run during the All-Star break by gaining $22 yesterday. Here's a chart to see how my portfolio has compared to the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $901 (-2.2% return)

Harang Gets Blasted

I was way off on my prediction of the Reds vs. Mets game yesterday and it cost me $22. Harang lasted only 3 innings while Pelfrey pitched 7 solid. I'm still beating the S&P 500 pretty good.

Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $879 (-4.6% return)

Today's Games

None.

There are no games until Thursday due to the All-Star break.

No Bets Yesterday

Good thing I backed off the games that I originally liked as both lost.

Portfolio: $1040 (12.9% return)
S&P 500: $879 (-4.6% return)

Today's Game

Cincinnati (-110) @ NY Mets (-100)

In the only game I like to today Aaron Harang is matched up against Mike Pelfrey. The Reds ace is 5-8 with a 3.89 ERA. His strikeout rate of 7.7 K/9 is down from his 2006-2007 average of 8.4 K/9, but in his last 4 starts it looks like he is getting that back by striking out 25 in 24 1/3 innings. His low walk rate of 2.11 BB/9 is consistent from the last 5 years, but his hit rate is a little up due to a decrease in ground balls. He gives up the long ball, but not at a higher rate than the last 5 years. The long ball should not be a big factor as the Mets have hit the least amount of home runs in the majors. So other than the decrease in ground balls it looks like he is getting back to his 06-07 form, which were the best years of his career. Pelfrey is an average ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout many, as shown by his 4.61 K/9 rate. He doesn't walk many with 3.34 BB/9, but that is up from his 2.87 BB/9 rate last year and has struggled to find the strike zone in his last 2 starts. His hit rate of 10.31 H/9 is probably a little higher than it should be given that his ground ball rate is up. It looks like Harang is starting to pitch like he did in 06-07 and I look for him to pitch solid today and pickup the win and the series for the Reds.

Bets

$22 CIN -110

Another Win

The Phillies held on 3-2 last night to bring my portfolio up $20, although Lidge did a good job of making things interesting.

Portfolio: $1040 (12.9% return)
S&P 500: $879 (-4.6% return)

Today's Games

None

I actually liked 2 games today and starting writing about them but after I was doing my analysis I backed off. The games I liked were Toronto (-120) over Baltimore and Cincinnati (+130) over the Mets. The reason for backing off of both games were the increased walk rates of Ricky Romero and Johnny Cueto over their last few starts.

Rockies Win

The Rockies won 7-6 to add $20 to my portfolio. Both Hanson and Cook struggled, but the Rockies offense and bullpen were the difference.

Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $883 (-4.1% return)

Today's Game

Pittsburgh (+140) @ Philadelphia (-160)

Zach Duke is matched up against Joe Blanton in the only game I like today. The lefty Duke is a finesse ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout or walk many. His K/9 and BB/9 are normal, but his hit rate is depressed at 8.77 H/9 compared to a career average of 10.64 H/9. This will correct and is showing signs as he has given up 20 hits in his last 19 innings. Another thing that doesn't bode well for Duke is that he is inducing ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. Also, being lefty doesn't worry me against the Phillies as they have been swinging hot bats as of late. Blanton has medicore numbers at 5-4 with a 4.69 ERA, but is pitching well as of late. His K/9 rate is the highest of his career, and this is probably due to the switch to the National League. His H/9 and BB/9 are right along his career averages, but his ground ball rate is down. This is a problem in a homerun happy Philly ballpark, and he allowed a lot of homeruns early in the year. He has recently let up on the homeruns, allowing 2 in his last 19 1/3 innings, and the Pirates have hit the second least homeruns in the majors. So I'm not too worried about homeruns by the Pirates in this game. The Phillies have been playing well as of late and the Pirates have been the opposite. I generally dont' like to bet on games with this heavy of a favorite, but I think the Phillies are a pretty good bet to win.

Bets

$32 PHI -160

Best Bet Was No Bet

Good thing I backed off the 2 games that popped out yesterday. The Diamondbacks look to be heating up and the Royals couldn't hit the rookie left hander even though Greinke pitched solid.

Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $880 (-4.5% return)

Today's Game

Atlanta (+110) @ Colorado (-130)

Today's game has undefeated rookie Tommy Hanson going up against Aaron Cook. Hanson is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA to start off his career, but I believe he is in for his first loss tonight. He has not been striking out batters anywhere near the rate he did in the minors, and his hit rate is pretty low and should begin to tick up. He seems to have found his control in his last 2 starts, after walking 15 in his first 23 innings, but the Rockies are a patient team and will make him work. Aaron Cook has been pitching really good as of late, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 starts. His strikeout rate, walk rate, hit rate, and groundball rate are all normal. Cook struggled early in the season, walking more batters than normal and giving up an unusual amount of home runs, but he has corrected those and has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball lately. Look for Cook pitch solid and Hanson to last no more than 6 innings.

Bet

$26 COL -130

Padres Lose - Down $20

The Diamonbacks pulled out the 4-3 victory with both pitchers pitching well. Correira pitched like he has all season, and Davis continued to strand runners at a high rate by only allowing 2 runs even though he allowed 12 baserunners. The S&P continued it's poor run as of late, so at least it didn't gain on me. I passed on betting against Gallardo last night and it hurt me. He was wild, walking 5 in 5 innings while allowing 4 ER in a loss. He's a good pitcher, he just needs to work on his control.

Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $881 (-4.3% return)

Today's Games

None.

Check back as a may change my mind. Two games jumped out at first, but after looking into them I changed my mind. The Padres jumped out again at +160 with Chad Gaudin facing Max Scherzer and the Diamondbacks. The reason I backed away from this is that the Diamondbacks seem to be hitting their stride lately. Both Gaudin and Scherzer are inconsistent, so it's odd for the Diamondbacks to be favored by that much (-180). The other game that jumped out was Kansas City (-135) @ Detroit (+115). Greinke, who has 2 complete game wins against Detroit this year, is facing rookie Luke French. The Royals should be favored by more, but their offense is anemic and the fact that they are facing a lefty for the first time can be trouble. I'm staying away from this one.

Back

I was out of town for the 4th and did not follow baseball at all. Here's the updated financial situation.

Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $899 (-2.4% return)

Today's Game

San Diego (+140) @ Arizona (-160)

Kevin Correia is matched up against Doug Davis in the only game I like today. Correia was roughed up in his last start giving up 6 ER in 5 innings, but his in his previous 5 starts he went 4-1 while giving up 2 ER or less 4 times. His strikeout, walk, and hit rates all look normal but it seems like he is having problems leaving runners on base. His ground ball rate is the best of his career, so his 4.58 ERA should be a little lower. Doug Davis has had some back luck in only going 3-8 with with a 3.15 ERA, but he has gotten lucky in terms of hit rate. His hit rate of 8.18 is way below his career average of 9.35, and his ground ball rate is the lowest of his career. Davis also seems the be leaving a lot of runners on base. Given his low hit rate and high strand rate, his ERA should start to rise and wins will be even harder to come by. At +140, I like the Padres in a battle between 2 bad teams.

Bets

$20 SD +140

No Games Today

Ended up gaining $14 last night. I was wrong about Gallardo again as he was dominant, but good thing Pelfrey was even better. And the bad luck continued for Hamels. I don't like any game's on this slow Thursday.

Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $923 (0.2% return)

2-1, Up $13

I was able to gain a little even though the Red Sox blew a 10-1 lead, Scott Baker labored through 5, and Albert Pujols hit 2 homeruns.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)

Today’s Games

New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)

The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.

The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.

Bets

$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110

I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.